Fiscal stance,the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework

This paper examines the time-varying time series processes of the interaction between government fiscal deficits, the current account balance and the real exchange rate for the U.K. and U.S. economies. This is achieved in a novel way by estimating a time-varying vector autoregression model that allows for time variation in the stochastic variance and autoregressive parameters. This paper finds that, contrary to results reported in the recent literature, government deficit shocks worsen the U.S. current account balance. In contrast, results based on the historical time series for the U.K. show evidence of fiscal deficits having actually improved the current account balance. However, in commonality, the time-varying estimates show that the impact of fiscal deficits on the U.K. and U.S. current account balance has fallen in magnitude over the past 20 years. The time-varying variance decomposition results illustrate that fiscal deficit shocks played a key role in driving U.K. current account and real exchange rate fluctuations throughout the 1980s. In contrast, fiscal deficit shocks have been a small factor in the variation of U.S. current account and exchange rate fluctuations over the past 25 years. The time-varying results in this paper do not support the view that future fiscal deficit reductions alone can eliminate U.K. and U.S. current account imbalances.     

Open trade and skilled and unskilled labor productivity in developing countries: A panel data analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of trade openness on the productivity of skilled and unskilled labor in a group of 36 developing countries using panel data and fixed effect approach. We have developed and utilized an empirical model that readily lends itself to testing the hypothesis posed. Our results support the hypothesis that trade openness has a positive and significant impact on labor productivity for both skilled and unskilled labor in the sample countries. We also observe that the beneficial effect of trade openness is relatively stronger for the skilled labor than the unskilled labor. We conclude that contrary to the claim made by Mayda and Rodrik (2001 Mayda, A. M. and Rodrik, D. 2001. “Why are some people (and countries) more protectionist than others? A cross country analysis”. Mimeo: Harvard University.  [Google Scholar]), skilled workers in developing countries may oppose protectionism. When adjusting for the purchasing power parity, the impact of trade openness on labor productivity, although positive and significant, is not as pronounced as it is for other definitions of openness.     

A multilevel government model of deficits and inflation

In this paper, an attempt is made to properly identify the link between deficits and the rate of inflation by using two alternate macroeconomic models—one based on adaptive expectations and the other on rational expectations—for a multilevel government system. It is assumed that unlike federal deficits, state deficits cannot be monetized. Nonetheless, the interaction between state and federal inflation is explicitly incorporated into the model. When expectations are formed adaptively, the model confirms the positive link between deficits and rate of inflation. However, with rational expectations, the model shows that inflation is, in part, explained by the forecast error. It is proposed that only empirical testing of the theoretical models would give credence to such conclusions.     

Provincial government expenditures in Canada: an empirical analysis

Most empirical studies have sought to explain the overall growth of the total government expenditures. Few studies have focused on the growth of spending at the provincial level. This article seeks to fill the gap. It examines the growth of government expenditures in Canadian provinces. Data spanning the past three decades are used to explain the growth of provincial government expenditures in Canada and to test alternative hypotheses. From a basic general theoretical model, three empirical models are developed and tested. It is concluded that the growth of the private sector share of the Provincial Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), capacity utilization and factors such as federal transfer payments to the provincial governments best explain the growth in expenditure at the provincial level. The expenditure policies of provincial governments are found to be independent of the political stance of the political parties in power. Estimated short-run and long-run ‘income’ elasticities of provincial government expenditures with respect to PGDP reveal that government expenditures have grown in proportion to PGDP. The growth of provincial spending over the last three decades has been stimulated by the demand for services (such as education and health) and by federal transfer payment programmes through their combined income and substitution effects.     

Trade Openness,Structural Change and Total Factor Productivity

The impact of trade openness on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) is investigated. Given the differences in tradability of goods across sectors as well as the ongoing structural change, we examine whether trade openness has had a differential impact on TFP growth of the three main sectors of an economy. While the positive impact of openness on TFP growth for the aggregate economy is confirmed, openness has had no appreciable impact on the growth of TFP in the agricultural and industrial sectors. We find that the positive effect of openness on TFP growth for the economy as a whole was mostly due to the positive relationship between the two variables for the services sector. Further, we conclude that the lack of a general consensus in past studies could be due to their neglect of structural change and temporal factors when analyzing the trade-TFP nexus.     

An analysis of government expenditure and trade liberalization

The effect of trade liberalization on government's role in the economy is investigated. It is shown that, contrary to received expectations, as small open economies liberalize their trade, the size of government decreases.     

Industrialization and Government Expenditures: The Case of South Korea

South Korea has been transformed from a nation of war torn poverty to an industrial giant in one generation. Many attribute this to the role of government and believe that the size of government spending increases with industrialization. This paper, using time series data for the 1970–1990 period, empirically tested the impact of industrialization on government spending in Korea. Our results suggest that the two major determinants of public spending are private sector's income (output) and the overall state of employment. Further, our results show that the income elasticity of demand for public goods is greater than unity, both in the short-run and long-run. [H1]     

Inverse data envelopment analysis without convexity: double frontiers

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this research, inverse data envelopment analysis (IDEA) approaches are proposed to measure inputs changes for output perturbations made while the convexity...