Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000–2001

In this paper we analyze the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling expectations in the crisis episodes of Turkey in 1994 and 2001. The question is how much of the occurrence of a crisis can be attributed to market expectations and how much to fundamentals. The model is estimated using a Markov switching framework in which the devaluation expectations affect crisis probability via three different specifications. Such a framework which allows for sunspots performs better than a purely fundamental-based model. The study shows that besides the fundamentals in the economy, shifts in agents' devaluation expectations have played a crucial role and that a Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities provides better estimates for the Turkish currency crises.     

Who buys from farmers’ markets and farm shops: The case of Germany

In this article, we analyze the influence of sociodemographic factors and consumer attitudes toward direct marketing products and sources (outlets) on the frequency of buying food from farmers’ markets and farm shops. By conducting an intercept survey with pedestrians in 2011 and 2012, we interviewed a total of n = 550 consumers. The target regions of the study were the Eastern German federal states. The study uses two ordered logit regression models to investigate consumers’ shopping behaviour at farmers’ markets and farm shops separately. We find that different factors significantly influence consumers’ buying behaviour at the two direct marketing outlets. Specifically, both a more favorable view toward the freshness of directly marketed foods and the intention to support local producers are positively related to consumers’ purchase frequency from farmers’ markets. In contrast, consumers’ purchase frequency from farm shops is significantly influenced by their perception of the cost of the products, confidence in food producers of directly marketed products, perception of the safety of the food and perception of the accessibility of farm shops. The study results indicate that considering consumer behaviour separately for different direct marketing channels for food rather than considering the entire category of local food outlets may provide new and valuable insights.