An application of nonparametric volatility estimators to option pricing

We discuss the impact of volatility estimates from high frequency data on derivative pricing. The principal purpose is to estimate the diffusion coefficient of an Itô process using a nonparametric Nadaraya–Watson kernel approach based on selective estimators of spot volatility proposed in the econometric literature, which are based on high frequency data. The accuracy of different spot volatility estimates is measured in terms of how accurately they can reproduce market option prices. To this aim, we fit a diffusion model to S&P 500 data, and successively, we use the calibrated model to price European call options written on the S&P 500 index. The estimation results are compared to well-known parametric alternatives available in the literature. Empirical results not only show that using intra-day data rather than daily provides better volatility estimates and hence smaller pricing errors, but also highlight that the choice of the spot volatility estimator has effective impact on pricing.     

HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATION AND PERFORMANCE INEQUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM PROFESSIONAL CYCLING

This article proposes an equilibrium theory of the organization of work in an economy with an implicit market for productive time. In this market, agents buy or sell productive time. This implicit market gives rise to the formation of teams, organized in hierarchies with one leader (buyer) at the top and helpers (sellers) below. Relative to autarky, hierarchical organization leads to higher within and between team payoffs/productivity inequality. This prediction is tested empirically in the context of professional road cycling. We show that 46% of performance inequality in the Tour de France is due to hierarchical organization within team whereas team composition only accounts for 6%.     

TAXATION IN MATCHING MARKETS

We analyze the effects of taxation in two-sided matching markets where agents have heterogeneous preferences over potential partners. Our model provides a continuous link between models of matching with and without transfers. Taxes generate inefficiency on the allocative margin, by changing who matches with whom. This allocative inefficiency can be nonmonotonic, but is weakly increasing in the tax rate under linear taxation if each worker has negative nonpecuniary utility of working. We adapt existing econometric methods for markets without taxes to our setting, and estimate preferences in the college-coach football market. We show through simulations that standard methods inaccurately measure deadweight loss.     

Will the skill-premium in the Netherlands rise in the next decades?

While the skill-premium has been rising sharply in the US and the UK for 20 years, the Dutch skill-premium decreased for much of that period and only started to rise in the early 90s. In this article, we investigate whether the Dutch skill-premium will rise in the next decades. To answer this question, we forecast the skill-premium using the Katz and Murphy (1992 Katz, L and Murphy, K. 1992. Changes in relative wages, 1963–1987: supply and demand factors. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 35–78. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the Krusell et al. (2000 Krusell, P, Ohanian, L, Ríos-Rull, J-V and Violante, G. 2000. Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis. Econometrica, 68: 1029–53. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) models. The Katz and Murphy model (KM) explains demand shifts by skill-biased technological change in unobservable variables captured by a time trend. In contrast, the Krusell et al. model (KORV) explains demand shifts by (observable) changes in the capital stock under a capital-skill complementarity technology. The results show that while the KM model predicts that the skill-premium will have increased by 30% in 2020, based on realistic predictions of the stock of capital, the KORV model predicts that the skill-premium will remain between ?5 and +5% of its 1996 level.     

Job Creation by Company Size Class: The Magnitude,Concentration and Persistence of Job Gains and Losses in Canada

