The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

State‐owned Enterprises: NWSC's Turnaround in Uganda

Abstract: Oversight agencies in the water sector emphasize performance monitoring based on outputs, such as customers served, volume delivered, and service quality. However, bureaucratic tendencies can curtail operational innovation and creativity. In situations where managers lack full operating knowledge and capacities, proactive and consultative monitoring and regulation can yield benefits. This study reviews the results of Uganda's National Water and Sewerage Corporation's (NWSC) approach to performance monitoring (and ‘self‐regulation’). The purpose of this study is to outline corrective actions undertaken by the NWSC Management and Staff to turn around performance, the sequencing of those steps, and the outcomes from this reform program. The NWSC focuses on promoting improvements in technical processes and input selection. Improvements in service quality and network expansion resulted from aligning performance improvement initiatives with the organization's financial performance and team development. The program's success required managing organizational rigidities and moving towards full cost‐recovery. In particular, organizational incentives and information flows encouraged managers to reduce rules and procedures that hindered strong performance. African proverbs are interspersed throughout the article to underscore key themes and lessons for those designing, implementing, and evaluating infrastructure sector reform initiatives.     

Microsoft's AOL北大核心CSSCISSCI

Why the bidding from Redmond has a whiff of anotherfamous tech deal that didn’t go so well.The idea that Microsoft would take Yahoo as its hapless partner has beendiscussed for years down in the Valley.But most of the folks I’ve talked to pret-ty much dismissed it as too wrong tocontemplate. Even Microsoft, dissed byValley Guys as not getting the Web (seeprevious column here), wouldn’t actual-ly go through with it, Yahoo’s decent dowry notwithstanding.     

Dual Cities? Sectoral Shifts and Metropolitan Income Inequality, 1980–90

The sectoral shift from manufacturing to services is one of several potential explanations for increasing income inequality in the United States. This article reframes national-level explanations of rising inequality at the level of urban labour markets and assesses their relative contributions to levels and trends in metropolitan income inequality. We find that sectoral shifts, especially the rates of deindustrialisation and employment growth in personal services, significantly affect changes in Gini indices for the largest constant-boundary MSAs between 1980 and 1990. In addition, rising metropolitan inequality is associated with the trend towards self-employment and such supply-side factors as local education levels, changing family structure and immigration. The study provides mixed support for the mismatch and global cities hypotheses.     

Estimating Quality‐adjusted Price Changes: Method and Application to VCRs

This paper uses scanner data to generate estimates of quality‐adjusted price changes for video‐recorders. We use hedonic regressions to derive estimates of the changing worth of each quality component. These are then applied to weighted changes in the mix of quality attributes of products to derive estimates of quality‐adjusted price (QAP) changes. The data source used is electronic‐point‐of‐sale (EPOS) scanner data that are available for a wide range of goods. This study provides an example of how such methods can be more widely applied. The estimates of QAP changes correspond to constant‐utility, (hedonic) cost‐of‐living indexes defined in economic theory as the ratio of expenditure functions at constant utility allowing for changing prices and characteristics of goods. This method is proposed as an improvement on the existing direct method , which takes its estimates directly from the coefficients associated with 'time dummies' in a hedonic regression. We finally undertake a matching process, akin to that used by statistical offices, and compare the results. Direct comparisons with RPI estimates and these hedonic approaches are not easy since the approaches use quite different data sets. Our replication of a procedure akin to that used for the RPI on the scanner data set provides insights into sources of potential bias.     

Trade and Domestic Policy Linkage in International Agreements*

A central question in discussions of integrating negotiations over domestic policy (e.g., environmental policy or labor standards) into traditional trade agreements is the degree to which the trade policy and domestic policy provisions of an agreement should be explicitly linked. For example, should the World Trade Organization enforce domestic policy obligations with the threat of the suspension of trade concessions? This article considers the conditions under which linking trade and domestic policy agreements within a self‐enforcing agreement is beneficial, and argues that the benefits of such policy linkage may be lower than is commonly thought.     

The new new financial thing: The origins of financial innovations

The origins of financial innovations have attracted little empirical scrutiny. Using Wall Street Journal articles as an indicator, this paper examines which institutions were the key financial innovators between 1990 and 2002. The evidence suggests that smaller firms account for a disproportionate share of the innovations. Less profitable firms innovate more, though in the years subsequent to the introduction of the innovation, the profitability of the innovators increases significantly. Finally, older, less leveraged firms located in regions with more financial innovations innovate more. While several of the determinants of patenting are similar, small and unprofitable firms do not patent disproportionately.