What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy,and how might policy affect it?

The answer to the question “What will future potential growth be?” is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth—finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade—finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.     

Weighted Pricing Functionals With Applications to Insurance

Abstract

We explore the role of weighted distributions in pricing insurance risks. In particular, we relate the distributions to actuarial and economic premium calculation principles and in this way provide a unifying methodology for constructing new principles and analyzing known ones.     

Teaching business ethics: Questioning the assumptions,seeking new directions

An examination of leading textbooks suggests the predominance of a principle-based model in the teaching of business ethics. The model assumes that by teaching students the rudiments of ethical reasoning and ethical theory, we can hope to create rational, independent, autonomous managers who will apply such theory to the many quandary situations of the corporate world. This paper challenges these assumptions by asking the following questions: 1. Is the acquisition of principle-based ethical theory unproblematic? 2. What is the transferability of classroom learning to the business context? 3. Is it appropriate to consider complementary models in the teaching of business ethics? The last question is approached from the perspective of virtues-based ethics, from the insights of feminist ethics, and from a culturally grounded orientation to moral values and norms.     

The effect of land-use restrictions on market values of single-family homes in Houston

This paper analyzes the effects of zoning and restrictive covenants on single-family housing prices in and around Houston, Texas. The calculation of a hedonic price index reveals that higher prices are paid for homes in neighborhoods with either type of land-use control than for comparable houses in neighborhoods without these controls. The premiums paid for these restrictions are not statistically distinguishable, but institutional constraints on these controls may explain why both forms continue to exist and to command market premiums.     

The Contribution of Financial Management Training and Knowledge to Dairy Farm Financial Performance

Cooperative Extension and other institutions (e.g., technical colleges, on-line self study programs, university short courses, etc.) frequently stress the importance of financial management education for successful farming operations. The research reported in this paper attempts to quantify the contributions of such training to the financial performance of dairy farms in Wisconsin. Our results suggest a link between a deeper understanding of financial concepts and greater financial returns but that it is a relatively weak one. Moreover, simple exposure to farm management training programs and self-confidence in farm financial decision-making ability are not significantly related to farm financial outcomes.     

Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

To understand the possible trajectory of inflation in 2022 and beyond, it is helpful to understand why the United States and Europe had so much inflation in 2021.

     

The Roles of Heuristics,Avalanche Forecast,and Risk Propensity in the Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers

Backcountry winter recreation accidents and deaths due to avalanches have grown considerably in recent decades. To better understand how individuals make decisions in avalanche terrain, this study examined the decision-making factors identified by McCammon (2004) McCammon, I. 2004. Heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents: Evidence and implications. Avalanche News, 68: 1–10.  [Google Scholar] that are said to be complicit in avalanche accidents. This study also explored risk-taking propensity and avalanche forecast variables in decision making. Results indicate that five decision-making factors, risk-taking propensity, and avalanche forecast variables influence the decision to ski a slope. Implications for how individuals make decisions in risky leisure pursuits are discussed and implications for outdoor recreation, and avalanche education are considered.     

Globalization and population drivers of rural-urban land-use change in Chihuahua,Mexico

A thorough examination of the causes of land-use change is necessary to effectively deal with the magnitude of changes across the globe. Chihuahua, Mexico is experiencing rapid land-use changes due to processes of globalization. The emergence of Mexico's maquiladora program is an indicator of economic globalization that has had far-reaching social and environmental consequences. This article examines population and income patterns from 1970 to 2000 as part of a hierarchical system and tests whether or not processes of globalization can be detected in the patterns. Findings indicate that population and income concentrate primarily in Juarez, while simultaneously deconcentrating in most other municipios of the State. Moreover, these patterns correlate with patterns of maquiladora concentration. Additional findings identify proximity to the US and established urban centers as drivers of population concentration. These findings support the notion that patterns and processes of globalization are important drivers of population and income concentration at the local level in Chihuahua, Mexico. Finally, the findings support the conceptualization of population land-use and income concentration as part of a hierarchical system.     

Well-being and leisure-time physical activity psychosocial factors predict physical activity among university students

ABSTRACT

Drawing from literature supporting top-down (i.e., well-being impacting leisure) and bottom-up (i.e., leisure impacting well-being) models explaining the bi-directional relationship between leisure and well-being, this study examines the complex relationship of well-being, leisure constraints, and leisure negotiation factors in predicting leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) rates among university students. Six hundred sixty-one university students completed an online questionnaire assessing psychological well-being (PWB), LTPA constraints, LTPA negotiation strategies, and LTPA rates. A multiple regression analysis indicated bottom-up and top-down variables jointly predict LTPA. In regards to bottom-up psychological LTPA variables, LTPA was positively predicted by LTPA planning and prioritisation skills and negatively predicted by constraints to recreation facility spaces, lack of time, and utilising financial strategies. In regards to top-down well-being, influences on LTPA, LTPA rates were negatively predicted by personal growth and positively predicted by autonomy. We highlight how the study findings might inform intentional university health promotion policies and programming, leading to a culture of student well-being through LTPA.