What motivates a subprime borrower to default?

This paper uses a real options approach to analyse the exercise of the default option embedded in mortgages. In particular, it examines a subprime household who borrows at a premium, but hopes to refinance at prime rates if their house appreciates. We show how these optimal default decisions can be used to calculate probabilities of default – an important input for risk management and pricing purposes. Numerical examples are provided, calibrated to US data. In a low interest rate environment, the credit-upgrade potential may discourage subprime borrowers from defaulting. However, default probabilities are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates and house prices. This provides a rational explanation for the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages among subprime borrowers, and the subsequent large numbers of defaults, when interest rates rose and house prices declined.     

Distribution-free tests for comparing several treatments with a control

Abstract  In this paper we propose distribution-free treatments versus control tests for the one- and two-way classifications. The null distribution properties are shown to be equivalent to those of well-known statistics for which critical values have been extensively tabled. Asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to corresponding normal theory competitors are derived and optimal designs for the allocation of experimental units to the treatments and control are obtained.     

A Pricing and Hedging Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches for American Index Options

This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance.     

The effect of banking market structure on the lending channel: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper analyses the extent to which the level of bank competition influences monetary policy transmission. Using a large panel dataset of 978 banks from 55 countries, and employing the Lerner index model as a measure of market structure, our results show that an increase in banking sector competition weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending. The findings are robust to a broad array of sensitivity checks including control of alternative measurements of the Lerner index, different samples and different methodological specifications. By extension, these results have important policy implications for regulators in assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms.     

Scoring an Own Goal? Ethical issues in the UK professional soccer business

It is only in recent years that soccer has become big business, and the ethical strains are beginning to show. What is the “product” and where do fans figure in the list of “stakeholders”? The writer is completing his MBA at London Business School, and is a lifelong football fan.     

The key to marketing to older consumers

Marketers must put aside stereotypes and unexamined assumptions to reach older consumers. In this article, the author details their values and describes a technique that can be used to effectively position a product or service in older consumers' minds.     

An analysis of the implications of discontinued operations for continuing income

We examine the extent to which changes in the accounting for discontinued operations affects the usefulness of disaggregated income components in predicting an entity’s future continuing income. Our study is motivated by the joint FASB/IASB convergence project which seeks to define the scope of transactions reported in discontinued operations. To examine our question, we compare the properties of continuing income and discontinued operations reported under SFAS 144 and APB 30, where APB 30 closely parallels IFRS 5. We find that the broader scope of the rule under SFAS 144 results in more persistent continuing income among firms reporting discontinued operations, and that this is concentrated among single-segment firms, which previously were less likely to fall within the scope of APB 30. Because we find no evidence of increased opportunism, we conclude that the broader scope of the rule results in a finer partitioning of recurring and nonrecurring income. Overall, our results support the broader scope of discontinued operations.     

The Valuation of Equity Futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange: 1920–1923

The futures price of an asset should depend on the spot price of that asset, the interest rate, cash flows during the contract term, the convenience yield, and storage costs. Despite many tests of the spot–future relation for commodities in historical periods, there have been no tests of this historical relation for equities. We price single‐stock equity futures on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between 1920 and 1923 and find that mispricing is considerably worse than in contemporary U.S. markets, after adjusting for (unavoidable) asynchronous data issues. The main cause of the mispricing is short‐sales constraints, rather than investor naivety. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark