Stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational mobility tables

The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio‐economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high socio‐economic status is never worse than having one with a lower status. Using existing inferential procedures for testing unconditional stochastic monotonicity, we first test a set of 149 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 different countries and find that monotonicity cannot be rejected in hardly any table. In addition, we propose new testing procedures for testing conditional stochastic monotonicity and investigate whether monotonicity still holds after conditioning on a number of covariates such as education, cognitive and non‐cognitive skills. Based on the NCDS cohort data from the UK, our results provide evidence that monotonicity holds, even conditionally. Moreover, we do not find large differences in our results when comparing social class and wage class mobility. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach

A common problem in applied regression analysis is that covariate values may be missing for some observations but imputed values may be available. This situation generates a trade-off between bias and precision: the complete cases are often disarmingly few, but replacing the missing observations with the imputed values to gain precision may lead to bias. In this paper, we formalize this trade-off by showing that one can augment the regression model with a set of auxiliary variables so as to obtain, under weak assumptions about the imputations, the same unbiased estimator of the parameters of interest as complete-case analysis. Given this augmented model, the bias-precision trade-off may then be tackled by either model reduction procedures or model averaging methods. We illustrate our approach by considering the problem of estimating the relation between income and the body mass index (BMI) using survey data affected by item non-response, where the missing values on the main covariates are filled in by imputations.     

Precautionary savings under income uncertainty: a cross-sectional analysis

The first part of this paper derives a closed fro solution for present consumption as a function of current and expected economic variables, which contains a precautionary component that is directly affected by future income risk. An estimating equation forthe structural relationship between savings and their determinants is discussed and tested using cross-sectional data from the 1984 UK Family Expenditure Survey.     

The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets

We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long‐Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substantial inefficiency.     

Why Do Small States Receive More Federal Money? U.S. Senate Representation and the Allocation of Federal Budget

Empirical research on the geographic distribution of U.S. federal spending shows that small states receive disproportionately more dollars per capita. This evidence, often regarded as the consequence of Senate malapportionment, in reality conflates the effects of state population size with that of state population growth. Analyzing outlays for the period 1978–2002, this study shows that properly controlling for population dynamics provides more reasonable estimates of small‐state advantage and solves a number of puzzling peculiarities of previous research. We also show that states with fast‐growing population loose federal spending to the advantage of slow‐growing ones independently of whether they are large or small. The two population effects vary substantially across spending programs. Small states enjoy some advantage in defense spending, whereas fast‐growing ones are penalized in the allocation of federal grants, particularly those administered by formulas limiting budgetary adjustments. Hence, a large part of the inverse relationship between spending and population appears to be driven by mechanisms of budgetary inertia, which are compatible with incrementalist theories of budget allocation.     

诚信是一种责任

拜耳公司在几年前也有一次很大的危机，主要影响在美国。那时公司突然损失了10亿美元的项目，无论在经济方面还是声誉方面都有影响。拜耳公司也考虑了如何解决、如何减缓这个问题，并从中吸取经验和教训。从从业者的角度来看，公众在危机中的作用是重要的。     

Re-Evaluating the Offshoring Decision: A Behavioural Approach to the Role of Performance Discrepancy

Firms are in a continuous process of critically re-evaluating their offshoring strategies due to performance discrepancies. While prior research has focused on the implementation of organizational responses to performance shortfalls, we examine the offline search process, a key antecedent of organizational change, during which firms simultaneously explore alternative solutions when facing either a positive or a negative discrepancy between performance and aspirations. We adopt the Behavioural Theory of the Firm (BTOF) to investigate how the search process is affected by the size and nature (as being positive or negative) of the discrepancy as well as how it is moderated by cognitive biases. By examining 441 offshoring initiatives, we study firms' search processes in a novel context that refers either to ‘local’ solutions that are close to the current activity (i.e., expansion in the same host country) or ‘distant’ solutions that are far from the current one (i.e., relocation to a third country or to the home country). Our results provide new insights into organizational search, namely that performance shortfalls lead to distant search unless this choice is moderated by a location-specific anchor bias relating to the strategic importance of host location, while positive discrepancies trigger local search with decision-makers more inclined to consider expansion in the current host country.