房产税能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"——来自上海和重庆的经验分析

本文利用我国35个大中城市2006-2018年的平衡面板数据,基于上海和重庆在2011年实施的房产税试点政策,运用合成控制法检验房产税政策能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"发展的趋势.研究结果显示,房产税政策能够有效地遏制地区房地产业新增产值占GDP的比重的上升,促使实体企业回归主业,增加实体投资,实现促进实体经济朝着"脱虚返实"方向发展的作用.鉴于此,本文提出应加快推进房产税政策在全国范围内的实施,并在政府补贴、银行贷款等方面采取一系列配套措施鼓励实体企业进行更多的实体投资.     

普惠金融发展的地区差异、收敛性及影响因素研究*——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

本文利用2005—2016年省级面板数据，对我国各地区普惠金融发展水平进行测度，并在此基础上探讨其收敛性及影响因素。结果表明：（1）我国普惠金融发展水平在考察期内总体偏低，并且呈现出显著的地区差异性。（2）绝对β收敛在全国、中部和西部均存在，而东部不存在；条件β收敛在全国、东部和西部均存在，而中部不存在。（3）政府干预程度、市场化程度、人力资本质量、非正规金融以及外商直接投资对普惠金融发展均具有重要的影响。     

继续为多边贸易体制贡献中国力量

入世20年来,中国切实履行入世承诺,逐步从多边贸易体系的学习者、参与者成长为关键角色.中国经济的快速发展得益于多边贸易体系和经济全球化的深度发展,中国独特的经济体制与结构,为WTO以及多边贸易体系的稳定发展提供了源源不断的动力,为全球经济贸易发展注入持久动能,为发展中经济体参与多边贸易体系作出积极贡献.当前,经济全球化迈向新阶段,呈现出许多新的特征,而WTO本身也发生了结构性变化.中国作为推动WTO改革进程、权力结构调整和利益分配的关键力量,在坚定自身立场的同时,应及时顺应全球化变化,积极响应多边贸易治理新需求,为WTO改革贡献中国智慧、中国方案、中国力量,推动多边贸易体系行稳致远.     

江淮汽车成功开拓哈萨克斯坦市场的经验与启示

产能合作是当前和未来促进中哈两国经济协同发展的核心方式,江淮汽车成功进入哈萨克斯坦,对于推进两国制造业产能合作具有重要意义.充分利用国家政策、对接哈萨克斯坦汽车工业发展战略和市场需求、选择恰当国际市场进入模式和营销策略、培植核心竞争力以及积极应对哈萨克斯坦市场的激烈竞争是江淮汽车成功进入哈萨克斯坦市场的关键因素.我国企业应有效对接哈萨克斯坦经济战略,积极参与中哈产能合作;精准目标市场定位,优化产品结构;选择合适的市场进入模式,积极开展本地化生产;不断提升企业的核心竞争力.     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

Open Economies Review - A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit...     

基于FDS的体育馆火灾数值模拟分析

对体育馆的防火分区和疏散距离问题进行分析,针对存在的问题提出了相应的消防措施.建立建筑信息模型(BIM)对不同火源位置、火灾热释放速率、自动灭火系统和排烟系统的有效性进行定量分析,设置一系列火灾场景,利用FDS软件对各火灾场景下的烟气蔓延、最小清晰高度处的温度、CO浓度、能见度进行数值模拟,分析消防安全措施的有效性.模拟结果表明,在采取相应的消防措施后,该体育馆在火灾条件下能够满足整体消防安全疏散的要求.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

Relative-to-rival corporate philanthropy,product market competitiveness,and stakeholders

Unlike most of the literature that examines the relationship between corporate philanthropy and financial performance, this study investigates the mechanisms through which corporate socially responsible behaviors produce financial outcomes. We propose that corporate philanthropy improves corporate competitiveness by eliciting positive responses from stakeholders, who assess a firm’s philanthropic contribution in relation to its rivals to determine what level of support they wish to provide to the firm. We predict that a firm’s philanthropy relative to its rivals has a positive effect on its product market competitiveness, and that this positive effect is moderated by three conditions that influence stakeholder response: stakeholder attention to philanthropy, its perceived legitimacy, and expectations of corporate giving. Our predictions are generally supported by our analyses. Overall, this paper shows that strategic philanthropy has a quantitative dimension, and firms obtain the market competitiveness associated with corporate philanthropy by integrating their rivals’ positions into their decision making.     

如何增强员工凝聚力

众所周知,假如一个企业人心涣散,其发展必不长久。何志毅总裁在《金科玉律》刊首语中曾指出:企业盛衰转换,根本在于文化!而企业文化建设的终极目的,我认为就是增强员工凝聚力。那么,如何增强员工凝聚力呢?我试图从收入、工作满意度、亲和力、员工保障心理、个人发展和人事考核等六个方面分别阐述,结合这两年从事人力资源管理实践,谈谈我个人看法。一、收入人是经济性动物。因而,在人才流动过程中,经济因素必将占有很大比重。收入的多少,不仅仅可以体现为物化的东西,更重要的是对个人价值某种程度上的肯定,从而实现员工自我满足感。但是,纯粹…