TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND THE EXTENSIVE MARGIN

Trade barriers can lead to the disappearance of products and impose huge costs. Allowing for the realistic possibility that imported products are substituted by domestic varieties this paper finds that the cost of protection that allows for disappearance of products, the 'Romer cost,' is higher below a tariff threshold. This threshold depends on the substitutability of domestic for foreign products. This is important for developing countries where inferior technology leads to poor substitutability and traditional calculations underestimate the cost. Analysis of new varieties trade after the Indian liberalization supports the findings in the context of a developing country.     

Ready for capital account convertibility?

This paper investigates whether the impact of capital account convertibility on the long term volatility of economic growth depends on financial development. It estimates a system of three simultaneous equations: mean growth, volatility of growth and financial development. This allows for the study of both, the impact of capital account liberalization on volatility, as well as its direct impact on financial development. Results indicate that economies with low financial development fall prey to excess volatility arising from capital account openness, while capital account openness itself has a significant positive impact on financial development. The results are robust to alternative measures of financial development and volatility and to the removal of outliers.     

Growth in India’s Service Sector: Implications of Structural Breaks

The paper is an attempt to identify the multiple structural breaks in India’s GDP, as well as its main growth enhancing sector i.e., services and its components and subsequently calculate the growth rate in different regimes. The paper uses the Bai-Perron (Econom 66(1), 1998, J Appl Econom 18(1), 2003) methodology of estimating multiple endogenous structural breaks (both pure and partial) in India’s service sector and its components and GDP during 1950–2010. Further, the paper uses the Boyce (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 48:385–391, 1986) methodology of estimating kinked exponential model of the growth rate, and further uses the Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (J Business Econ Stat 10:271–287, 1992) test and the Lumsdaine and Pappel (Rev Econ Stat 79:212–218, 1997) test to check for the stationarity in the presence of structural breaks. The data used in this paper are the components of subsectors of services GDP and GDP at factor cost (with 2004–2005 as base). It is found that there is very little difference between the estimation of pure and partial structural break dates in India’s services GDP and its subsectors and four such breaks have been identified with help of Bai-Perron (Econom 66(1), 1998, J Appl Econom 18(1), 2003) methodology. The Boyce methodology of estimation of growth rates finds that mainly in the third and fourth regimes, the growth rates are highest in the subsectoral as well as at the aggregate levels of services GDP. The Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock test (J Business Econ Stat 10:271–287, 1992) and the extended Lumsdaine and Pappel test (Rev Econ Stat 79:212–218, 1997) cannot negate the presence of unit root in the data, irrespective of the presence of multiple structural breaks. The paper concludes with the identification of four broad regimes of growth of India’s services GDP and in the subsectors with possible explanations thereof.

     

Cost of Protection: A Second Look at the Romer Variety Effect

The welfare loss calculated by Romer (J Dev Econ 43:5-38, 1994) under the assumption that certain import varieties disappear a result of increased protection are an order of magnitude larger than those obtained by any other investigator. In this paper, we will argue that the key source of Romer’s result is the total absence of domestic varieties of the differentiated product. Once we allow the differentiated product to be produces at home, the results change dramatically. This allows for the realistic possibility that domestic production substitutes for imports once tariffs are imposed.     

Vulnerability to spillovers

This paper quantifies the impact of common investors in creating vulnerability through international spillovers in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. A spillover is the impact on a country resulting from changes occurring abroad; domestic economy fundamentals are assumed to remain constant. The impact arises from a purely external shock because of changes in linked countries. A vulnerability index proposed by Kelejian and Mukerji (Pap Reg Sci 90(4):693–702, 2011) is used to measure the spillover. This paper proposes a novel method to split the vulnerability into two parts: one arising from international linkages and another from prevailing domestic conditions determining sensitivity to spillovers. Findings suggest a rising vulnerability index over successive decades, chiefly driven by international linkages.     

Distance to Frontier and New Import Growth

In a panel‐data study involving product‐level import data for 48 developing countries that underwent substantial trade liberalization between 1989 and 2001, this study finds that the growth of trade in new goods imported following major trade liberalization is related to the state of technology that existed just before liberalization. The study develops two new measures of the extensive margin. Findings indicate that greater is the distance of a country from the world technology frontier, the faster is its growth of new goods imports. This indicates a higher cost of trade protection for countries further away from the world technology frontier.