Evolutionary Game Theory and the Modeling of Economic Behavior

Since the 1950s economists have applied game-theoretical concepts to a wide variety of economic problems. The Nash equilibrium concept has proven to be a powerful instrument in analyzing the outcome of economic processes. Since the late 1980s economists have also shown a growing interest in the application of evolutionary game theory. This paper discusses the main concepts of evolutionary game theory and their applicability to economic issues. Whereas traditional game theory focusses on the static Nash equilibria as the possible outcomes of the game, evolutionary game theory teaches us to explicitly model the behavior of individuals outside equilibrium. This may provide us with a better understanding of the dynamic forces within a society of interacting individuals.     

Combining time-series and econometric forecast of tourism activity

It has always been difficult to model the travel industry because tourism involves such a diverse set of activities. However, various regional decision makers have become increasingly interested in predicting the flows of visitors through their market. Accurate forecasts of the number of tourists' arrivals, their length of stay, and their expenditures improve planning and inventory control. Stochastic time-series models have compared favorably with econometric models at the aggregate level while some naive automatic forecasting tools have fared well in comparison when predicting industry-level behavior. Several approaches have been developed to improve forecast accuracy. This paper presents parsimonious methods of improving accuracy by combining various forecasting techniques. The Box-Jenkins stochastic time-series method is combined with a traditional econometric technique to forecast airline visitors to the State of Florida.     

Supply and demand factors of Cleaner technologies: Some empirical evidence

This article identifies and analyzes factors that affect the willingness of firms and consumers to develop and adopt cleaner technologies. Cleaner technologies is used as a general term for pollution abatement technologies, re-use systems, and environmentally sound consumer products and materials. The article also contains the findings of three case studies on cleaner technologies (CFC substitutes, low-solvent paints and coatings, and membrane technology), in which the importance of the identified factors is investigated. From the case studies some general conclusions are drawn about these factors, and the way in which policy instruments can be used to stimulate innovation in and diffusion of cleaner technologies. No single policy instrument is considered to be optimal. Instead a policy mix is needed, involving a much wider use of economic instruments.This paper is based on a research project for the Ministries of Economic Affairs and the Environment in the Netherlands, and is a revision of an earlier paper Policy Instruments to Stimulate Cleaner Technologies, which was prepared for the EAERE conference in Stockholm, June 11–14th, 1991. The authors thank the referee for helpful comments.     

Beyond the gravity model

Gravity theory holds that more people will travel from a particular origin to a given destination than will travel to a more distant destination of the same type and size. Distance, according to gravity theory is a deterrent to travel and empirical evidence supports such a relationship in urban settings. This relationship is, however, hypothesized not to be true for long-distance leisure travel where distance may be a utility rather than a friction to be overcome. This study examines the relationship between subjective (perceived) distance and objective (geographic) distance and tests the hypothesis that, all other things being equal, the attractiveness of tourist destinations will increase as subjective distance increases. It is concluded that tourists tend to perceive all destinations to be closer than they actually are. It is also concluded that the far-off destination has a special allure about it simply because it is far-off.     

One job,one deal…or not: do generations respond differently to psychological contract fulfillment?

This paper investigates generational differences in the relations between psychological contract fulfillment and work attitudes. Data were collected from a sample of 909 employees in the Dutch service sector. Structural equation modeling analyses were used to test the moderating effects of generational differences on the influence of psychological contract fulfillment on affective commitment and turnover intention. The relationship between psychological contract fulfillment and these work outcomes was moderated by generational differences. Furthermore, results indicate that different generations respond differently to different aspects of psychological contract fulfillment, such as career development, job content, organizational policies, social atmosphere and rewards. The study provides evidence that generational differences impact the reciprocal relationship between employer and employee. Results from this study suggest that Baby Boomers and Generation X may be more motivated by social atmosphere, whereas Generation Y may be more motivated by job content and career development. Fair organizational policies are particularly motivating to Generation X, and providing rewards, though more important to Generation Y, seem mostly unrelated to work outcomes. This article is the first to study the moderation of generational differences in the relationships between psychological contract fulfillment and work outcomes.     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.     

Shopping-centre selection modelling: a segmentation approach

This study seeks to develop an in-store brand-extension commitment (ISBEC) scale. To accomplish this goal, consumers were questioned about the efforts they are willing to undertake when confronted with critical moments in the store concerning their favourite brand extension. Using exploratory factor analysis, seven dimensions of ISBEC efforts were discovered. A higher order factor analysis revealed two factors: switching brand extensions within the same brand and the commitment behaviours in favour of brand extensions. In addition, based upon these seven ISBEC effort dimensions, six clusters of consumers were discovered. In an era of ECR, where the manufacturer and the retailer seek to develop economically responsible category systems, insights into what consumers will do for their preferred brand extensions might provide them with some strategic insights.     

Cost Benefit Analysis of European Air Quality Targets for Sulphur Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine and Suspended Particulate Matter in Cities

The European Commission has proposed air quality standards for NO₂, SO₂ and PM₁₀ to be in force by 2010. The present paper presents a study that gauged their costs and benefits. An analysis of the expected emissions for 2010 (reference emission scenario), using simplified air quality models, showed that non-compliance with these standards will occur in cities only, not in rural areas. Most compliance problems are expected for PM₁₀, least for SO₂. Central estimates of the costs to meet standards range from 21 MECU (SO₂), to 79 MECU (NO₂) to 87--225 MECU (PM₁₀). The estimated benefits are 83--3783 MECU (SO₂), 408--5900 MECU (NO₂), and 5007--51247 MECU (PM₁₀). Uncertainties are high, due to errors and incertitude in various steps of the methodology, mainly the estimation of the human health effects, in particular effects on mortality, and in the valuation of a statistical life. In the case of PM₁₀, additional uncertainty results from the small size of the air quality database. Notwithstanding the uncertainties, the indications are that the benefits exceed the costs.