Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case

In this article, we focus on the ability of two financial variables—the yield curve spread and the euro–US dollar exchange rate—to predict French recessions over the period 1979–2010. First, we propose a turning point chronology for the French business cycle based on a classical conception of economic cycles and a non-parametric dating algorithm applied to the real GDP series. Second, static and dynamic probit models are developed and estimated to produce the recession probabilities. In-sample results show that the dynamic specification performs better than the static one and, above all, that the exchange rate has a stronger predictive power than the yield curve. Out-of-sample results finally confirm the predominant role assigned to the exchange rate in predicting the latest recession occurred in 2008.     

Corporate Social Responsibility and Worker Rights: Institutionalizing Social Dialogue Through International Framework Agreements

International framework agreements (IFAs) represent a new generation of transnational agreements between multinational companies and global trade union federations. This paper analyzes the impact of such an agreement on a successful union organizing campaign in Colombia in 2012. We argue that management strategies towards corporate social responsibility and social dialogue influence the impact of IFAs on worker rights. However, this relationship is mediated by the capacity of managers and worker representatives at multiple levels to mobilize their capabilities. The results highlight the importance of institutionalized dialogue between managers and worker representatives, of the dissemination of capabilities across multilevel coordination structures and, most importantly, of their complementarities at various levels.