Vulnerability,shocks and persistence of poverty: estimates for semi‐arid rural South India

This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural households to poverty when a negative crop shock occurs. The analysis is based on the ICRISAT panel survey of households in a semi‐arid region in south India during 1975–84. Using a dynamic panel data model that takes into account effects of crop shocks, an assessment of vulnerability of different groups of households is carried out. What is somewhat surprising is that even sections of relatively affluent households are highly vulnerable to long spells of poverty when severe crop shocks occur. As such crop shocks are frequent in a harsh production environment, there must be a shift of emphasis in anti‐poverty measures from meeting income shortfalls among the poor to enabling the vulnerable to protect themselves better against these shocks.     

On testing the stability of input-output relationships in the Indian economy

Scepticism is often expressed about plan models for their reliance on input-output relationships based on not-very-recent data. An attempt is made in this paper to demonstrate, with Indian data, that temporal changes in input-output relationships in general are likely to be small. In a few crucial cases, however, the changes may be more than nominal and adjustments for intra-sectoral product mix and technological changes would be necessary for minimising the errors in intermediate demand projections. While the applicability of these findings to economies with a slow rate of growth seems plausible, the same cannot be said for other developing economies experiencing a much faster rate of growth.     

On the Targeting of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in the Indian State of Maharashtra

Contrary to a widely held view, the targeting of the Employment Guarantee Scheme in the Indian state of Maharashtra was unsatisfactory and worsened over the period 1979–89. Among the participants, from a large group the non-poor became the majority. Some of them were in fact (moderately) affluent. The share of female participants – especially of poor female participants – also diminished. As a result, the overall share of poor in EGS earnings fell sharply. Although a greater targeting accuracy does not necessarily imply a greater poverty impact for a given outlay, some improvements in the design and implementation of this scheme are likely to enhance both. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Information processing for a finite resource allocation mechanism

Summary deal with an organization havingm individual agents (the agents) and one central agent or agency (the coordinator), and the problem of allocating a fixed supply ofn commodities among the agents. The coordinator wishes to distribute the commodities in such a way as to maximize an objective function whose arguments are functions known (implicitly) to the individual agents, but not to the coordinator. The more information the coordinator obtains about the individual agents' functions, the better the allocation decision he or she can make; however, gaining such information is costly, so that the coordinator must balance the potential gain against the cost of acquiring additional information. We find a satisficing solution to this problem which is computable and which terminates in a finite number of steps.We would like to thank Leo Hurwicz, Ken Matheny, Shailendra Mehta, Bill Novshek, Roy Radner, Stan Reiter, Vernon Smith, Mark Walker, and, especially, John Ledyard and Tom Marschak, for helpful comments and suggestions. We must, of course, however reluctantly, accept responsibility for any remaining defects.