房产税能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"——来自上海和重庆的经验分析

本文利用我国35个大中城市2006-2018年的平衡面板数据,基于上海和重庆在2011年实施的房产税试点政策,运用合成控制法检验房产税政策能否抑制实体经济"脱实向虚"发展的趋势.研究结果显示,房产税政策能够有效地遏制地区房地产业新增产值占GDP的比重的上升,促使实体企业回归主业,增加实体投资,实现促进实体经济朝着"脱虚返实"方向发展的作用.鉴于此,本文提出应加快推进房产税政策在全国范围内的实施,并在政府补贴、银行贷款等方面采取一系列配套措施鼓励实体企业进行更多的实体投资.     

Close relationship with the supervisor may impede employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict

Leader‐member exchange as a form of supportive leadership is expected to foster employee creativity. However, empirical evidence suggested this relationship is complex. This study attempts to address this complexity by proposing and testing a curvilinear mechanism, which attenuates the overall positive effect of LMX on creativity by transmitting a curvilinear indirect effect via vertical task conflict. Results drawn from a sample of 276 supervisor–subordinate dyads provided support for the hypothesized curvilinear indirect effect. Specifically, LMX was found to negatively influence employee creativity by suppressing vertical task conflict for subordinates in high‐quality LMX relationships, while the indirect effect was not significant for subordinates in low‐quality LMX relationships.     

Impulse response function analysis of the impacts of land value-added tax policy on government performance

In this study, an epsilon-based network data envelopment analysis is employed to construct assessment mechanisms for government performance. Moreover, performance indicators of two dimensions of tax collection efficiency and financial effectiveness are measured. We propose a vector autoregression model in which all economic variables are regarded as dependent variables to address the disadvantages of traditional regression model. The conclusions are as follows: (a) measures of tax collection efficiency deteriorated, whereas those of financial effectiveness improved. (b) In an impulse response analysis of the model, an increase in government-published land values produced significantly increased tax collection efficiency.     

Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

如何增强员工凝聚力

众所周知,假如一个企业人心涣散,其发展必不长久。何志毅总裁在《金科玉律》刊首语中曾指出:企业盛衰转换,根本在于文化!而企业文化建设的终极目的,我认为就是增强员工凝聚力。那么,如何增强员工凝聚力呢?我试图从收入、工作满意度、亲和力、员工保障心理、个人发展和人事考核等六个方面分别阐述,结合这两年从事人力资源管理实践,谈谈我个人看法。一、收入人是经济性动物。因而,在人才流动过程中,经济因素必将占有很大比重。收入的多少,不仅仅可以体现为物化的东西,更重要的是对个人价值某种程度上的肯定,从而实现员工自我满足感。但是,纯粹…     

浅谈我国中小企业信用担保体系的问题及对策

以信用担保为中介的中小企业信用担保机构主要发展和成熟于欧美、日本等国家。20世纪90年代以来,我国各地迅速涌现各有特色的中小企业信用担保机构,创造了一定效益,但由于多种原因,也制约着其本身的进一步发展。究其原因,主要是我国信用担保体系建设尚不完善,还存在着这样那样的问题。本文从我国中小企业信用担保体系发展的现状入手,全面分析在建设信用担保体系中出现的各种问题,具体地指出完善我国中小企业信用担保体系建设措施,以此促进我国中小企业信用担保体系的不断完善与健康发展。     

上市公司非公允关联交易治理研究

非公允关联交易在我国上市公司中普遍存在,并对上市公司的业绩产生着重大影响。本文在分析上市公司非公允关联交易产生原因的基础上,从完善立法、首发审核、治理结构、信息披露、定价方法、独立审计等方面探讨了非公允关联交易的治理对策。