Testing weak form efficiency on the Toronto Stock Exchange

In order to test for weak form efficiency in the market a vast pool of individual stocks must be analyzed rather than a stock market index. In this paper, a model-based bootstrap is used to generate a series of simulated trials and a modified chart pattern recognition algorithm is applied to all stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The number of patterns detected in the original price series is compared with the number of patterns found in the simulated series. By simulating the price path specific time dependencies present in real data are eliminated, making price changes purely random. Patterns, if consistently identified, carry information which adds value to the investment process, however, this informativeness does not guarantee profitability. Conclusions are drawn on the relative efficiency of some sectors of the economy. Although the null hypothesis of weak form efficiency on the TSX cannot be rejected, some sectors of the Canadian economy appear to be less efficient than others. In addition, pattern frequencies appear to be negatively dependent on the two moments of return distributions, variance and kurtosis.     

Small firms and technological development in the food processing machinery industry: The case of pasta and other cereal derivative machines in Italy

This study about Italian producers of machines and plants for pasta, basic cereals, snacks and bread factories attempts to shed some light on the role played by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Italian industry. Even if the high diffusion of SMEs has positively affected the performance of Italian economy during the seventies and the eighties, the new trends of technological change and global competition are expected to be unfavourable to this category of enterprises in the nineties. The analyses of a significant sample of firms makes clear that the industry is in the middle of a positive restructuring process. The structure of this sector shows a division of labour based on deverticalization of production, and a process of internationalization focused on exports and not on direct investments or joint ventures abroad. Leading firms are following growth strategies by new investments and acquisitions. Finally, as far as technological change is concerned, there is a significant increase of process innovations, thanks to the use of electronic components.An earlier release of this paper was presented at 7th EARIE (European Association for Research in Industrial Economics) Annual Conference in Lisbon, September 2–4 1990. We thank all the participants for their comments and suggestions, in particular P. Dunne.     

The dynamic of innovation networks: a switching model on technological change

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms compare and modify their innovation strategies, so generating an evolving network structure. By implementing dynamic behavioral switching via a fitness mechanism based on agents’ performance, companies can endogenously modify their tactics for technological change and switch among three groups: stand-alone innovators, collaborative innovators and imitators. On the one hand, we study the properties of the emerging networks and we show that they reproduce the stylized facts of innovation networks. Moreover, we focus the analysis on the impact of these three innovation categories on the macro economic aggregate, finding that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system. On the other hand, we use the model to study the effect of different economic innovation policies in increasing macroeconomic performance.     

Procurement under public scrutiny: auctions versus negotiations

We compare two commonly used mechanisms in public procurement: auctions and negotiations. The execution of the procurement mechanism is delegated to an agent of the buyer. The agent has private information about the buyer's preferences and may collude with one of the sellers. We provide a general characterization of both mechanisms based on public scrutiny requirements and show—contrary to conventional wisdom—that an intransparent negotiation always yields higher social surplus than a transparent auction. Moreover, there exists a lower bound on the number of sellers such that the negotiation also generates a higher buyer surplus.     

The internationalization process in the small and medium sized firms: A case study on the Italian clothing industry

In this research we use a data-base that reveals the propensity for contractual ventures and direct investments (1051 operations) of the clothing Italian companies during the period 1987–1991, on a national (342 operations) and international level (709 operations). The latter were analyzed with reference to the internal (412) and external growth strategies (297), cooperative (362) and non-cooperative (347) deals. Our analysis focuses on the different strategies that SMEs, on one hand, and large companies, on the other hand, show in the internationalization process. Main results of the study are:

the international growth of the SMEs takes place mainly through contractual agreements (68%), more so than with non-cooperative operation (32%), whereas in large companies the non-cooperative strategies slightly prevail (54%). Consequently, the external growth strategy is very important for the SMEs (72%) and somewhat less important for the large companies (54%);

the cooperative growth is usually seen by SMEs as an expansion both of the commercial (48% of the operations involves commercial purposes) and of the production areas (48% of the cases). This could indicate that SMEs try to organize on an international level the same network model used in Italy: SMEs decentralize their production within the country through networks of companies and industrial districts, whose horizontal connections (among SMEs themselves) and vertical connections (with large companies) provide flexibility and low costs;

large companies' expectations of the Single European Market have brought a great number of international operations in Europe (24%), notwithstanding the notable importance of Japan (23%) and U.S. (17%); on the contrary, SMEs focus on “niche and rich markets” as Japan (40%); but as far as the contractual agreements are concerned, both types of firm privilege the Japanese market: almost 50% of SMEs' international agreements are directed towards Japan (33% in the large company's case);

large companies and SMEs in the middle and high segments of the market carry out more operations than companies operating in the low quality and casual segments;

generally speaking, in Italy there is an urgent need for industrial policies promoting SMEs access to cooperative instruments (“learning by cooperating”).

     

Information acquisition during a descending auction

We compare the effects of information acquisition during a descending auction with its static counterpart, the first-price sealed-bid auction. In a framework with heterogeneous prior information, we show that an equilibrium with information acquisition exists in both auction formats. We show that everything else equal information acquisition is more desirable in the dynamic auction. Moreover, we characterize a set of parameter values where more information is acquired in the dynamic auction in equilibrium. If the costs of information acquisition are sufficiently low, the sealed-bid auction generates more revenue although the descending auction is more efficient.