今年中国贸易顺差增速料将放缓

2007年中国贸易顺差上升近50％，达到创纪录的2620亿美元，但在去年最后3个月，进口增速均超过了出口增速，表明存在争议的外汇储备大幅上升期可能正渐近结束。     

A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises

This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the ‘third generation’, in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms’ credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four main features (i) ex post deviations from purchasing power parity; (ii) credit constraints a la Bernanke-Gertler; (iii) foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms; (iv) a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short-term lending facilities. We derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises. We show that an interest rate increase intended to support the currency in a crisis may not be effective, but that a relaxation of short-term lending facilities can make this policy effective by attenuating the rise in interest rates relevant to firms.     

Investigating the Pleasures of Sin: The Contingent Role of Arousal‐Seeking Disposition in Consumers' Evaluations of Vice and Virtue Product Offerings

Mixed bundles of vice and virtue are an increasingly important product category. However, many mixed bundles fail in the marketplace, and so it is important to examine how consumers evaluate such mixed bundles. This paper examines consumers' affective responses and consequent purchase evaluations for a mixed vice‐virtue bundle versus a pure vice product. Results of Study 1 show that purchase intentions are higher for a pure vice product versus a mixed product; also, increased purchase intentions are mediated by differences in arousal. Given that consumers differ in their arousal‐seeking dispositions, results of Studies 2 and 3 show that individual differences in arousal‐seeking moderate the relationship between product type (pure vice product vs. mixed product) and purchase intentions, with arousal‐seeking consumers preferring pure vice bundles, and arousal‐avoidant consumers preferring mixed bundles. This paper contributes to theory on mixed vice‐virtue bundles, and also provides pointers on how to better market mixed bundles.     

How artificial intelligence will change the future of marketing

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science - In the future, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to substantially change both marketing strategies and customer behaviors. Building from not only...     

Restoring balance: How history tilts the scales against privacy. An Actor-Network Theory investigation

In this paper we problematize the metaphor of balance employed in the area of information privacy. Using Actor-Network Theory we conduct an historical investigation into the continuous release of the same personal data over the course of eight decades. Through the examination of actual enactments of balance over time we find that, in practice, balancing acts are conducted at local levels by local actor-networks within organizations, with limited overall organizational knowledge, raising challenges around interpreting statements made by organizational spokespersons. We also find a surprising lack of knowledge possessed by these local actor-networks about what is subsequently done with personal data and the extent to which networks that extend beyond the organization gravitate towards and form around available data. Through tracing and revealing this historical Actor-Network Theory investigation provides a means of probing and examining actual acts of balance in the area of information privacy and, through revelation, aid in the creation of the possibility of bringing the act of balance more in line with the concept.     

Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) generation in new media platforms: The role of regulatory focus and collective dissonance

In this research, we examine the role of two motivational forces associated with creation of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM): regulatory focus and collective dissonance. Our studies show that generation of eWOM is enhanced by regulatory fit, while traditional WOM is dominated by the negativity effect. In study 1A, we show that prevention-focused consumers produce stronger intentions to post eWOM when they undergo a negative compared to a positive service experience. In study 1B, we find that promotion-focused consumers are more likely to post eWOM in reaction to a positive service experience when one's self-construal is independent. The final study shows that due to collective dissonance, consumers have greater intentions to create eWOM when their experiences are inconsistent with others' postings. We discuss the implications of these results for the development and management of eWOM communication in virtual communities.     

A Comparison of Print Advertisements from the United States and France

Abstract

This study extends the research on cross-cultural advertising by comparing print advertisements from the United States and France in terms of emotional appeals, information content, and use of humor and sex. A content analysis of advertisements from two types of magazines from the United States and France revealed that French advertisements make greater use of emotional appeals, humor, and sex appeals. Advertisements from the United States were found to contain more information cues.     

Trade,Growth, and Increasing Returns to Infrastructure: The Role of the Sophisticated Monopolist*

Equilibrium in international trade with increasing returns in infrastructure depends on whether the infrastructure provider is “naïve” or sophisticated. A monopolist produces infrastructure under decreasing cost using fixed equipment. Unlike similar work, we derive a unique closed‐economy equilibrium. In a small open economy, with “naïve” infrastructure provider(s), multiple equilibria obtain. The industrial export potential of the economy depends on unexhausted economies of scale, and equilibria are possible where manufactures are exported despite an autarky price higher than the world price. With a sophisticated infrastructure provider, even an open economy has a unique equilibrium, which, at least as long as economies of scale are unexhausted, also involves more industrialization than the “naïve” equilibria. Access to the unlimited world market is necessary for significant industrialization but is not sufficient: one may also require “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurs, monopolists with a panoramic vision of the economy and of their catalytic role in it.     

The influence of product knowledge and brand name on internal price standards and confidence

This study examines the influence of product knowledge (after adjusting for subjects' brand-specific price knowledge) and brand image (via the brand name) on estimates of internal price standards (i.e., lowest, average, and highest price estimates) for two categories of electronic products. The impact of differing levels of product knowledge on consumers' confidence in their internal price estimates is also studied. The hypothesized effect of brand image on price estimates was greater for novice consumers than for experts for one of the two product categories. In addition, confidence in price estimates was found to be higher for experts than for novices for both product categories. These findings suggest that the relationship between product knowledge and brand image should be considered when studying the impact of external reference price on internal price standards. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Consumer perceptions of tensile price claims in advertisements: An assessment of claim types across different discount levels

Findings are reported for two studies that examined the effects of three forms of tensile price claims (i.e., stating a minimum, maximum, or range of savings) on consumers’ price perceptions, search and shopping intentions, and estimates of price reduction across four different discount range levels. Hypotheses are offered based on a rationale drawn from an anchoring and adjustment framework. Results of both studies indicate that for broader discount ranges, tensile claims stating the maximum level of savings have more positive effects than those stating the minimum level or the entire savings range. For more narrow discount ranges, tensile claims stating the maximum level of savings appear to be no more effective than claims stating the minimum level or the entire savings range. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing from the University of Houston in 1988. Dr. Biswas’s work has been published or is scheduled to appear in the Journal of Marketing, Journal of Macromarketing, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Advertising, Journal of Consumer Affairs, Psychology and Marketing, and Journalism Quarterly, as well as other refereed journals and proceedings. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing from the University of Houston and a B.B.A. and M.B.A. from the University of Texas. His research has been published in the Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Public Opinion Quarterly, and others.