Exploring outward FDI and the choice of destination: evidence from Swedish firm-level data

Using Swedish firm-level data on all firms and their affiliates abroad, we investigate what observable firm and country characteristics affect the size of an affiliate in a particular destination. We employ the richness of the data to investigate the importance of destination country factors in explaining firm outward FDI activities and distinguish between the factors that affect such activities in manufacturing versus services firms as well as vertical versus horizontal investments. Our results lend support to existing theories of multinational activity of manufacturing but not services firms. We also find observable differences between vertical and horizontal manufacturing firms that are not always explained by theory.     

Long-Memory,Asymmetry and Fat-Tailed GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Empirical Evidence from the Global Real Estate Markets

In this paper, we address the question of whether long memory, asymmetry, and fat-tails in global real estate markets volatility matter when forecasting the two most popular measures of risk in financial markets, namely Value-at-risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ESF), for both short and long trading positions. The computations of both VaR and ESF are conducted with three long memory GARCH-class models including the Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH), Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH), and Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH (FIAPARCH). These models are estimated under three alternative innovation’s distributions: normal, Student, and skewed Student. To test the efficacy of the forecast, we employ various backtesting methodologies. Our empirical findings show that considering for long memory, fat-tails, and asymmetry performs better in predicting a one-day-ahead VaR and ESF for both short and long trading positions. In particular, the forecasting ability analysis points out that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student distribution turns out to improve substantially the VaR and ESF forecasts. These results may have several potential implications for the market participants, financial institutions, and the government.