Consumer mobility and community tax bases : The financing of local public goods

In a model of economic ‘clubs’, size is fixed and members consuming a public good raise the question of composition; with whom would they rather consume? This depends on the way collective consumption is financed, and three results are proven With a poll tax, clubs must be homogeneous in income for all to be satisfied With a marginal benefit (Lindahl) tax, no consumer is ever satisfied with any composition; and with an income tax, at least one consumer in each club is always dissatisfied. Satisfaction implies there exists no club composition preferred to the existing one.     

Farmers,Biodiversity and Plant Protection: Developing a Learning Environment for Sustainable Tree Cropping Systems

More diverse, perennial cropping systems often have better natural mechanisms for keeping pests at bay. But while scientists emphasise the broad benefits of conservation in terms of effective ecosystem functioning, farmers are more interested in biodiversity for the provision of food or of services such as shade or windbreaks. Because of their limited knowledge of the role of biodiversity in plant protection, farmers sometimes unconsciously disturb natural regulatory mechanisms. Some citrus farmers in Vietnam introduced sapodilla as an intercrop to diversify their source of income, and because this fruit tree requires little care. However, this apparently worthwhile attempt to combine two valuable crops has misfired. The ecological conditions that traditionally sustained natural pest control in citrus have been disturbed, thus trapping farmers in the pesticide treadmill. The weaver ant Oecophylla smaragdina stopped protecting citrus from stinkbugs and leaf-feeding caterpillars after facing competition from the black ant Dolichoderus thoracicus, which favours sapodilla trees as a nesting habitat. To avoid similar scenarios in the future, methods for linking scientific research on ecosystem functions with farmers' own knowledge, experience and priorities are presented. Examples are given of ways in which farmers in perennial cropping systems learn, and how scientists can facilitate this learning process.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

Smallholders download and share videos from the Internet to learn about sustainable agriculture

Of 1,211 farmers and their representatives registered on www.accessagriculture.org, 142 participated in an on-line survey in November 2017, designed to learn farmer’s opinions of Access Agriculture, an NGO which hosts a digital platform where anyone can watch or download videos and other information for free. These farmer learning videos all convey practical information on sustainable agricultural innovations, to encourage farmer experiments. Previous experience showed that smallholders liked having their own copy of videos (e.g. on DVD), but this study showed that farmers are now starting to find their own way to the internet to pro-actively search for information. Although some farmers learn about on-line videos by social contacts, most of the farmers found the videos on www.accessagriculture.org by surfing the web. This suggests that limitations of reaching farmers with traditional forms of video distribution (e.g. DVDs and village screenings) will be partly overcome by the Internet. Youth have become the new information brokers for communities, as elders may lack the digital technology skills needed to use the Internet to get agricultural information. To share videos with other community members, youth will benefit from additional tools, such as an app, to allow easy download and sharing with limited data consumption.     

Adding and subtracting Black-Scholes: A new approach to approximating derivative prices in continuous-time models

We develop a new approach to approximating asset prices in the context of continuous-time models. For any pricing model that lacks a closed-form solution, we provide a closed-form approximate solution, which relies on the expansion of the intractable model around an “auxiliary” one. We derive an expression for the difference between the true (but unknown) price and the auxiliary one, which we approximate in closed-form, and use to create increasingly improved refinements to the initial mispricing induced by the auxiliary model. The approach is intuitive, simple to implement, and leads to fast and extremely accurate approximations. We illustrate this method in a variety of contexts including option pricing with stochastic volatility, computation of Greeks, and the term structure of interest rates.     

The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework

In this study, we present a simple analytic framework that divides the real estate market into two markets: the market for real estate space and the market for real estate assets. After describing the size and character of flows and stocks in the U.S. real estate market, we use our framework to demonstrate the important connections between the space and asset markets. We illustrate how these real estate markets are affected by the nation's macroeconomy and financial markets, tracing out the impacts resulting from various exogenous shocks on rents, asset prices, construction and the stock of real estate.     

Vacancy Rates and the Future of Office Rents

This research confirms the existence of a strong vacancy rental adjustment mechanism in the market for office space, such as has been found in housing markets. Using national time-series data, we find that real office rents drop approximately 2% annually, for every percentage point of "excess vacancy" in the market. We also find that the definition of "excess vacancy" has been trending upward over time. Using a recent vacancy forecast suggests that office income streams seem likely to decline in both real and nominal dollars over the next few years.     

What Determined the Great Cap Rate Compression of 2000–2007, and the Dramatic Reversal During the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis?

In this paper we revisit the many studies that have attempted to explain the determinants of commercial real estate capitalization rates. We introduce two new innovations. First we are able to incorporate two macroeconomic factors that greatly impact cap rates besides treasury rates and local market fundamentals – the variables most commonly used in such research. These are the general corporate risk premium operating in the economy, and the growth rate of debt relative to GDP in the general economy (liquidity). The addition of these factors greatly adds to the ability of previous models to explain the secular fall of cap rates in the last decade and their recent rise – in terms of traditional measures of within-sample fit. Our second innovation is methodological; our analysis uses a large and robust quarterly panel data set of over 30 US metropolitan areas from 1980q1 through 2009q3. With this data we compare 3 models: a “base model” and then one that selectively adds each of our macro-economic variables. We test the ability of each of these models to fit the 2002–2009 period using “back test” dynamic forecasts. Our conclusion is that much of the secular decline in cap rates from 2000 through 2007 and their subsequent rise seem attributable to the macro-economic factors and less to movements in market fundamentals.