Constructing Multi‐Country Rational Expectations Models

This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach to construct a multi‐country rational expectations (RE) model and illustrates them with a new Keynesian model for 33 countries estimated with quarterly data over the period 1980–2011. The issues considered are: the measurement of steady states; the determination of exchange rates and the specification of the short‐run country‐specific models; the identification and estimation of the model subject to the theoretical constraints required for a determinate rational expectations solution; the solution of a large RE model; the structure and estimation of the covariance matrix and the simulation of shocks. The model used as an illustration shows that global demand and supply shocks are the most important drivers of output, inflation and interest rates in the long run. By contrast, monetary or exchange rate shocks have only a short‐run impact in the evolution of the world economy. The article also shows the importance of international connections, directly as well as indirectly through spillover effects. Overall, ignoring global inter‐connections as country‐specific models do, could give rise to misleading conclusions.     

New Institutional Economics' contribution to strategic groups analysis

Rather than consider the two broad strands of strategic group research—performance‐based and behavior‐based studies—as competing approaches, we argue that they relate to complementary levels of analysis. We present a four‐level framework for analyzing structures within industries drawn from New Institutional Economics (NIE) which covers different approaches to strategic group formation from institutional isomorphism and embeddedness through to the firm‐level effects of certain resource deployments. We apply an institutional approach to a case study of the Australian banking industry and supplement this with a quantitative approach based around key strategic variables. This analysis suggests that distinct groups have emerged due to the institutional environment and the different regulatory environments experienced by various banks in the industry. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Income and distance elasticities of values of travel time savings: New Swiss results

This paper presents the findings of a study looking into the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS) in Switzerland, across modes as well as across purpose groups. The study makes several departures from the usual practice in VTTS studies, with the main one being a direct representation of the income and distance elasticity of the VTTS measures. Here, important gains in model performance and significantly different results are obtained through this approach. Additionally, the analysis shows that the estimation of robust coefficients for congested car travel time is hampered by the low share of congested time in the overall travel time, and the use of an additional rate-of-congestion coefficient, in addition to a generic car travel time coefficient, is preferable. Finally, the analysis demonstrates that the population mean of the indicators calculated is quite different from the sample means and presents methods to calculate those, along with the associated variances. These variances are of great interest as they allow the generation of confidence intervals, which can be extremely useful in cost-benefit analyses.     

Asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay estimates in discrete choice models

Individuals when faced with choices amongst a number of alternatives often adopt a variety of processing rules, ranging from simple linear to complex non-linear treatment of each attribute defining the offer of each alternative. In this paper we investigate the presence of asymmetry in preferences to test for reference effects and differential willingness to pay according to whether we are valuing gains or losses. The findings offer clear evidence of an asymmetrical response to increases and decreases in attributes when compared to the corresponding values for a reference alternative, where the degree of asymmetry varies across attributes and population segments.     

Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values

We construct asset markets that are similar to those studied by Smith, Suchanek and Williams (Econometrica. 56, 1119–1151) in which bubbles and crashes tended to occur. The main difference between the markets studied here and those studied by Smith et al. is that in the markets studied here, the fundamental value of the asset is constant over the entire life of the asset. In four of the eight sessions reported here, we observe bubbles, which are prices considerably higher than fundamental values. The data suggest that the frequent payment of dividends is a major cause of bubble formation. The property that the fundamental value remains constant over the course of the trading horizon is not sufficient to eliminate the possibility of a bubble.     

The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

This article aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. Based on a Global VAR modeling approach, this article shows first that countries with a large trade exposure with the U.S. economy have a relatively larger sensitivity to U.S. developments. However, even for countries that do not trade so much with the U.S., they are largely influenced by its dominance through other partners’ trade. Moreover, while no clear trend seems to emerge, it seems that the role of the U.S. in the global economy has changed over time. Overall, for most countries—the latest recession excluded—a change in U.S. GDP had weaker impacts—though more persistent—for most recent periods. The latest recession, however, led to some renewed increase in the sensitivity of the economies to U.S. developments.     

Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through

This article aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: (1) across destination markets; (2) across types of exporters [distinguishing developed economy (DE) from emerging economy (EE) exporters] and (3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991–2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degree of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from EEs is also significantly lower than for those from DEs. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and the well-identified decline in the exchange rate pass-through between the 1980s and 1990s appears to have stopped during the period considered.