Deposit Insurance and Risk Management of the U.S. Banking System: What is the Loss Distribution Faced by the FDIC?

We examine the question of deposit insurance through the lens of risk management by constructing the loss distribution faced by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). We take a novel approach by arguing that the risk management problem faced by the FDIC is similar to that of a bank managing a loan portfolio, only in the FDIC’s case the risk arises from the potential for loss of the individual banks in its portfolio. We explicitly estimate the cumulative loss distribution of FDIC insured banks using two variations of the Merton model and find that reserves are sufficient to cover roughly 99.85% of the loss distribution, corresponding to about a BBB+ rating. However, under different stress scenarios (higher correlations, fat-tailed bank returns, increased loss severity) that level can be much lower: approximately 96% corresponding to about a B+ rating.JEL classification: G210, G280.Any views expressed represent those of the author only and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.     

R&D spillovers and the case for industrial policy in an open economy

In this paper we consider the case for subsidies towards firmswhich generate R&D spillovers in open economies. We showthat in the presence of strategic behaviour by firms many expectedresults are overturned. Local R&D spillovers to other domesticfirms may justify an R&D tax rather than a subsidy; R&Dcooperation by local firms over-internalises the externalityand also justifies an R&D tax; and international spilloverswhich benefit foreign firms may justify a subsidy, even thoughthe government cares only about the profits of home firms.     

WATER BANKING AND RESTORATION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES HABITAT: AN APPLICATION TO THE SNAKE RIVER

Most river basins have experienced development of water projects to promote flood control, recreation, and hydropower and agricultural production. Though the projects helped establish stable economies, there have been adverse impacts to the natural environment and wildlife that reside in these river basins. One of the key policy tools for habitat restoration is management of instream flows. Alternative water banking policies for restoring habitat are compared using a spatial optimization model to identify which policies work best to augment instream flows for habitat restoration. Results indicate that policy goals dictate what type of water bank is preferred.     

Consider the non-adopter: Developing a prediction model for the adoption of household-level broadband access

We explore the decision process for the household-level adoption of broadband Internet access. Our aim, of determining the barriers to household-level broadband adoption and how to best overcome those barriers, guides our analysis in an effort to better inform broadband policy development and implementation. We introduce and rely on data collected from 3101 New Jersey households under the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's nationwide Broadband Technology Opportunity Program. Following MATH, the Model of Technology Adoption in Households, extended with a moderating control variable, we model the conditions under which a household is more or less likely to adopt household-level broadband Internet access. We specify an original two-step model that first estimates from demographic determinants a linear latent variable of the responding household's propensity to not adopt high-speed broadband Internet access, and then regresses that propensity variable on behavioral and attitudinal measures about broadband and computer use and familiarity. Analyzing those outcomes generates three empirical findings that help inform the efficient implementation of policies to establish universal broadband access: (1) demographically, household-level broadband adoption in New Jersey is colorblind: race and ethnicity, in and of themselves, do not predict household-level broadband adoption; (2) behaviorally, the strongest facilitator for household-level broadband adoption is computer use by the household decision-maker; and (3) structurally, the strongest barrier to such adoption is lack of resources. Decomposing and better understanding the phenomenon of non-adoption will help to inform planning efforts to maximize household-level broadband adoption.     

A new estimate of transaction costs

Transaction costs are important for a host of empirical analysesfrom market efficiency to international market research. Buttransaction costs estimates are not always available, or whereavailable, are cumbersome to use and expensive to purchase.We present a model that requires only the time series of dailysecurity returns to endogenously estimate the effective transactioncosts for any firm, exchange, or time period. The feature ofthe data that allows for the estimation of transaction costsis the incidence of zero returns. Incorporating zero returnsin the return-generating process, the model provides continuousestimates of average round-trip transaction costs from 1963to 1990 that are 1.2% and 10.3% for large and small decile firms,respectively. These estimates are highly correlated (85%), withthe most commonly used transaction cost estimators.     

Should Stochastic Volatility Matter to the Cost-Constrained Investor?

Significant strides have been made in the development of continuous-time portfolio optimization models since Merton (1969) . Two independent advances have been the incorporation of transaction costs and time-varying volatility into the investor's optimization problem. Transaction costs generally inhibit investors from trading too often. Time-varying volatility, on the other hand, encourages trading activity, as it can result in an evolving optimal allocation of resources. We examine the two-asset portfolio optimization problem when both elements are present. We show that a transaction cost framework can be extended to include a stochastic volatility process. We then specify a transaction cost model with stochastic volatility and show that when the risk premium is linear in variance, the optimal strategy for the investor is independent of the level of volatility in the risky asset. We call this the Variance Invariance Principle.     

The regionalization of indian politics and its implications for economic reform

Is political decentralization an impetus for economic liberalism, or are state and local governments impediments to a rigorous reform process? This article describes India's federal system, the growth of regional parties and governments, the changing balance of power between India's state and central governments, and the deterioration of state administrations, then assesses the economic reform and human resource policies of the states. The factors which slow the pace of reforms (politically unstable governments, fiscal populism, organized local interests, patronage and rents for party and government officials) and those that push for reforms (fiscal deficits, the need for investments in infrastructures, and inter-state competition for private investment) are analyzed.