THEORIES OF CHOICE UNDER IGNORANCE AND UNCERTAINTY

Abstract. In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries.     

The behavioural intentions of specialty coffee consumers in South Africa

More than 1.6 billion cups of coffee are consumed worldwide on a daily basis. South Africa is rapidly adapting to worldwide trends with speciality coffee consumption on the rise, with South Africa recently having been recognised as a key player in the speciality coffee industry. Emerging market trends in speciality coffee consumption have resulted in a number of changes in consumption patterns, preferences and consumer behaviour. The purpose of this study was to determine the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers in South Africa, using the Theory of Planned Behaviour. The data were gathered from a non‐probability sample of 327 respondents, who were selected through a self‐completion online questionnaire. The results indicate that males consume more speciality coffee than females. The majority of respondents consume speciality coffee more than once a day, and foam cappuccinos are consumed most regularly. The results of the stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrate the utility of the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a conceptual framework for predicting the behavioural intention of speciality coffee consumers. The findings indicate that attitude, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control are important predictors of behavioural intention. Furthermore, perceived behavioural control is the most important factor influencing speciality coffee consumption, and the most influential of the direct measures of the Theory of Planned Behaviour. With the current rise in speciality coffee consumption among South Africans, the Theory of Planned Behaviour framework contributes to understanding those factors which influence regular speciality coffee consumption. It is recommended that marketers and practitioners adapt their offerings to appeal to the specific needs of the growing speciality coffee market in South Africa.     

Cause-related marketing 2.0: Connection,collaboration and commitment

The article aims to explore and revise cause-related marketing (CRM) in light of an emerging concept of the market and the roles assigned to companies and consumers in marketing communication processes. Based on a dialogical reflexive approach to case studies, we take our point of departure in theoretically identifying key CRM constituents and their interrelations, and we show how current theories within CRM build upon axioms of a traditional firm-centric view on value creation and fail to meet the challenges of new market structures and relations. This tension of axioms provides a point of direction for introducing the Pepsi Refresh Project as a case illustration of an alternative CRM practice that redefines CRM from company-driven to community-driven – and points towards relocating CRM from an overt to a covert brand and marketing communication strategy. CRM becomes a joint value- and identity-constructing practice transforming consumer criticism into brand involvement and community commitment. By reflexively merging theoretical and case insights, the contribution of the article lies in the revisiting of existing CRM theories in the context of connected, critical and empowered consumers and the subsequent outlining of what we suggest to be CRM 2.0.     

Successful programs wanted: Exploring the impact of alignment

Alignment between formulation and implementation of business strategy can be important for achieving successful programs. The authors have explored the development of a program management alignment theory. Statistical testing showed that interaction between the study model variables was found to be multidimensional, complex, and subtle in influence. Thus, the authors conclude that programs have both deliberate and emergent strategies requiring design and management to be organized as complex adaptive systems. Program life‐cycle phases of design and transition were often formed from an unclear and confusing strategic picture at the outset, which can make those phases difficult to control. Learning was established as an underlying challenge. The study model demonstrated continuous alignment as an essential attribute contributing toward successful delivery. This requires program design and structure to adopt an adaptive posture.     

The cointegrated vector autoregressive model with general deterministic terms

In the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) literature, deterministic terms have until now been analyzed on a case-by-case, or as-needed basis. We give a comprehensive unified treatment of deterministic terms in the additive model $X_t=\gamma Z_t+Y_t$, where $Z_t$ belongs to a large class of deterministic regressors and $Y_t$ is a zero-mean CVAR. We suggest an extended model that can be estimated by reduced rank regression, and give a condition for when the additive and extended models are asymptotically equivalent, as well as an algorithm for deriving the additive model parameters from the extended model parameters. We derive asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators and discuss tests for rank and tests on the deterministic terms. In particular, we give conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically (mixed) Gaussian, such that associated tests are ${\chi }^2$-distributed.     

Takeovers and cooperatives: governance and stability in non-corporate firms

If consumers wholly or partially control a firm with market power they will charge less than the profit maximizing price. Starting at the usual monopoly price, a small price reduction will have a second order effect on profits but a first order effect on consumer surplus. Despite this desirable static result, it has been argued that cooperatives are vulnerable to take-over by outsiders who will run them as for-profit businesses. This paper studies takeovers of cooperatives. We argue that there will not be excessive takeovers of cooperatives due to the Grossman-Hart problem of free riding during takeovers.     

OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM IN GAMES

This article considers the impact of ambiguity in strategic situations. It extends the existing literature on games with ambiguity‐averse players by allowing for optimistic responses to ambiguity. We use the CEU model of ambiguity with a class of capacities introduced by Jaffrray and Philippe (Mathematics of Operations Research 22 (1997), 165–85), which allows us to distinguish ambiguity from ambiguity‐attitude, and propose a new solution concept, equilibrium under ambiguity (EUA), for players who may be characterized by ambiguity‐preference. Applying EUA, we study comparative statics of changes in ambiguity‐attitude in games with strategic complements. This extends work in Eichberger and Kelsey (Journal of Economic Theory 106 (2002), 436–66) on the effects of increasing ambiguity if players are ambiguity averse.