Confounding and collinearity in regression analysis: a cautionary tale and an alternative procedure,illustrated by studies of British voting behaviour

Quality & Quantity - Many ecological- and individual-level analyses of voting behaviour use multiple regressions with a considerable number of independent variables but few discussions of their...     

Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts

We investigate why new, high-risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment. We develop an equilibrium model in which rational, risk-averse agents overinvest in a risky technology, possibly to the point that its expected return is negative. Overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments. Competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with “keeping up with the Joneses” properties that can induce herding. Because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology, our model can explain why new, risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles.     

The English Football Industry: profit,performance and industrial structure

The English (Association) Football League is a long established industrial cartel selling a highly popular product with only imperfect substitutes. Despite that, the majority of its member clubs lose money and the industry has faced successive financial crises over the last decade. This paper develops an empirical model of the financial performance of English League clubs using a high quality dataset of 48 clubs over the period 1974–89. The underlying model explains how rents are competed away through the maximising behaviour of club owners subject to production constraints. This model is parameterised by a system of equations which describe the behaviour of a maximising owner subject to demand and production constraints. The model is then used to examine the coordination failure which lies at the heart of the English Football League's decline and to assess the prospects for the Premier League.     

Local and National Impacts from Landing North Sea Gas in Western Norway

A bstract . A simple framework is presented for the analysis of the local employment, income, sales , and local government impacts of landing North Sea gas at either of two Norwegian kommunes (municipalities). These impacts indicate the different forms of economic change arising from a major economic development event. The average annual net change in these economic measures is estimated for the operational phase of a gas terminal. The analysis indicated substantial differences in local and regional net gains. Both sites yielded positive neteconomic gains, which means noneconomic and national considerations become key decision determinates. These national issues provide the setting to judge the local/regional net gains. The unresolved questions include the national benefits and costs of the landing decision given the small scale of the Norwegian economy, potential future gas finds, and a fully employed economy.     

实验设计的新前沿

产品和过程开发是业务长期生存的基础，生存和成功的关键是培养创新和减少产品上市时间，同时使产品到达最佳性能。     

The evolution of consumer knowledge and sources of information: Hungary in transition

The authors’ research in Hungary during the period of transition to a market economy provides an opportunity to examine the evolving relationships between consumer product knowledge and its antecedents, including advertising, personal search, interpersonal sources, and brand experience. Their findings, based on survey data collected in Budapest in 1992 and 1998, indicate that the market information variables explain more variance in consumer knowledge later rather than earlier in the transition. Advertising is an important predictor of consumer knowledge later but not earlier in the transition, personal search is important at both times, and interpersonal sources are not important in either time period; brand experience is negatively related to knowledge earlier in the transition and positively related later in the transition. This study allows one to begin to understand the boundary conditions associated with studies conducted in developed economies. Managerial implications for firms investing in transitional economies are presented. Robin A. Coulter (robin.coulter@business.uconn.edu) is Ackerman Scholar and an associate professor of marketing in the School of Business at the University of Connecticut. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh. Her research interests include branding, cross-cultural consumer behavior, advertising, and research methods. Her work has appeared in theJournal of Consumer Research, the Journal of Consumer Psychology, theJournal of Applied Psychology, and theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing. Linda L. Price (llprice@email.arizona.edu) is Soldwedel Professor of Marketing in the Eller School of Management at the University of Arizona. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin. Her research combines qualitative and quantitative methodologies to examine the active, emotional, imaginative aspects of consumers’ decisions and activities, and the social and cultural context of marketplace behaviors. Her work has appeared in theJournal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, and other leading marketing, management, and social science journals. Lawrence Feick (feick@katz.pitt.edu) is a professor of business administration in the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh. He received his Ph.D. from Pennsylvania State University. His current research focuses on cross-cultural consumer behavior, consumer word-of-mouth, and referrals. His work has appeared in the Journal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, the Journal of Consumer Research, Psychological Bulletin, andPublic Opinion Quarterly. Camelia Micu (camelia.micu@business.uconn.edu) is a marketing doctoral candidate at the University of Connecticut. Her research interests include advertising and product trial and cross-cultural consumer behavior.