Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN FRANCE (1977): A FIRST ATTEMPT AT THE ESTATE DUTY METHOD

This paper reports upon the first official application of the estate multiplier method of estimating the wealth distribution to French data. It is based upon a sample of estate duty returns filed during the period September-December 1977. The sampling rate was 5 percent for estates under one million francs, and 100 percent for estates over this level, giving a total of 5031 records. The data available did not permit a breakdown by type of asset. It did, however, permit classification of estates by age, sex, and occupation of decedent. Experiments were conducted using five different sets of mortality multipliers. The set of mortality multipliers judged most appropriate leads to an estimate of aggregate net wealth that is 77 percent of that given in the national balance sheet of the national accounts. Comparison of the distributions of wealth derived in these estimates suggest that the figures are consistent with those found in other countries.     

OECD imports: diversification of suppliers and quality search

We posit that OECD buyers are in a continuous search for best quality suppliers from developing countries. We build a simple model of adverse selection and quality screening which captures this feature. The model predicts that diversification happens by “bouts”, or temporary episodes, during which OECD buyers search for high-quality suppliers. Each diversification episode is followed by a phase of re-concentration on the best performers, until those fail (which happens stochastically), triggering new search phases. The model also shows that concentration across origin is highly volatile, especially for goods with high-quality heterogeneity. Finally, as the set of suppliers expands and buyers continue sampling, the overall trend is an increased diversification across time. We empirical explore these conjectures using OECD imports over time (1963–2006) and measuring their concentration across 250 origin countries at the product level (1,300 products). We provide strong empirical evidence corroborating the model predictions.     

Does importing more inputs raise exports? Firm-level evidence from France

Does an increase in imported inputs raise exports? We provide empirical evidence on the direct and indirect channels via which importing more varieties of intermediate inputs increases export scope: (1) imported inputs may enhance productivity and thereby help the firm to overcome export fixed costs (the indirect productivity channel); (2) low-priced imported inputs may boost expected export revenue (the direct-cost channel); and (3) importing intermediate inputs may reduce export fixed costs by providing the quality/technology required in demanding export markets (the quality/technology channel). We use firm-level data on imports at the product (HS6) level provided by French Customs for the 1996–2005 period, and distinguish the origin of imported inputs (developing vs. developed countries) in order to disentangle the different productivity channels above. Regarding the indirect effect, imported inputs raise productivity, and thereby exports, both through greater complementarity of inputs and technology/quality transfer. Controlling for productivity, imports of intermediate inputs from developed and developing countries also have a direct impact on the number of exported varieties. Both quality/technology and price channels are at play. These findings are robust to specifications that explicitly deal with potential reverse causality between imported inputs and export scope.