Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

A dynamic panel analysis of urban metro demand

A dynamic panel model is used to estimate the effect that fares, income and quality of service have on demand for a sample of 22 urban metros. The estimated price elasticity is −0.05 in the short run and −0.33 in the long run. The estimated long run income elasticity is small but positive (0.18), indicating that metros are perceived as normal goods. The quality of service elasticities are positive and substantially higher than the absolute value of fare elasticities. The implication is that quality of service improvements, rather than fare reductions, may be more effective in increasing metro patronage.     

Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence

Economic thought has often regarded business cycles as asymmetric. This study examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in seven European countries: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1998 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and non-parametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned.     

Modelling volatility by variance decomposition

In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GJR-GARCH model of Glosten et al. (1993), based on additive and multiplicative decompositions of the variance. They allow the variance of the model to have a smooth time-varying structure. The suggested parameterizations describe structural change in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. The main focus is on the multiplicative decomposition of the variance into an unconditional and conditional components. Estimation of the multiplicative model is discussed in detail. An empirical application to daily stock returns illustrates the functioning of the model. The results show that the ‘long memory type behaviour’ of the sample autocorrelation functions of the absolute returns can also be explained by deterministic changes in the unconditional variance.     

Transmission of movements in stock markets

The paper analyses the relationships between three stock markets: New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt. The non-simultaneity of the trading times in these three markets determines the results of cross-correlations and regressions with daily returns. To cope with this and other problems, an empirical model is proposed and estimated. This model allows the separation of the ability to influence and the sensitivity of the different markets, and New York is found to be the most influential market, with Tokyo the most sensitive.     

Public-private partnership for building a resilient broadband infrastructure in Puerto Rico

This article will explore the use of an innovative approach to a public-private partnership (PPP) to spur the deployment of broadband and create more resilient telecommunications networks in Puerto Rico. Such a partnership is a critical ingredient of the plan for rebuilding the telecommunications sector of Puerto Rico after the island was devastated by Hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. The proposed partnership also has the potential for enabling the expansion of citizen access to broadband services throughout Puerto Rico. This work was done as part of the Congressionally mandated economic and disaster recovery plan for the island.     

Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries

This paper studies the existence of a world business cycle by examining quarterly and annual comovements in production, prices and interest rates in the three main world economies: Germany, Japan and the US. In accordance with earlier studies, contemporaneous relationships clearly dominate short-term dynamics. The evidence indicates the existence of strong comovements in prices and long-term interest rates, and, to a lesser degree, in GDP and short-term interest rates. They are, however, rather unstable over time.