Telematics: Decision Time for Detroit

With implications for navigation, safety, entertainment and vehicle maintenance as well as regulation and infrastructure investment in roads, telematics has the potential to transform driving more than any other innovation for decades. In the already well-established Asian telematics industry, revenue tends to come from extra charges at the time of vehicle-sale, with most subsequent services provided free. The US model has evolved differently, with much of the cost of telematics hardware and software subsidized in the initial vehicle sale price and revenue coming from services used. The decision to invest in telematics is therefore riskier in the US. This article first briefly summarizes the potential of telematics. It then analyzes the investment risks, particularly for automakers. It concludes with recommendations on how the US auto industry can minimize risk and make the most of the opportunities.     

Learning by Consumers in the Demand for Japanese Cars

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of consumer learning over time on the demand for Japanese cars, using both a multinomial logit demand model and the Berry–Levinsohn–Pakes demand model ( Econometrica , vol. 63, 1995, 841–90). The data suggest that learning about particular models, manufacturers, and Japanese cars as a group had a positive impact on the demand for individual models during the 1970s and 1980s.     

Language and ideology: quantitative thematic analysis of New Year speeches given by Czechoslovak and Czech presidents (1949–2011)

The relationship between ideology and language is analyzed by using quantitative linguistic methods to measure the thematic concentration of texts. The assumption is that totalitarianism and democracy represent radically different types of ideology and that this difference will be reflected in different levels of thematic concentration in texts of the same genre. The analysis focuses on the New Year speeches given by Czechoslovak and Czech presidents; these texts were chosen because they represent a relatively clearly delineated genre with a long tradition and because they are one of the most important outlets for the public expression of political opinions by the head of state. The results of statistical tests show that there exist significant differences between the thematic concentrations in the speeches of presidents from the totalitarian period and the period of democracy. The analysis also revealed that the largest differences in thematic concentrations were between the speeches made by the presidents representing the most ideologically polarized positions: the leader of the 1948 communist coup Klement Gottwald and the public face of the 1989 democratic Velvet Revolution Václav Havel.     

Assessing the burden of illness from cervical dystonia using the Toronto Western Spasmodic Torticollis Rating Scale scores and health utility: a meta-analysis of baseline patient-level clinical trial data

Purpose:

This study aimed to explore the burden of illness associated with cervical dystonia (CD), including possible demographic and humanistic correlates of baseline disease severity.

Methods:

The analysis involved the five multinational randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials that had evaluated the efficacy and safety of Dysport® in patients with CD, including assessment using the Toronto Western Spasmodic Torticollis Rating Scale (TWSTRS). Patient-level TWSTRS scores from the individual studies were meta-analysed to estimate disease severity at baseline. One of the studies had reported Short Form-36 (SF-36) Health Survey quality-of-life measures, and these data were used to investigate whether the severity of CD was associated with humanistic outcomes, as measured by health utility. A generalized regression model was then applied to explore potential correlation between TWSTRS scores and utilities.

Results:

The estimated pooled mean baseline severity of CD in clinical trial entrants, as measured by TWSTRS score, was 43.23 (95% CI?=?39.31–47.15). In general, disease severity was significantly greater in patients aged over 40 years (compared to the reference group aged 18–30 years). However, there was no correlation between disease severity and other demographic characteristics (e.g., weight, height, gender). Higher TWSTRS scores correlated with worse health-related quality of life as perceived by patients and was reflected in health utility (R^2?=?0.133).

Conclusions:

This study was able to define TWSTRS scores in patients with CD in terms of associated utility. This approach could help in capturing the disease’s burden through measures that are more tangible than TWSTRS scores to patients, carers, clinicians, and healthcare payers.     

