Believing in employment discrimination: The case of Forrest Mims,Scientific American,and title VII protection

This article reviews the law regarding Title VII employment discrimination protection from religious discrimination. The issues surrounding the principal legal protection in this regard are explored in the context of a recent controversial case in which an author, Forrest Mims, was not hired as a regular contributor forScientific American magazine, ostensibly because of his belief in the theory of creation over the theory of evolution. The definition of what constitutes a protected religious belief or practice is seen to have expanded over time. However, a belief in creationism is not necessarily seen as being tantamount to a religious belief under present legal interpretation of Title VII. The implications of this finding for future needed Title VII revision are discussed.     

Long-term forecasting methods: Emphasis and institutions

There are many explanations why the more structured and formalised techniques of forecasting have not yet provided major input to government policy except in specialised areas. This article gives an assessment of the present state of the art in our ability to predict the consequences of current actions in the long-term future. The relevance of this to the ongoing debate about the place of formal methods in policy analysis is considered. In many instances it seems that the methods used run counter to the ideal of scientific liberalism to which the forecasters and officials involved often subscribe. The article indicates where institutional arrangements can be adjusted to ensure that the forecasting ability available is better employed, and points to areas in which forecasting methodologists should increase their attention if forecasting methods are to support more open and more flexible institutional arrangements.     

Designing the annual reports of burton plc from 1930 to 1994

This paper undertakes a historical review of the use of design and designers in the annual reports of Burton PLC, against a backdrop of the firm's commercial history. It highlights a subordinate role for design from 1930 until the 1970s, when it was used increasingly to embellish the annual report. Design assumed a very significant role from 1984, when the firm's annual report was transformed into a corporate communications tool. The paper suggests that Burton was among the first British companies to reach this stage, and that it was some ten years behind the generality of U.S. corporations in this regard. Using Burton as an example, the study concludes by proposing that the turning of the annual report into a public relations document has latent disadvantages and by advocating that design briefs in this area should be differently focused.     

Modelling with scenarios: Technology in North-South development

This article outlines work in progress on a study of technological choice in the context of North-South development. Its main purpose is to describe the methodology being developed in the pilot phase of the study. This is of interest because it links together a number of analytic techniques—sociopolitical scenario analysis, macroeconomic modelling, and certain microstudies. The methodological problems are general to much forecasting activity.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

Ecological footprint of Gansu Province, China between 1997 and 2002： changes and inducement

The calculation of Ecological Footprint （EF） on the basis of Input-Output model （I-O model） was advanced by Bicknell, and modified and improved hy Ferng who corrected the footprint＇s aggregation to each sectors. For the lack of sufficient teehnique to deal with the trade between the research areas and the rest of the world, it it necessary to improve this method. And a dynamic analysis of the change of footprint based on I-O model, which could explore the factor impacting the footprint using the ,special advantage of I-O model, ought to be put into practice. After introducing the new method in detail, we calculate and compare the EF and the change of Gansu Province in the northwest of China in 1997 and 2002. The result shows that there was an increase of EF in 2002 caused by final domestic demand. Further; the inerement in EF export was 2.0 × 10^5 ha and 1.6 × 10^6 ha in import. The out-of- region support dropped from 22.6% to 18. 6%. We introduce three factors causing the EF change based on the character of I-O model： the productivity of the resourve which is explained by the change of resource used to obtain one unit output in a sector, the improvement of the economics and the final demand. Finally, we find that the effects of the three factors on the EF change are not identical except the industry sectors and the change of factors in the agriculture and the industry sectors works notably.