An Empirical Investigation of Shock Persistence in Economic Time Series*

Whether or not shocks persist has important implications in economics. An empirical study investigates this issue for key Australian and US macroeconomic time series. The existence of persistence is investigated by unit root tests and its magnitude estimated by recently proposed techniques. Results from these different approaches are compared.     

HEALTH INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTPUT IN REGIONAL CHINA

Using a 29‐year (1978–2006) panel of provincial‐level data from China, this article investigates the role of health capital in a human capital model of economic output. Robust evidence is found through panel cointegration analysis that health capital has a significant and positive effect on the Gross Regional Product in China; the effect being stronger in the inland regions compared to the coastal areas based on estimates that account for regional heterogeneity. This article highlights and discusses the potential role of diminishing returns to health investment in this globally important area. (JEL I15, R11, C23)     

Do People Always Pay Less Than They Say? Testbed Laboratory Experiments with IV and HG Values

Hypothetical bias is a long‐standing issue in stated preference and contingent valuation studies—people tend to overstate their preferences when they do not experience the real monetary consequences of their decision. This view, however, has been challenged by recent evidence based on the elicitation of induced values (IV) in the lab and homegrown (HG) demand function from different countries. This paper uses an experimental design to assess the extent and relevance of hypothetical bias in demand elicitation exercises for both induced (IV) and homegrown (HG) values. For testbed purpose, we use a classic second‐price auction to elicit preferences. Comparing the demand curve we elicit in both, hypothetical bias unambiguously (i) vanishes in an IV, private good context and (ii) persists in HG values elicitation context. This suggests hypothetical bias in preference elicitation appears to be driven by “preference formation” rather than “preference elicitation.” In addition, companion treatments highlight two sources of the discrepancy observed in the HG setting: the hypothetical context leads bidders to underestimate the constraints imposed by their budget limitations, whereas the real context creates pressure leading them to bid “zero” to opt out from the elicitation mechanism. As a result, there is a need for a demand elicitation procedure that helps subjects take the valuation exercise sincerely, but without putting extra pressure on them.     

The Path to Service Encounter Performance in Public and Private ‘Bureaucracies’

This article examines the evolution of building societies against a background of environmental change. By the application of specific analytical measures developed by Ansoff five distinct periods of change can be isolated. Key events in the environment have become progressively more novel, less predictable and costlier to deal with, which, in turn, has necessitated both operational and strategic redirection.     

Sport and common‐sense racial science

This paper confronts the salience of arguments that identify the racial basis of athletic ability. It is argued that these notions of racial athleticism are developed through the interaction between ideas and ways of thinking about human beings and racial groups, reflecting Gramsci's concept of ‘common sense’ that explores the complex correspondence between the presentation of fact and opinion, science and myth. The paper suggests that the mobilization of objective scientific method and subjective plural multiculturalist values within racial athleticism help reinforce its claims to logical validity and moral legitimacy. In response, it is argued that the presentation of the biological basis of race and integrity of cultural difference and particularity within a scientific, intuitive, and principled framework constitutes racial athleticism as a powerful common‐sense idea that cannot be easily dismantled by the simple counter‐presentation of alternative facts. Rather, it is suggested that a progressive response requires building an ethical critique that does not use the mantra of social constructionism to evade corporeality and understandings of embodied difference. It is asserted that the iniquitous applications and palatable racism that lurk beneath the reasonable façade of racial athleticism can only be uncovered through interrogating its common‐sense configuration and analytical weaknesses.     

A Re-Examination of the Market Reaction to Failed Mergers

This study examines the revaluation of shares surrounding the cancellation of mergers over the years 1976–1985. The results are first categorized according to the party cancelling the merger and then by subsequent merger activity. The results are as expected: target firms that become involved in merger activity, subsequent to the cancellation, experience positive cumulative prediction errors (CPEs). Targets that do not become involved in subsequent merger activity have CPEs that return to pre-merger announcement levels. These results do not vary when bidders or targets cancel the merger.     

ADVERTISING SUNK COSTS AND CREDIBLE SPATIAL PREEMPTION

Large sunk investments in advertising allow managers to credibly preempt potential entrants by introducing new products prior to anticipated increases in market growth. Previous investment in advertising can lower a firm's cost to introduce new products allowing it to credibly preempt potential entrants. Entrants may not have enough residual share to find it profitable to enter later, and incumbents find it profitable to keep new products in the market even if entrants choose to enter. I present empirical evidence from the RTE cereal industry.