The Effect of the Hedge Horizon on Optimal Hedge Size and Effectiveness When Prices are Cointegrated

This study compares two alternative regression specifications for sizing hedge positions and measuring hedge effectiveness: a simple regression on price changes and an error correction model (ECM). We show that, when the prices of the hedged item and the hedging instrument are cointegrated, both specifications yield similar results which depend on the hedge horizon (i.e., the time frame for measuring price changes). In particular, the estimated hedge ratio and regression R² will both be small when price changes are measured over short intervals, but as the hedge horizon is lengthened both measures will converge toward one. These results imply that, when prices are cointegrated, a longer hedge horizon will yield an optimal hedge ratio closer to one, while at the same time enhancing the ability to qualify for hedge accounting. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:837–876, 2012     

Attitudes toward outdoor recreation development: An application of social exchange theory

A research project was undertaken within a multi‐county region in southeastern Ohio to ascertain the attitudes of local residents toward future outdoor recreation development within the area. A systematic random sample of 1493 respondents was drawn from a five‐county region to test a theoretical perspective developed from selected components of social exchange theory. The findings demonstrated that the respondents held very favorable attitudes toward outdoor recreation development. Multivariate analysis of the data revealed that the theoretical model was basically supported. The findings are discussed from both applied and theoretical perspectives.     

Patent Breadth, Patent Life, and the Pace of Technological Progress

In active investment climates where firms sequentially improve each other's products, a patent can terminate either because it expires or because a non-infringing innovation displaces its product in the market. We define the length of time until one of these happens as the effective patent life, and show how it depends on patent breadth. We distinguish lagging breadth, which protects against imitation, from leading breadth, which protects against new improved products. We compare two types of patent policy with leading breadth: (1) patents are finite but very broad, so that the effective life of a patent coincides with its statutory life, and (2) patents are long but narrow, so that the effective life of a patent ends when a better product replaces it. The former policy improves the diffusion of new products, but the latter has lower R&D costs.     

Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

A vector autoregression model is used to evaluate dynamic relationships among international wheat prices. The effects of freight rates and exchange rates are also considered. Forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions are used to investigate price dynamics in six important international wheat markets. The results suggest significant dynamic relationships among prices in different international wheat markets and between the prices and exchange rates and transportation costs.
On s'est servi d'un modéle vectoriel à autorégression pour évaluer les relations dynamiques entre les cours du blé sur le marché international. On a également tenu compte de l'inci-dence des coûts de transport et du taux de change. La décomposition prévue de la variance de l'erreur et les fonctions de réaction ponctuelle ont également permis d'approfondir la dynamique des prix sur six grands marchés internationaux du blé. Les résultats suggérent des relations dynamiques notables entre les prix sur différents marchés internationaux du blé, de meme qu'entre les prix et le taux du change et les coûts de transport.     

A MODEL OF BUREAUCRACY AND CORRUPTION*

We analyze bureaucracy and corruption in a market with decentralized exchange and “lemons.” Exchange is modeled as a sequence of bilateral, random matches. Agents have private information about the quality of goods they produce and can supplement trade with socially inefficient bribes. Bureaucracy is modeled as a group of agents who enjoy centralized production and consumption. Transaction patterns between the bureaucracy and the private sector are fully endogenous. Centralized production and consumption in the bureaucracy give rise to low power incentives for the individual bureaucrats. As a result, private agents might bribe bureaucrats, whereas they do not bribe each other. An equilibrium with corruption and an equilibrium without corruption can coexist. We discuss some welfare implications of the model.     

Small enterprises as complex adaptive systems: a methodological question?

Complexity science constitutes an emerging post-positivist interdisciplinary field of investigation of dynamical systems in the natural and physical worlds. The central concept of complexity is that interactions between parts of open systems create novel, unpredictable patterns, and that while the history of the system is relevant in understanding its dynamic, the isolation of individual parts of the system (analysis) does not reveal the casual mechanisms in the system. It is suggested that complexity science can inform our methodologies for investigating the social sciences. The paper explores whether complexity science offers ways of theory building that can take account of pluralistic or interdisciplinary research in enterprise dynamics. The authors offer a model of six theorized ontological layers, derived from the canon of research literature within a small enterprise domain, with boundaries at each end. It is suggested that dynamical concepts of agency (adaption, evolution, fitness, interdependence) coupled with the theory of evolutionary autopoietic structures generate a plausible field for the study of enterprise dynamics. A focus on ontological and experimental adequacy is necessary to develop theory within this framework. An appropriate methodology involves iterations between experimental forms of scientific analysis and the grounding of emergent or evolving theories.     

Modeling the act of measurement in the social sciences

Motivated by time-series experimental designs, we develop a model of the act of measurement in the social sciences. Meaningful measurements are represented by operators that obey a non-commutative algebra. Thus, the order in which information is extracted matters. In addition, responses to questions about an attribute depend on whether information about another attribute has previously been extracted. Measurement “forces” the subject to obtain one value of the attribute, the one measured by the observer. An uncertainty principle imposes a fundamental limit on the ability to extract detailed information about two distinct attributes within a short period of time.     

A two-state analysis of estate taxes and charitable bequests from the most generous decedents

This study uses Censored Quantile Regression (CQR) and probate records for the years 2000–2005 to analyze charitable bequests of the most generous decedents from two states, Virginia and Louisiana. We focus on the most generous decedents because they account for a large portion of total charitable bequests. The most generous decedents' charitable bequest tax price (i.e., one minus the marginal tax rate) elasticity is not significantly greater than one in both our full sample and the subsample of the decedents filing federal estate tax returns. Our finding suggests that allowing charitable bequests to be deductible is not a treasury efficient policy for the most generous decedents. We also find that the tax price and wealth effects for the most generous decedents are overestimated by the Tobit model that has been traditionally utilized by prior studies. Furthermore, filers' charitable bequests are predicted to decrease if the estate tax is repealed.     

Do New Product Development Managers in Large or High-Market-Share Firms Perceive Marketing-R&D Interface Principles Differently?

In the quest for successful innovation, the importance of the R&Dlmarketing interface is virtually unquestioned. For many organizations, however, effective integration of technical and marketing functions is difficult, if not impossible. Despite seemingly widespread understanding of fundamental new product principles, some companies still manage to gain a larger share of the market than their competitors. This raises the question of whether managers in more successful companies have special insights into R&D'/'marketing interface principles that give them an edge over their competitors. To gain a better understanding of managers' perceptions of new product principles defined in the academic literature, Ted Haggblom, Roger J. Calantone, and C. Anthony Di Benedetto conducted a survey of 687 nonacademic members of the Product Development and Management Association. The basis for the survey was a set of 78 product management principles compiled from a search of more than 500 books and articles from various disciplines. From this survey, 14 of the 78 principles were selected as relevant to the study reported in this article. The principles discussed in this article involve such issues as resistance to change, short-term orientation, communication and trust between marketing and technical people, the effect of centralized decision-making on innovation, the importance of open communication flows, senior management's role in the R&D I marketing interface, and the necessity of a product champion. The primary quesstion addressed in this study is whether managers from successful companies perceive these principles differently from managers of less successful firms. The study provides partial support for the proposition that managers' perceptions of these new product principles depend on their company's success. In other words, the survey results suggest that managers in companies with higher market shares tend to agree more strongly with these principles than their counterparts in less successful firms. The study also explores the relationship between firm size and agreement with these principles of new product success. Specifically, the study assesses whether the perceptions of managers from smaller, more entrepreneurial companies differ from those of managers in larger companies. Although managers from small and large firms may view these principles from different perspectives, there were no statistically significant differences in the perceptions of managers from small and large firms.