Estimation of the occurrence of “short-shipping” of air cargo

Many airlines use the main deck of aircraft to carry passengers and belly capacity to accommodate cargo and baggage. When problems regarding the weight and balance requirements of the aircraft arise, the cargo is the first to be considered for unloading: a practice is known as “short-shipping”. This paper develops a simulation model for estimating the probability of occurrence of short-shipping. Risk analysis is used to estimate the uncertainty of several factors such as the weight of passengers, baggage, and fuel.