The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes,Mechanics and Outcomes

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (i) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001–09 to levels inconsistent with long‐term EMU participation; and (ii) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non‐credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms, the sustainability of the EMU is in question.     

Measuring technical efficiency in the Greek agricultural sector

This paper measures the degree of technical efficiency of Greek farms at discrete points in time. Stochastic frontier production functions are estimated from four annual Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) surveys of the 1992–1995 period. From the results, a measure of technical efficiency is calculated for each farm for each year. The four distributions of technical efficiency values are examined and compared. All four samples show a wide range of farm-specific technical efficiency but efficiency is improving over the period. The paper also presents frontier estimates for small and large farms classified according to economic size. In that case, technical efficiency measures are calculated and their distributions are examined and compared. The results show that large farms are more efficient than small farms. However, efficiency is improving in both size farms over the period. In general, the results of this study indicate that there is substantial scope for improving technical efficiency of Greek farms.     

A Stochastic Model for Pensionable Service

Abstract

In this paper, a stochastic model is developed for the prediction of the employee's cumulative pensionable service over his working life, as a function of his unemployment periods and his completed lengths of service, under a service requirement constraint. Distributional and first passagetime problems are considered for the total pensionable service and a generalized renewal equation is formally solved. Further useful results are obtained and numerical applications are given.     

Cost convergence in the US airline industry: An analysis of unit costs 1995–2006

Recent changes in the strategies of US airlines have led to a convergence of unit costs between the network legacy carriers and low-cost carriers. We develop a methodology for breaking down operating cost data reported by the airlines and argue that certain cost categories must be excluded to make a valid comparison between the carrier groups. We find significant evidence of convergence in unit costs excluding fuel and transport-related expenses, and labor unit costs in particular. While network legacy carriers have improved cost efficiency through dramatic labor cost reductions and longer stage length flying, low-cost carriers labor unit costs continue to increase as these former new entrant airlines mature.     

Learning,capital-embodied technology and aggregate fluctuations

Recent cyclical episodes in the U.S. and G-7 economies are asymmetric: recoveries and expansions tend to be long and gradual and busts tend to be short and sharp. A large body of work views the two recent cyclical U.S. episodes, namely, the “new economy” boom in the late 1990s, and the 2000s housing boom-bust as episodes where over-optimistic beliefs have played a significant role. These episodes have revived interest in expectations driven business cycles models. However, previous work in this area has not addressed the important asymmetry feature of business cycles. This paper takes a step towards addressing this limitation of expectations driven business cycle models. We propose a generalization of the Greenwood et al. (1988) model with vintage capital and learning about capital embodied productivity and show it can deliver fluctuations that are asymmetric as in the U.S. data. Learning, calibrated to match the procyclical forecast precision from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, is crucial for the model?s ability to generate asymmetries. Forecast errors generated by the model are shown to trigger recessions that mimic in magnitude, duration and depth the typical post WW II U.S. recession.     

Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates

The present paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting performance of four conditional volatility models applied to the European Monetary System (EMS) exchange rates. In order to provide improved volatility forecasts, the four models’ forecasts are combined through simple averaging, an ordinary least squares model, and an artificial neural network. The results support the EGARCH specification especially after the foreign exchange crisis of August 1993. The superiority of the EGARCH model is consistent with the nature of the EMS as a managed float regime. The ANN model performed better during the August 1993 crisis especially in terms of root mean absolute prediction error.