FEAR OF FLOATING IN EAST ASIA?

Abstract.  We examine the de facto exchange rate arrangements in eight East Asian countries during the post-Asian crisis period. The empirical results suggest that three countries adopted a hard peg or a peg with capital account restrictions, whereas five countries moved toward a more flexible exchange rate arrangement in the post-crisis period. Three of these five countries (Korea, Indonesia and Thailand) achieved a level of exchange rate flexibility close to the level accomplished in a free floater such as Australia. These results suggest that 'fear of floating' in East Asia is not prevalent in the post-crisis period, supporting the bipolar view of the optimal exchange rate regime.     

The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe

This paper extends our previous research on East Asia to the case of 14 European countries from 1977 to 1999. According to our empirical results, intraindustry trade is again the major channel through which the business cycles of European countries become synchronized. This contrasts with existing studies that found that increased trade itself led to the synchronization of business cycles. Our findings have important implications for the adoption of a currency union, as we expect that the costs of joining a currency union will diminish significantly only when intraindustry trade becomes dominant. JEL no. E32, F33, F36, F41     

Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Account Liberalization: the Case of Korea

The macroeconomic effects of capital account liberalization in Korea are examined. Simple data analysis suggests that capital account liberalization substantially changed the nature and composition of capital flows. Based on the VAR model, the authors find the following stylized facts. First, after capital market liberalization, capital flows become less driven by current account imbalances and therefore become more autonomous. Second, capital account liberalization significantly changes the effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables. Third, capital account liberalization is highly related to consumption and investment booms, and subsequent appreciation of nominal and real exchange rates, which leads to the current account worsening. Finally, there is strong evidence of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in response to capital inflows.     

The Chiang Mai Initiative and Beyond

More than three years have passed since the inception of the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) in May 2000. Although much progress has been made, the present structure of the CMI is still incomplete. The purpose of this paper is to provide a view on the current process and future prospects for regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia. Looking forward, the most realistic scenario is that the countries participating in the CMI will muddle through, continuously discussing modalities of policy dialogue, the types of the surveillance system the CMI needs, and also augmentation of swap amounts without making any substantial progress.