We examine the relationship between government partisanship, interest rates and the mean and volatility of stock prices in the United States and United Kingdom. We suggest that traders in the stock market rationally expect higher (lower) post-electoral interest rates during the incumbency of the left-wing (right-wing) party – Democrats and Labor (Republican and Conservative) – and in election years when they expect the left-wing (right-wing) party to win elections. We hypothesize that expectations of higher (lower) interest rates decrease (increase) the mean and volatility of stock prices during the actual incumbency or even anticipation of a left-wing (right-wing) party holding the office of the chief executive. Results from empirical models estimated on data from U.S. and U.K. markets over most of the twentieth century statistically support our claims. 相似文献
We show the implications of strengthening patent protection in a developing country in the presence of a vertical technology transfer, which, despite its empirical relevance, did not get due attention in the literature. We show that if there is imperfect knowledge spillover under a weak patent protection, a strong patent protection in the developing country increases the profit of the developed‐country firm if there is a uniform tax rate in the developing country. However, if there is either perfect knowledge spillover under weak patent protection or discriminatory tax policy in the developing country, the profits of the developed‐country firms are the same under weak and strong patent protections in the developing countries. 相似文献
This paper provides a theory of joint venture buy‐outs in the presence of demand uncertainty. In an infinite horizon framework with demand uncertainty, we consider a foreign firm's decision on whether to form a joint venture or to open a fully owned subsidiary. Without the possibility of future share adjustment, the foreign firm enters the market through a joint venture if the host‐country firm helps to reduce the uncertainty significantly. Consequently, the firm enters at an earlier point in time compared to the situation in which opening a fully owned subsidiary is the only option to the firm. The possibility of future share adjustment in the joint venture further increases the incentive to speed up foreign investment. Although the possibility of share adjustment results in a joint venture buy‐out and can reduce the future profits of the host‐country firm, it may increase host‐country welfare by attracting foreign investment at an earlier point in time. We show the implications of learning in the joint venture. 相似文献
We study capital allocations to managers with two mutual funds, and show that investors learn about managers from their performance records. Flows into a fund are predicted by the manager's performance in his other fund, especially when he outperforms and when signals from the other fund are more useful. In equilibrium, capital should be allocated such that there is no cross‐fund predictability. However, we find positive predictability, particularly among underperforming funds. Our results are consistent with incomplete learning: while investors move capital in the right direction, they do not withdraw enough capital when the manager underperforms in his other fund. 相似文献
Rent seeking within the vast informal segment of the developing world is a relatively under‐explored topic in the interface of labor market policies and public economics. Moreover, how rent seeking and corruption within the informal segment gets affected by economic reforms targeted for the formal sector is rarely discussed in the literature. This paper fills the gap. We identify conditions under which economic reform in the formal segment will increase the rate of corruption or rent seeking in the informal sector and raise the pay‐off for those involved in rent‐seeking activities. When the formal sector contracts due to reforms, rent seeking in the informal sector may increase and lower the level of welfare unconditionally. Economic reforms may increase corruption instead of reducing it, unlike standard conjectures. 相似文献
In a post-divorce equilibrium under joint legal custody of a child the paper compares the effect of two different transfer schemes, a general purpose transfer scheme and a specific purpose transfer scheme, from non-custodial parent to the custodial parent of the child on his/her welfare. Surprisingly, it finds that the marginal effects are neutral. The result contributes to the policy framework by suggesting that the lawyers/courts can choose the two alternatives equivalently in settling the child custody cases in a post-divorce situation. The paper also characterizes such transfer schemes and proves that the schemes can never restore the child’s welfare at the ‘happy marriage’ equilibrium level.
In the face of global climate change, strengthening community resilience becomes increasingly important, especially in conflict affected countries with fragile governance. Nepal is such a country, recovering from a decade of civil war while facing several climate and environmental risks, including floods, droughts and landslides. We aim to contribute to the understanding of resilience building by drawing on case studies from Banke, Dang and Rolpa districts in Nepal. To compare the resilience of the districts we conduct field research. None of the analysed approaches to strengthen the resilience are without unintended consequences. The provision of rice in Rolpa increases food security but also creates local preferences for rice that cannot be met sustainably. In Dang and Banke aid resources themselves have become a source of conflict. We conclude that a more holistic understanding of local realities is needed to minimise unintended effects and strengthen resilience under challenging governance and (post)conflict conditions. 相似文献