伦敦商学院财务管理需要变革了

过去20年中,各国央行在抑制通胀方面几乎全面告捷,这使得许多政策制定者以为,他们几乎彻底解决了高通胀问题。正如很多定量分析和调查数据所显示的那样,市场参与者们已经认可了这个故事。但是,中央银行真的已经消灭通胀了吗?     

Maximizing benefits in project selection: a hybrid approach

Charitable foundations and government programmes should endeavour to allocate their limited resources to best serve their constituents. Yet, mathematical programming techniques are rarely used despite overwhelming evidence of their superiority in selecting projects that yield higher levels of total benefits. We present a novel ‘hybrid selection model’ that combines binary linear programming and heuristic rank-based models applied to two case studies. The first case focuses on providing services to women and shows a hybrid model would have selected the top three ‘signature’ projects and maintained an above-average overall project benefit while securing a 180% improvement in the number of projects funded, a 66% improvement in the number of women served and a 132% improvement in the total benefit achieved. In the second case, we apply the hybrid approach to data from the US government’s largest forest preservation programme and demonstrate that the hybrid approach could allow the programme to select up to 11 top-scoring projects while still achieving a 97% gain in the total overall benefit compared to their traditional method. These case studies show that the hybrid approach has the potential to be applied in a variety of settings and improve how foundations and programmes achieve their goals.     

Behavioral spillovers and cognitive load in multiple games: An experimental study

We present evidence from laboratory experiments of behavioral spillovers and cognitive load that spread across strategic contexts. In the experiments, subjects play two distinct games simultaneously with different opponents. We find that the strategies chosen and the efficiency of outcomes in one game depends on the other game that the subject plays, and that play is altered in predictable directions. We develop a measure of behavioral variation in a normal form game, outcome entropy, and find that prevalent strategies in games with low outcome entropy are more likely to be used in the games with high outcome entropy, but not vice versa. Taken together, these findings suggest that people do not treat strategic situations in isolation, but may instead develop heuristics that they apply across games.     

Nightmare on Kaiserstrasse

The overhang of debt (private and surging public) is perhaps the principal reason why recessions following financial crises are so deep and lasting. Frequently, a wave of international financial and banking crises is followed by a wave of sovereign defaults. This is the case of the Eurozone crisis today. How might a sovereign debt default of, say, Greece affect the Eurozone? The nightmare scenario is a complete unraveling of the euro. The euro can still be saved, but perhaps only with the weaker countries undergoing major restructuring of their sovereign debt.     

哈佛大学我们还是需要居安思危

在今天全球增长良好的环境下．有关好日子行将结束的警告似乎是异端邪说。在古埃及．约瑟夫曾建议法老在丰收之年提高税额．以使人们不会在歉收之年饿死。法老．当时的埃及领导人听取了这位世界上第一个有记载的商业周期理论家的意见。余下的故事已经是历史了。不过．我们今天的领袖们是否在为周期中不可避免的下跌做准备？我表示怀疑。     

Sampling Minority Business Owners and Their Families: The Understudied Entrepreneurial Experience*

We here review and critique prior research on minority entrepreneurship, paying particular attention to the contributions and limitations of deployed sampling techniques and research methodologies. As based on this review, we then introduce the 2003 and 2005 National Minority Business Owner Surveys—a comprehensive and primary data collection effort that used varied methodologies to secure in‐depth information about random national samples of African American, Korean American, and Mexican American populations as well as a comparison sample of nonminority business owners. We present the initial business ownership profiles developed with these recent data, in part, as a benchmark of the U.S. entrepreneurial experience, and compare the profiles with those presented in prior research. These profiles document similarities and differences across the four groups and provide an empirical foundation for understanding the origin of those similarities and differences. No longer can we ignore the in‐depth study of minority businesses and their owning families nor can we simply assume that all businesses are the same, regardless of minority status or ethnicity.     

Has China's Housing Production Peaked?

China's real estate has been a key engine of its sustained economic expansion. This paper argues, however, that even before the COVID‐19 shock, a decades‐long housing boom had given rise to severe price misalignments and regional supply–demand mismatches, making an adjustment both necessary and inevitable. We make use of newly available and updated data sources to analyze supply–demand conditions in the fast‐moving Chinese economy. The imbalances are then compared to benchmarks from other economies. We conclude that the real estate sector is quite vulnerable to a sustained aggregate growth shock, such as COVID‐19 might pose. In our baseline calibration, using input–output tables and taking account of the very large footprint of housing construction and real estate related sectors, the adjustment to a decline in housing activity can easily trim a cumulative 5–10 percent from the level of output over a period of years.     

Luxury hotels mushrooming and extravagant governments

This paper empirically examines the effect of nontax revenue on demands for luxury hotels in China where the strict public financial supervision is not well-established. Results indicate the nontax revenue significantly influences luxury hotel demands across the country and that government demands have crowding out effect on private demands for luxury hotels, all of which appear more salient in Chinese underdeveloped areas with more severely deficient public financial supervision.     

Audit Education for Future Professionals: Perceptions of New Zealand Auditors

Audit professionals are charged with gathering evidence and expressing their opinions on the financial claims made by others. In New Zealand, as elsewhere, these opinions are relied upon for a myriad of decisions as to the economic position and operations of an organisation. The educational experience that future professionals receive in their tertiary study is important because it lays the pedagogical foundation for this role. The aim of this study is to evaluate those teaching practices, subjects and techniques that might be of value to future audit professionals. The analysis is uniquely from the perspective of the professional members who are most likely to benefit from students' experiences. The literature is used to identify relevant questions, and a survey of 360 professional auditors in New Zealand yielded a 36.4% response rate. A triangulated analysis of comments and scaled questions reveals that these professionals are concerned with communication, small business engagements and the relationships between, for example, risk and planning and independence and ethics. Findings also confirm the value of experiential and practice-informed learning and direct us to a few topics that may accommodate non-traditional teaching methods. Conclusions consider implications for teaching and future research.