Specialisation,localisation, and trade value in the wake of cross-border production sharing. The Central Eastern European Countries' case

We focus on five among the sectors in which most of the CEECs’ trade in middle products with EU-15 is concentrated. Over the second half of the 1990s, we observe remarkable changes in both production and trade specialization as well as a significant relocation of industries within CEECs. Using jointly trade and production data we outline co-movements in the adjustment of specialisation patterns. We also show that the redistribution of activities at the regional level reflects the relocation of industries at the global level. Finally, we try to detect the scope of fragmentation of production characterizing each industry and the ways in which CEECs are moving along the “internationally sliced-up value chain”. (JEL: F10, F14, F15)     

Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model

Anderson and vanWincoop developed what has become the standard framework for framing and interpreting empirical work using the gravity model. Their framework relies heavily on an assumption of symmetry among countries. For issues related to North‐South trade, this assumption is problematic. In this paper, we develop an asymmetric extension of the Anderson–vanWincoop framework appropriate to the analysis of North‐South trade, where Northern countries produce differentiated goods and Southern countries homogenous ones. In addition, we use an appropriately extended version of Baier and Bergtrand and Taylor linear expansion – thus permitting its estimation using (good old) OLS. The result is an empirical model that (i) is better suited to the analysis of North‐South trade, (ii) is easy to estimate and compute comparative statics, not requiring a customised NLS routine and, given the way the South is included, (iii) provides a simple explanation of zero trade flows between some country pairs, a fact still not fully explained in the literature. As an illustration of its use, we examine the empirical link between foreign aid and trade.     

France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France’s integration with the rest of the world has increased over time. Third, there is some tentative evidence of regional components in explaining French output fluctuations; country-specific components also contribute. The predominance of exogenous factors affecting French output, the asymmetry in the transmission of shocks, and France’s participation in a currency area argue for making French goods, services, and labor markets as flexible as possible.     

Modernization, weather variability, and vulnerability to famine

This paper shows that under weather variability the transformation from a rural to an incomplete market economy can increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine. This can occur even if improvements in technology have raised agricultural productivity and made production less responsive to weather variability. Indeed, negative environmental shocks can produce a drop in wages that outweighs the increase in wages due to an equivalent positive environmental shock. Consequently, the amount of grain stored increases more slowly in good seasons than it decreases in bad ones. This paper gives new insights on the catastrophic effects produced by widespread droughts in India during the second half of the 19th century. Notwithstanding the introduction of new modes of production and the modernization of infrastructures, the interaction between environmental variability and new institutional arrangements might have contributed to increase the vulnerability of peasants to famine.     

Linking participatory and GIS-based land use planning methods: A case study from Burkina Faso

Sustainable land use planning is crucial for realizing the aim of food security and for combating land degradation in the Sahel. A participatory land use planning workshop was organised in a village in the eastern region of Burkina Faso to investigate land use problems, their causes, effects and possible solutions. Participatory research tools and GIS were combined to get insight into possible conflicts or synergies between different land use options as mapped by different ethnic groups. Pictograms were used to locate alternative land use options on the map, after which they were digitised for analysis with GIS. The workshop confirms the importance of integrating scientific and local knowledge to develop concrete options for sustainable land use that fit to local realities and aspirations. Local people are knowledgeable about the driving forces behind land degradation, they take actions to combat the effects of degradation, and they have concrete ideas about alternative land use options. The use of GIS proved its added value in the participatory process of integrated land use planning. The maps that were produced also facilitate discussions between community members, researchers and government representatives at the regional level, both regarding current land use problems and regarding alternative options as perceived by the local population.     

Analyzing the global human appropriation of net primary production — processes, trajectories, implications. An introduction

Humanity's role in shaping patterns and processes in the terrestrial biosphere is large and growing. Most of the earth's fertile land is used more or less intensively by humans for resource extraction, production, transport, consumption and waste deposition or as living space. Biomass production on cropland, grazing areas and in managed forests dominates area requirements, but other processes such as soil degradation, human-induced fires and expansion of settlements and infrastructure play an increasingly important role as well. The growing human domination of terrestrial ecosystems contributes to biodiversity loss as well as to a reduced capability of ecosystems to deliver vital services such as buffering capacity, soil conservation or self-regulation. This special section is devoted to the presentation of recent research into the patterns, determinants and implications of the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP), an integrated socio-ecological indicator of land use intensity. By measuring the combined effect of land conversion and biomass harvest on the availability of trophic energy (biomass) in ecosystems, HANPP explicitly links natural with socioeconomic processes and allows for integrated analyses of land systems. This introductory article explains the rationale that links current HANPP research to Ecological Economics and discusses issues of definition and methods shared by all articles included in the special section. Finally, it gives an overview of the individual papers, provides some general conclusions and presents an outlook for future research: a better understanding of long-term trajectories of HANPP, of the significance of trade patterns as well as of the future role of bioenergy are highlighted as important issues to be addressed in the coming years.     

The convertibility of the rouble

Conclusion After a relatively long period of discussion, characterised by an uncertain approach towards transition, the Soviet authorities are now moving with decision towards the market. This statement applies to the reform as a whole and in particular to convertibility.The convertibility process in the Soviet Union started from a relatively unfavourable position: not only because of the complete (internal and external) inconvertibility of the Rouble, but also because the country's past displays a sort of structural propensity towards inconvertibility.It took the Soviet authorities some years to dismiss the doctrine of a parallel currency and the idea that convertibility is the final step of the transition. Recent legislative production in the Soviet Union (in particular the Banking law and the Currency law) are a good sign that they are proceeding in the right direction and practical experience seems to confirm this statement.In 1991 the process has accelerated and more important progress was made towards unification of the exchange rates and the creation of a currency market: these are two steps which are fundamental for achieving partial external convertibility (current account operations made by non-residents), which in its turn is the first step towards broader convertibility. Probably within the end of the year external partial convertibility will be reached. This at last will increase the foreign contribution to the Soviet economy, thus improving domestic conditions. The events of August 1991 will most likely further accelerate the pace of the process, which is now without doubt irreversible.Even if qualitatively positive results are achieved in the reform process however, great effort must still be made not only to complete and consolidate these results, but also to proceed further towards internal and financial convertibility.     

Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.     

Experimental evidence on tax salience and tax incidence

Although a basic theoretical principle in public economics assumes that individuals optimize fully with respect to the introduction of a tax, a growing body of research is proving that several heuristics are in place when people take decisions. We re‐examine the well known liability side equivalence principle in the light of the concept of salience. While these two topics have been extensively investigated in isolation, this paper innovates on the previous literature in that it focuses on their joint effects. Is tax incidence dependent on whether the subjects face a salient rather than a nonsalient tax? Does the salience of a tax exert a different effect depending on who is legally committed to bear the tax burden? We address these questions through a laboratory experiment in which one unit of a fictitious good is being traded through a double‐auction market institution. Based on a panel data analysis, our contribution shows that point of collection matters and determines the economic incidence of tax. Additionally, we find that the joint effect of salience and statutory incidence does not alter the informative efficiency, but has a positive effect on buyers’ allocational efficiency when the tax is levied on sellers.