Transitions to and From Self-employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis

This paper investigates the influence of individual characteristics and the business cycle on the probability of entry into self-employment and on self-employment duration. We estimate multinomial logit and discrete competing risks models using data from a longitudinal sample of Spanish men for the period 1985–1991. The results indicate that unemployment raises the probability of entering self-employment, but also increases the hazard of leaving self-employment, especially into unemployment. Moreover, receiving unemployment benefits significantly reduces the probability of entering self-employment. Liquidity constraints are important in determining enterpreneurial selection, but only for those who become self-employed with employees.     

Education, segregation and marital sorting: theory and an application to the UK

This paper presents a model of the intergenerational transmission of education and marital sorting. Parents matter both because of their household income and because their human capital determines the distribution of a child's disutility from making an effort to become skilled. We show that an increase in segregation has potentially ambiguous effects on the proportion of individuals that become skilled in the steady state, and hence on marital sorting, the personal and household income distribution, and welfare. We calibrate the steady state of our model to UK statistics. We find that an increase in the correlation of spouses in their years of education will bring about a small increase in the proportion of skilled individuals when the relative supply of skilled individuals is variable at the family level and a decrease when this supply is fixed. Ex-ante utility (of an unborn individual) increases in the first case and decreases in the second. The welfare effect of increased sorting is negative for unskilled individuals and positive for skilled individuals. Increased segregation always leads to an increase in welfare inequality between skilled and unskilled individuals.     

Debt Concentration and Bargaining Power: Large Banks,Small Banks,and Secondary Market Prices

Commerical bank debts of developing countries are held by large international banks and smaller domestic banks. This paper investigates how debt concentration—the proportion of a country's debt held by large banks relative to small banks—affects the secondary market price for these loans. We find that countries with higher concentrations have higher secondary-market prices. We explain this empirical finding in a bargaining model that endogenizes the maximum penalty that banks can credibly impose on a recalcitrant debtor. We show that the banks' bargaining power increases with the degree of debt concentration, thus increasing repayment and secondary-market prices.     

Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements

The past decade has witnessed a renewed interest in regionaltrade agreements, with many policymakers and academics seemingto believe that these provide more than the traditional gainsfrom trade. This article examines several possible benefitsthat regional trade agreements may confer on their partners,including credibility, signaling, bargaining power, insurance,and coordination. It assesses the necessary conditions for eachpossible channel to work, gives stylized examples of specifictypes of policy where the benefit might be applicable, examinescases where the explanation might be relevant, and discussestheir overall plausibility. It concludes by examining the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement and the Europe Agreements.     

Endogenous cartel formation: Experimental evidence

In a Bertrand-oligopoly experiment, firms choose whether or not to engage in cartel-like communication and, if so, they may get fined by a cartel authority. We find that the four-firm industries form cartels more often than the duopolies because they gain less from a hysteresis effect after cartel disruption.     

Investors’ perspective on portfolio insurance

Portuguese Economic Journal - This study supports the use of behavioural finance to explain the popularity of portfolio insurance. Portfolio insurance strategies are important financial solutions...     

Stochastic Models of Implied Volatility Surfaces

We propose a market–based approach to the modelling of implied volatility, in which the implied volatility surface is directly used as the state variable to describe the joint evolution of market prices of options and their underlying asset. We model the evolution of an implied volatility surface by representing it as a randomly fluctuating surface driven by a finite number of orthogonal random factors. Our approach is based on a Karhunen–Loeve decomposition of the daily variations of implied volatilities obtained from market data on SP500 and DAX options.
We illustrate how this approach extends and improves the accuracy of the well–known 'sticky moneyness' rule used by option traders for updating implied volatilities. Our approach gives a justification for the use of 'Vegas' for measuring volatility risk and provides a decomposition of volatility risk as a sum of independent contributions from empirically identifiable factors.
(J.E.L.: G130, C14, C31).