四大风险威胁2009年亚洲经济增长

[摩根士丹利11月6日]由于近几周金融市场形势恶化，2009年亚洲经济增长预期值的下调风险明显增大。而由于亚洲贸易与金融已实现高度一体化，一种负反馈循环已经在本地区迅速形成。目前，本地区经济增长面临着四种至关重要的风险：（1）外需冲击；（2）资本流入的急剧减速和资本成本的上升；（3）汇率冲击；（4）金融动荡的加剧。     

亚洲投资滑坡深度有限，但复苏前景暗淡

【摩根士丹利5月7日】危机前的资本支出增长极为强劲 近年来，日本之外亚洲（AXJ）地区的固定资本总投资（GFCF）出现了大幅增长，据我们估算，2001—2008年间，AXJ经济体的GFCF由9200亿美元（占GDP的28．5％）猛增至2．9万亿美元。本轮周期之中，GFCF从谷底到峰顶的升幅远超过上世纪90年代中期那轮周期的升幅。     

Investigating Customer Resistance to Change in Transaction Relationship with an Internet Vendor

Many academics and practitioners have reiterated the importance of online customer retention to ensure long‐term profitability. Consequently, a number of studies have identified various means of customer retention. These studies lay significant emphasis on creating customer loyalty. However, retaining customers, especially in the context of Internet shopping, is very difficult because of the low costs in comparison and switching. Most of the loyalty programs have also shown disappointing results. This study suggests that by tapping on an individual customer's inclination to resist changes in a transaction relationship, an Internet vendor can achieve customer retention. Using status quo bias theory, this study examines customer resistance to change (CRC) as a means of retaining customers in a transaction relationship with the Internet vendor. The empirical study of an Internet bookstore reveals that trust, relative attractiveness, and switching costs together influence CRC. The empirical results also show that CRC and switching costs have positive effects on willingness to pay more. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Cost-effectiveness of second-line atezolizumab in Canada for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness in Canada of atezolizumab compared with docetaxel or nivolumab for the treatment of advanced NSCLC after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy.

Materials and methods: A three-state partitioned-survival model was developed. Clinical inputs were obtained from the phase III OAK trial comparing atezolizumab with docetaxel in patients with advanced NSCLC who progressed after first-line platinum-doublet chemotherapy. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were extrapolated beyond the trial period using parametric models. A cure model assuming a 1% cure fraction was fitted to the OS data for atezolizumab. Outcomes for nivolumab were informed by a network meta-analysis (NMA) vs atezolizumab. Resource use and costs were informed by clinical expert opinion and published Canadian sources. Utility values were obtained from the OAK trial. The perspective of the analysis was that of the Canadian publicly-funded healthcare system. The base case time horizon was 10?years, and the discount rate was 1.5% annually for both costs and effects. Scenario analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results and all analyses were performed probabilistically.

Results: Atezolizumab demonstrated a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.60 compared with docetaxel at an incremental cost of $85,073, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $142,074/QALY. Atezolizumab dominated nivolumab (regardless of dosing regimen), based on modest differences in both QALYs and costs. Docetaxel was most likely to be cost effective at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds below $125,000/QALY gained, while atezolizumab was most likely to be cost effective beyond this WTP threshold. In most scenario analyses, the results remained robust to changes in parameters. A reduced time horizon and alternative approaches to the NMA had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness results.

Conclusion: Atezolizumab represents a cost-effective therapeutic option in Canada for the treatment of patients with advanced NSCLC who progress after first-line platinum doublet chemotherapy.     

Healthcare utilization and costs among relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma patients on carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone

Aim: To compare monthly healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs among adult patients with multiple myeloma (MM) receiving second or subsequent line of treatment (LOT) with carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone.

Methods and materials: Adult MM patients who received carfilzomib or pomalidomide as second/subsequent LOT between 2006 and 2014 were selected from the MarketScan databases. LOT was determined using Medical/pharmacy claims using a published algorithm. For each patient, first LOT with carfilzomib or pomalidomide was defined as index LOT. Patients with first LOT as index LOT, who received other chemotherapy in combination with carfilzomib or pomalidomide, or who underwent stem cell transplant (STC) during index LOT were excluded. Monthly HRU and costs during index LOT were compared using inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) based on propensity scores for receipt of carfilzomib estimated by logistic regression with LOT, patient demographics, Charlson index, comorbidities, pre-index healthcare cost, and receipt of prior SCT as covariates.

