Teaching about the future

Since 1984 UNESCO has been developing a programme of prospective studies. This programme was re-named ‘future-oriented studies’ and is now centred around three groups of activities: a project on the futures of culture; the development of education and training with special emphasis on disseminating the methodology of future-oriented studies; and the creation of an international bibliographic database called FUTURESCO. An invitational seminar, ‘Teaching about the future’, held in Vancouver, 21–23 June 1992, was a direct consequence of the above. It was organized and hosted by UNESCO (with FUTURESCO and the Canadian Commission for UNESCO). It brought together about 20 professional futurists from Pacific Basin countries to consider a range of theoretical, practical and pedagogic issues associated with teaching futures, mainly at the tertiary level.     

The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

二十四岁，不谈恋爱谈理财

PART124岁的理财故事 毕业后,林琳进了一家杂志社,从助理编辑做起,转眼3年过去了,她不仅完成了一次完美的跳槽,同时也获得了丰厚的薪水,月薪达6000元,跟男友王小伟的3500元相比,林琳的薪水算是比较高了。     

Evaluating an Agricultural Extension Program Aimed at Improving Biodiversity in Alberta,Canada

We evaluate an agricultural extension program aimed at increasing on‐farm biodiversity in Alberta. Using reports prepared for program participants by the extension agency, customized surveys were used to collect data on whether recommended practices were adopted. Data were also collected from producers who were willing but unable to participate in the program due to its unexpected cancellation. A count model compared the number of practices adopted by participants and nonparticipants to evaluate the program's efficacy, and a probit model using participants’ adoption data were used to understand factors affecting adoption. Simple, low‐cost, and easily trialed practices were adopted at high rates, though some higher cost practices associated with observable benefits were also adopted at moderate or high rates. Farm‐specific characteristics, such as size, tenure, or group membership were also significantly linked to the likelihood of adoption. Results suggest that the extension program was successful in encouraging adoption of environmentally beneficial practices with caveats; project completion and quality were not verified, and decreasing marginal returns to extension efforts may have been realized within the small participant pool. Nous évaluons un programme d'éducation permanente en agriculture visant l'augmentation de la biodiversité fermière en Alberta. Utilisant des rapports préparés par les agences d'éducation pour les participants de programmes, des sondages individualisés ont servi à la collecte de données concernant l'adoption de pratiques recommandées. Des données ont aussi été recueillies auprès de producteurs qui auraient voulu participer mais qui n'ont pas profité du programme suivant son annulation inattendue. Un modèle de comptage a servi à comparer le nombre de pratiques adoptées par les participants et non‐participants pour évaluer l'efficacité du programme, et un modèle probit basé sur les données d'adoption par les participants a servi à comprendre les facteurs ayant un impact sur l'adoption. Les pratiques simples, peu coûteuses et faciles à tester ont été hautement adoptées. Certaines pratiques à coûts plus élevés, associées à des avantages observables, ont aussi vu des taux moyens et élevés d'adoption. Les caractéristiques spécifiques aux exploitations agricoles comme la taille, la longévité et l'adhésion à un groupe se sont aussi trouvées liées de façon significative aux probabilités d'adoption. Les résultats suggèrent que le programme d'éducation permanente a réussi à encourager l'adoption de pratiques bénéfiques pour l'environnement avec quelques bémols: la réalisation des projets et leur qualité n'ont pas fait l'objet de vérification, et la diminution des rendements marginaux en fonction des efforts d'éducation pourrait avoir été réalisée dans le cadre d'un petit bassin de participants.     

Further participatory adaptation is required for community leaders to champion conservation agriculture in Africa

There is a recognized need for the participation of local communities in designing and implementing agricultural interventions for the sustainable intensification in smallholder systems. This study examines the perspectives of local community leaders towards the widely promoted, but not widely adopted, practice of Conservation Agriculture (CA) in African smallholder systems. Perceptions from 47 community leaders (both from traditional local authorities and farmer organizations) across six African countries are documented regarding how CA matches the wants, needs and capabilities of farmers in their communities. While community leaders generally perceived CA as potentially beneficial, they also indicated that CA is not currently perceived as feasible within their communities and hence has limited relevance. Three key themes were identified that limit both CA use and sustainable intensification more generally: [1] a perceived reluctance of farmers to engage with the community platform as part of a higher input, market-oriented production system; [2] informational constraints due to non-functional exchange mechanisms; and [3] a lack of local adaptation of CA underscored by the persistence of top-down, linear research and extension approaches. Through greater understanding of local perspectives, a clearer picture emerges of the need for greater participatory engagement and local adaptation if sustainable intensification of African smallholder agricultural systems is to be achieved.     

Changes in sponsorship value: Competencies and capabilities of successful sponsorship relationships

The sponsorship relationship has evolved considerably over the past few years. As a result, the value delivered to both sponsors and the sports entities with which they form relationships needed to be redefined. While some of these partners have made the necessary leap forward, some sponsors have also been confronted with resistance on the part of sport entities to adapt to evolving perceptions of value. Based on a qualitative study aimed at canvassing the views of some of the most prominent experts in the field and spanning 4 years and four continents, we document this evolution of sponsorship value and identify those key competencies that differentiate successful sponsors from less successful ones. Our research provides insights for other inter-firm relationships, particularly those in the service sector.     

Wilderness Canoeing in Ontario: Using Cumulative Results to Update Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Offer Amounts

This study used cumulative results to update the distributions from which offer amounts were drawn in a dichotomous choice contingent valuation of user benefits from wilderness canoeing in Ontario's wilderness parks. An empirical model demonstrates the efficiency gains from using this procedure. Results allow comparison of variation in average daily willingness to pay (WTP) by trip length, indicating decreasing average benefits per trip-day. Two payment vehicles were used. Canoeists indicated ranges of WTPs which conformed to expected hypotheses when the payment vehicle was an increase in general trip costs. However, the same respondents indicated an upper bound on WTP when the payment vehicle was an increase in the provincial park backcountry permit price.