ECONOMIC RECESSIONS,BANKING REFORM AND THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM1

In the 2010 London School of Economics and Political Science Hayek Memorial Lecture, the author argues that flaws in the design of the monetary and financial system were responsible for the global financial crisis and the subsequent recession. The crash reflected the unsustainable nature of the bubble induced by artificial credit expansion created by fractional‐reserve banking under the direction of central banks. Such boom–bust cycles will continue until radical reforms are implemented, including a 100% reserve requirement for demand deposits.     

A tale of two civilizations in the era of Facebook and blockchain

Five billion people in the world do not have the kind of ledgers that provide the documented information that allows them to transfer, partition, and aggregate assets and talents in such a way that they can be scaled up, secure investment, guarantee credit, certify reputation, and capture abstract surplus value. The difficulty that most people have in making combinations is a major cause of global inequality and unnecessary poverty.     

Dollarization, economic growth, and employment

Dollarization brought price stability and higher economic growth to Ecuador. Nevertheless, unemployment remained stubbornly high. Two opposing forces explain this result: sustained growth led to higher labor demand but price stabilization triggered substitution effects by cheaper intermediate goods and capital.     

THE ESSENCE OF THE AUSTRIAN SCHOOL

In a lecture in November 2008, Professor Huerta de Soto set out the key contributions of the Austrian School to economic thought.     

The impact of the new protectionist stance in US trade policy on selected German companies in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Previous studies on the impact of the new protectionist stance of the United States have focused mainly on the imposition of the controversial border tax. This research advances the understanding of the possible impacts of the tightening of the rules of origin and the imposition of the most-favored nation tariffs on manufacturing companies. The findings show a negative impact from the protectionist measures on businesses by increasing costs per unit and decreasing the gross margin. The results suggest that those additional costs could be passed on to the final buyers, raising the price level by more than previously assumed.     

Growth and human capital: good data,good results

We present a new data set for years of schooling across countries for the 1960–2000 period. The series are constructed from the OECD database on educational attainment and from surveys published by UNESCO. Two features that improve the quality of our data with respect to other series, particularly for series in first-differences, are the use of surveys based on uniform classification systems of education over time, and an intensified use of information by age groups. As a result of the improvement in quality, these new series can be used as a direct substitute for Barro and Lee’s (2001; Oxford Economic Papers, 3, 541–563) data in empirical research. In standard cross-country growth regressions we find that our series yield significant coefficients for schooling. In panel data estimates our series are also significant even when the regressions account for the accumulation of physical capital. Moreover, the estimated macro return is consistent with those reported in labour studies. These results differ from the typical findings of the earlier literature and are a consequence of the reduction in measurement error in the series.      

The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile

Selective capital controls tax only some components of capital flows. One of the rationales for such controls is that they increase the scope for an independent monetary policy, without taxing foreign direct investment and other long term flows. The first part of this paper offers a new framework to evaluate how selective capital controls might increase monetary autonomy, which considers two types of capital flows that coexist: the taxed and exempt flows. It is found that under free floating selective controls increase monetary autonomy, in the sense of allowing the authorities to set the path of the nominal exchange rate. But under predetermined exchange rate rules, the contribution of selective controls to monetary autonomy depends of the ability to reduce total inflows, which is an empirical matter. The second part describes the Chilean unremunerated reserve requirement (URR), a selective control introduced in June 1991 on a permanent basis, in a setting of predetermined exchange rates. This control collected substantial revenue, proving that it was relevant. An econometric model with data for 1987–1996 finds that substitution from the exempt short-term flows compensated reductions in taxed short-term flows, so the Chilean URR did not discourage total net short-term credit inflows to the private sector. This implies that the Chilean URR failed to contribute to monetary autonomy.