The statistical observation that small firms have created the majority of new jobs during the 1980s has had a tremendous influence on public policy. Governments have looked to the small firm sector for employment growth, and have promoted policies to augment this expansion. However, recent research in the U.S. suggests that net job creation in the manufacturing small firm sector may have been overestimated, relative to that in large firms.The first part of this paper addresses various measurement issues raised in the recent research, reassess the issue of job creation by firm size, and pushes this work beyond the manufacturing sector by employing longitudinal data covering all companies in the Canadian economy. We conclude that over the 1978–92 period, as a group small firms did account for a disproportionate share of both gross job gains and losses, and net employment increases, no matter which method of sizing firms is used. Measurement does matter, however, as the magnitude of the difference in the growth rates between small and large firms is very sensitive to the measurement approaches used. Part one of the paper also produces results for various industrial sectors, and examines employment growth in existing small and large firms (i.e., excluding births). It is found that employment growth in the population of existing small and large firms is very similar. Attempts are made to introduce a job quality aspect to the analysis by using payroll rather than employment data. Payroll data allow any relative change in hours worked or wages paid in small (relative to large) companies to be incorporated in the findings. This did not significantly alter the conclusions reached using employment data only.The second part of the paper looks at concentration and persistence of employment creation and destruction within size classes. If growth is highly concentrated, knowing that a firm is small will provide little information about its prospects for growth. Most small firms would grow relatively little, or decline, while a few expanded a lot. It is found that both job creation and destruction is highly concentrated among relatively few firms in all size groups. There are fast growing firms in all size classes, and although most job creation is found in the small firm sector, the fastest growing large firms out-perform the majority of small firms in any given period. Finally, the employment creation performance of businesses are compared over two three-year periods. It is found that knowing that a firm is a high performer (in terms of jobs created) over one period is of only limited value in determining growth in the second period. This is particularly true among small firms. These results suggest that firms which expand rapidly during one period are replaced to some considerable degree by others in the subsequent period.     

Industrial groups and territories: the case of Matra-Marconi-Space in Toulouse

This article examines the relations between industrial groupsand territory (defined as the overlapping of geographical andorganisational positioning). It tries to isolate the key factorswhich determine the way in which industrial groups use territoryin business activities - inparticular, the factors linked tothe transformation of group productive organisation, and thesocio-economic space in which they are located. Thus, the traditionalallocation of resources approach is replaced by one that concentrateson the creation of resources. For some industrial groups, businesslocations provide not only specific human resources, but alsovarious kinds of technological knowledge and skilled servicecapacity, as well as top-level training facilities. The crucialimportance of territory is shown in a case-study of the Matra-Marconi-Spacecompany based in Toulouse.     

On Input Market Frictions and Estimation of Factors' Demand

In this article, we explore the impact of imperfectly competitive input markets on production function estimation. First‐order profit‐maximizing conditions are altered when frictions in input markets cause the elasticity of input supply to the firm to be finite. A consequence of this is that the standard econometric model used for production function estimation will be misspecified. We prove that, in all nontrivial cases, finite elasticities of supply to the firm will lead to inconsistent estimates of production function parameters. Monte Carlo simulations show that the resulting bias can be economically significant.     

The physiocrats' concept of labour: A difficulty in Marx's interpretation

Abstract

This article explains the difference between the concept of labour developed by the Physiocrats and Marx. We show that Marx's interpretation based on Turgot is questionable. Whereas Marx bases his ideas on a Lockian definition of labour which puts labour at the origin of value, Quesnay and his disciples develop a mechanistic definition of labour established on Neo-Cartesian foundations. This particular concept of labour then combines with a bio-physical definition of production. The theory of the net product is therefore re-interpreted.     

OPTIMAL SELLING RULES FOR MONETARY INVARIANT CRITERIA: TRACKING THE MAXIMUM OF A PORTFOLIO WITH NEGATIVE DRIFT

Considering a positive portfolio diffusion X with negative drift, we investigate optimal stopping problems of the form where f is a nonincreasing function, τ is the next random time where the portfolio X crosses zero and θ is any stopping time smaller than τ. Hereby, our motivation is the obtention of an optimal selling strategy minimizing the relative distance between the liquidation value of the portfolio and its highest possible value before it reaches zero. This paper unifies optimal selling rules observed for the quadratic absolute distance criteria in this stationary framework with bang–bang type ones observed for monetary invariant criteria but in finite horizon. More precisely, we provide a verification result for the general stopping problem of interest and derive the exact solution for two classical criteria f of the literature. For the power utility criterion with , instantaneous selling is always optimal, which is consistent with previous observations for the Black‐Scholes model in finite observation. On the contrary, for a relative quadratic error criterion, , selling is optimal as soon as the process X crosses a specified function φ of its running maximum . These results reinforce the idea that optimal stopping problems of similar type lead easily to selling rules of very different nature. Nevertheless, our numerical experiments suggest that the practical optimal selling rule for the relative quadratic error criterion is in fact very close to immediate selling.