A method for the analysis of interrelationships between mutually connected events: A cross-impact method

A cross-impact method is developed and adapted to the Socialist planning system, specifically economic growth in Hungary. The method makes it possible to estimate probabilities of occurence of interrelated events, to investigate the chains of effects of such events, and to minimize inconsistencies.     

Analysing the competitiveness of tourism regions in Hungary: new findings

This study assesses the regionalisation of Hungary's tourism regions and investigates the division of national tourism gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, the concentration, spatial disparities and features of these two indicators are examined. The competitiveness of Hungarian counties is analysed using a multi-modal approach and the penetration of these tourism regions is discussed by applying the Tourism Penetration Index. We also calculate the regional GDP across Hungary.     

A strategic network choice model for global container flows: specification, estimation and application

Container flows have been booming for decades. Expectations for the 21st century are less certain due to changes in climate and energy policy, increasing congestion and increased mobility of production factors. This paper presents a strategic model for the movement of containers on a global scale in order to analyse possible shifts in future container transport demand and the impacts of transport policies thereon. The model predicts yearly container flows over the world’s shipping routes and passing through 437 container ports around the world, based on trade information to and from all countries, taking into account more than 800 maritime container liner services. The model includes import, export and transhipment flows of containers at ports, as well as hinterland flows. The model was calibrated against observed data and is able to reproduce port throughput statistics rather accurately. The paper also introduces a scenario analysis to understand the impact of future, uncertain developments in container flows on port throughput. The scenarios include the effects of slow steaming, an increase in land based shipping costs and an increased use of large scale infrastructures such as the Trans-Siberian rail line and the opening of Arctic shipping routes. These scenarios provide an indication of the uncertainty on the expected port throughputs, with a particular focus on the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN SWEDEN

This paper is concerned with the distribution of wealth in Sweden in 1975 and its development during the period 1920–75. The paper is based on a large study on wealth undertaken for the Swedish Commission on Wage-Earners and Capital Formation. The first report from this study was presented in 1979 as a book in Swedish: Roland Spånt, Den svenska förmögenhetsfördelningens utveckling (The Development of the Distribution of Wealth in Sweden), SOU 1979:9. That first report will also be published in English. Prior to that the main results can be found in this paper.
During 1980–81 we intend to publish specific reports on the distribution of shareholding, the effects of inflation, the development of the distribution of wealth 1975–78, the importance of pension rights etc.