The impact of health care reform on older workers, retirees and employers

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 impacts everyone who uses or pays for the health care system. Among the new law's effects will be changes in older workers' health care choices as they transition from full-time employees to part-time work or other jobs and, ultimately, to retirement, and the retiree health benefit choices facing their employers. This article reviews the major issues surrounding these changes, including those affecting retiree health benefits, benefits for Medicare-eligible retirees and health care options for older Americans not yet eligible for Medicare. The authors conclude that although employers will be reacting in 2010 and 2011 with regard to some issues surrounding FASB ASC 715-60 and the early retiree reinsurance program, employers should consider waiting to make major changes until regulations are issued and the health plans for active employees have been fully vetted.     

Extreme bounds of subjective well-being: economic development and micro determinants of life satisfaction

This article presents a global sensitivity analysis of micro determinants of life satisfaction (LS), a subjective well-being (SWB) measure of quality of life, as it relates to economic development. We test 53 micro variables using extreme bound analysis on a pooled cross-section data from the World Value Survey representing 98 countries between 1989 and 2014. Several standard variables frequently included in SWB regressions are controlled for. The test variables are broadly categorized as demographic, personal–economic, individual traits and values, social attitudes and collectivism, social relationships and perceptions of control. We find subjective health status, household income rank, family savings, religiosity, most perceptions of control and several social attitudes and collectivism measures to be universal LS determinants. Generally, the determinants of LS vary by a country’s level of economic development. In particular, we provide suggestive evidence that as countries develop, certain needs are satisfied and stop being important contributors to LS while others take their place.     

Sharp bounds on change in expected values and variances for single risk analysis in the flood catastrophe model

In the paper we propose a method how to assess sharp bounds on change in the expected value and variance of the individual loss distributions of the risks in the flood catastrophe model. The method does not involve the use of the whole model, only the river discharge distributions and above mentioned loss distribution moments are required. We present the method on a case study inspired by floods in Poland.     

The cost-effectiveness of 5-FU-SA in the treatment of actinic keratoses of the face and scalp in the UK secondary care setting

Objective: The objective of this analysis was to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of Actikerall¹ (5-FU-SA) vs cryotherapy in a secondary care setting in the UK, for lesion-directed treatment in patients with actinic keratoses (AK) of the face and scalp.

Methods: The model was a simple decision tree, with a 6-month time horizon. The perspective was that of the UK National Health Service (NHS). Modeled treatment effects included reported per-patient histological clearance and recurrence rates. Cost inputs comprised professional consultation time and cost of medication. Health-related utility estimation followed previously published methodology. Adverse events were not modeled. The key data and model structural assumptions followed expected UK practice. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess structural and parameter uncertainty.

Results: 5-FU-SA was found to be less costly (?£204) and more effective (+0.001 QALY) in base case and sensitivity analyses. In the probabilistic analysis there was 100% probability of being cost-effective over cryotherapy at £20,000 willingness to pay. Cost of professional time was a key driver of the model outcome. 5-FU-SA remained dominant across a range of scenario analyses, including exploration of assumptions around setting of care.

Limitations: The time horizon of the analysis was short and data were not extrapolated beyond the duration of the clinical trial; however, this approach is consistent with likely follow-up of an AK patient. The clinical outcomes observed in the trial were based on a large proportion of cryotherapy patients undergoing an additional cycle of treatment; this may not occur or be required in an experienced secondary care setting.

Conclusion: 5-FU-SA could be considered as a cost-effective choice for treatment of AK lesions of the face and scalp in secondary and mixed care settings in the UK. Use of 5-FU-SA in patients who would otherwise be managed with cryotherapy has the potential to result in cost savings.     

Gender in banking and mortgage behavior

Compared to men, women, even financial professionals, exhibit higher risk aversion. We exploit random assignment of clients to banking advisors (‘private bankers’) in a large Czech bank to study the effects of advisor gender on the probability of mortgage issuance and on the probability that a newly issued mortgage is insured, which we interpret as corresponding to risk averse mortgage behaviour. Male advisors do not substantially affect the chances that their clients will take a new mortgage. However, the mortgages that they issue are dramatically less likely to be insured, particularly so for female clients who never had an insured loan with the bank.