Results: After weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced among 114 carfilzomib and 144 pomalidomide patients. Mean (95% CI) numbers of outpatient visits per month were 7.1 (5.2–8.0) with carfilzomib and 4.7 (3.9–6.1) with pomalidomide (p?=?0.006). Otherwise, there were no statistically significant differences between the groups in mean monthly HRU and costs or median time to therapy discontinuation. Mean (95% CI) monthly total healthcare costs were $19,776 (15,322–27,748) with pomalidomide and $17,321 (12,412–21,874) with carfilzomib (p?=?0.522).

Limitations: Comparison of carfilzomib vs pomalidomide may be biased if there are unobserved factors not balanced by IPTW. The relatively small sample size limits the power of analyses to detect potential differences between treatment groups.

Conclusions: Monthly HRU and costs are similar among patients with relapse or refractory MM patients receiving carfilzomib or pomalidomide as monotherapy or in combination with dexamethasone.     

Who Loses when Prices are Negotiated? An Analysis of the New Car Market

We establish that there are large and persistent differences in final transaction prices for identical new cars, and that demographic characteristics explain at least 20% of the observed variation. Older consumers perform progressively worse in negotiations, and the age premium is greater for women than for men. Our results suggest that the complex nature of vehicle transactions leads to price dispersion in this market, and that the worst performing groups—older women—have the lowest rates of market participation. We conjecture that the results are driven by the sharp increases in women's education and labor force participation in recent decades.     

Value‐driven Internet shopping: The mental accounting theory perspective

When faced with competition and the ease with which customers can compare prices across sellers, Internet vendors often lower prices in a bid to increase sales. However, recent research reports that even price‐sensitive customers do not always purchase from Internet vendors offering the lowest prices. In contrast, value has been considered a key motivator of customer decision making in economics and marketing. However, little is known about the role and effect of value in Internet shopping. This study examines online customer purchase decision making from the value perspective based on mental accounting theory. This study also identifies monetary (perceived price) and non‐monetary (perceived risk, convenience, and pleasure) determinants of value. This study further explains how the individual determinants affect online purchase decision making directly and indirectly though value perception. The findings of this study offer Internet vendors practical suggestions for increasing online sales. This study, with its results, also helps advance knowledge of electronic commerce. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A combined approach using AHP and DEMATEL for evaluating success factors in implementation of green supply chain management in Indian manufacturing industries

The present work aims to evaluate the success factors (SFs) associated with the implementation of green supply chain management (GSCM) from the Indian manufacturing industry perspective. Initially, 24 SFs relevant to GSCM adoption and implementation were identified from the literature and inputs received from relevant experts. Subsequently, a structural model was proposed by means of combining the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) approach to evaluate these SFs at the tactical, operational and strategic levels in GSCM adoption. The AHP method helps in determining the relative importance/priorities of the SFs to GSCM adoption. In addition, the DEMATEL method captures the interactive relationships among the SFs, and analyses them on the basis of causal effect mapping. The model proposed can help industrial managers/practitioners to formulate short-term as well as long-term flexible decision strategies in efficiently managing a green supply chain.     

The Optimal Length of an Agricultural Carbon Contract

In this paper, we present the economic determinants of the optimal length of a carbon offset contract. We find that because of a declining capacity of the soil to sequester carbon, the optimal length of the carbon contract is finite (the marginal benefit of remaining in the contract is declining over time, whereas marginal opportunity cost is rising). We also explore the effect of varying key parameter values on the optimal length in the contract. If the contract requires the farmer to sequester at a higher rate, the farmer chooses the contract for a shorter length of time, and this may decrease rather than increase social welfare. If society places a higher value on carbon accumulation, the contract is chosen for a longer length of time. Finally, if both the farmer and society have a higher discount rate, the model provides a somewhat surprising result. The overall time in the contract, and benefits from carbon accumulation are higher when the common discount rate is higher.