Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

Openness and the speed of adjustment in the money market

In an effort to fight inflation or recession, central banks manipulate the money supply. The speed with which a change in money supply could affect price level and the level of production differs from one country to another, depending on rigidities. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the adjustment speed among the mentioned macro variables is higher in countries that are more open. Using the bounds-testing approach, a relatively new approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we estimate the speed of adjustment in the money market in 28 developing countries. A simple cross-sectional model is utilized in which the measure of adjustment speed is related to three different measures of openness. Regardless of the measure used, a significant and positive relationship exists between adjustment speed and the measure of openness.     

Non-profit organizations,entrepreneurship, social capital and economic growth

Traditional economic growth literature focuses mainly on the neoclassical approach. According to this view, firms try to maximize their benefits so that there is no place for non-profit organizations (NPOs). However, the activity of NPOs has a higher relevance in society, and it is necessary to analyze its effects on economic growth. These effects are not direct, but occur through other variables that directly promote economic growth, such as entrepreneurship activity and human capital, and through the improvement of education. We engage in an empirical analysis of these issues using data from 11 countries.     

Social Marketing of a Fortified Staple Food at Scale: Generating Demand for Fortified Rice in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the social marketing strategy implemented by PATH and GAIN to create a sustainable market for rice fortification in Brazil and develop a replicable model relevant to other geographies. It draws on market research on consumer attitudes and practices, as well as key demand and consumer metrics before and after execution of the social marketing campaign in Brazil. This marketing endeavor succeeded in establishing the viability of introducing fortified rice in a country through a purely market-based approach. Whereas social marketing is vital to the introduction and scale-up of fortified staple foods through commercial markets, it is not sufficient to achieve meaningful scale and sustainability. Engagement from the public and social sectors, clear governance, and other factors are critical to substantial and long-term impact. Lessons from this first attempt to introduce a fortified staple food through a market-based approach are relevant to similar initiatives elsewhere.     

Broadband penetration,financial development,and economic growth nexus: evidence from the Arab League countries

This paper examines the mutual relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth in the 22 Arab League countries for the period between 2001 and 2013. Financial development (represented by broad money supply, claims on the private sector, domestic credit to the private sector, domestic credit provided by the banking sector, market capitalization, turnover ratio, and traded stocks) is assessed both individually, and by a composite index. Our results reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth. Additionally, we use a panel vector autoregression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality between the covariates. The most important insight of this study is the presence of bidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration in the long run. In addition, we find that financial development together with broadband penetration Granger-cause economic growth in the long run.     

Ex-post evaluation of scenarios: the case of nanotechnology societal impacts

Scenario development is one of the popular methods of futures studies. There has been a lot of attention paid to different methods of scenario writing in theoretical literature; but what is important is to evaluate the scenarios which has not been a matter of comprehensive study heretofore. In this paper, we have carried out a comprehensive study in this regard. Accordingly, evaluation has been divided into three categories: ex-ante evaluation, mid-term evaluation and ex-post evaluation. Ex-ante evaluation is carried out when the scenario is generating; mid-term evaluation is carried out when the scenarios are transferring; and ex-post evaluation is being done after the transfer of scenarios. It should be noted that main purpose for ex-ante evaluation is considered “effectiveness”, for mid-term evaluation “relevance”, and for ex-post evaluation “the impact”. The outstanding part of this paper is the ex-post evaluation of scenarios for societal impact of nanotechnology, (which is carried out in accordance with a former paper) whose corresponding National Iranian Nanotechnology Initiative (NINI) time began approximately 10 years ago.     

Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries

Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of “global”, rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves.This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods.The empirical results reveal a significant effect of global output on aggregate demand in most countries. Through this channel, global economic conditions can indirectly affect inflation. The results, instead, do not seem to provide evidence in favor of altering domestic Phillips curves to include global slack as an additional driving variable for inflation.     

Devaluation and The Balance of Trade: A Synthesis of Monetary and Elasticity Approaches

The elasticities and monetary approaches to balance of trade and balance of payments give different predictions about the effects of changes in exchange rates on the trade balance and balance of payments. This paper, using a theoretical model, supports the arguments that elasticities and monetary approaches to balance of payments are complementary theories since each is merely a fragment of a larger system. It was shown that the short run effects of devaluation are those produced by the elasticities approach and the long run effects are those implies by the monetary approach. [431]     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in China

In order to account for currency substitution, the majority of recent studies relating to the specification of the demand for money include the exchange rate as another determinant of the demand for money. However, those who have estimated the demand for money in China have been unable to find any significant effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money by the Chinese. We show that this is due to the assumption that exchange rate changes have symmetric effects. Once depreciations are separated from appreciations of the yuan, those exchange rate changes are shown to have significant effects on the demand for money in China, but in an asymmetric manner.     

Causal nexus between economic growth,banking sector development,stock market development,and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries

This paper examines the relationship between banking sector development, stock market development, economic growth, and four other macroeconomic variables in ASEAN countries for the period 1961–2012. Using principal component analysis for the construction of the development indices and a panel vector auto-regressive model for testing the Granger causalities, this study finds the presence of both unidirectional and bidirectional causality links between these variables. The study contributes to understanding the importance of the interrelationship between the variables and combines the different strands of the literature. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries that have not been studied before. One particular policy recommendation is to make the banking sector more accessible for those country's inhabitants that do not have bank accounts. Another policy recommendation is to nurture stock market development, which will facilitate the increased raising of capital for investment purposes to enhance economic growth.