Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence

The majority of economic decisions are forward-looking and thus involve expectations of future outcomes. Understanding the expectations that individuals have is thus of crucial importance to designing and evaluating policies in health, education, finance, migration, social protection, and many other areas. However, the majority of developing country surveys are static in nature and many do not elicit subjective expectations of individuals. Possible reasons given for not collecting this information include fears that poor, illiterate individuals do not understand probability concepts, that it takes far too much time to ask such questions, or that the answers add little value. This paper provides a critical review and new analysis of subjective expectations data from developing countries and refutes each of these concerns. We find that people in developing countries can generally understand and answer probabilistic questions, such questions are not prohibitive in time to ask, and the expectations are useful predictors of future behavior and economic decisions. The paper discusses the different methods used for eliciting such information, the key methodological issues involved, and the open research questions. The available evidence suggests that collecting expectations data is both feasible and valuable, suggesting that it should be incorporated into more developing country surveys.     

Subsidiary knowledge flow strategies and purpose of expatriate assignments

Although a general association between the role of international assignees and knowledge transfer has been noted in the international human resource literature, very little is known on how subsidiary knowledge flow strategies influence the purpose of expatriate assignments. Building specifically on Gupta and Govindarajan’s typology of subsidiary knowledge flow strategies and Hocking’s expatriate assignment purpose, we examine the link between subsidiary knowledge flow and the purpose of expatriate assignments using a mixed method approach. Combining survey data and qualitative interviews from 156 subsidiaries in the service and manufacturing sector in Malaysia and Singapore, we find that subsidiaries with divergent strategic roles have different knowledge flow strategies, thus leading to different purposes of expatriate assignments.     

Alliance or Acquisition? A Mechanisms‐Based,Policy‐Capturing Analysis

Research summary : While alliance researchers view prior partner‐specific alliance experience as influencing firms' subsequent alliance or acquisition decisions, empirical evidence on the alliance versus acquisition decision is surprisingly mixed. We offer a reconciliation by proposing and testing an analytical framework that recognizes prior partner‐specific experiences as heterogeneous along three fundamental dimensions: partner‐specific trust, routines, and value certainty. This allows us to use a policy‐capturing methodology to rigorously operationalize and test our mechanism‐level predictions. We find that all three mechanisms can increase the likelihood of a subsequent alliance or acquisition, and in terms of the comparative choice between alliances versus acquisitions, partner‐specific trust pulls towards alliances, and value certainty pulls towards acquisitions. We conclude with a discussion of the theoretical and empirical implications of our approach and method . Managerial summary : This study focuses on an important corporate decision: When a firm has had an alliance with another firm, how would that experience affect the likelihood of a future alliance or acquisition with that same firm? We first suggest that it will depend on three factors: the level of trust that existed in that prior alliance, the extent to which specific work routines were developed, and the degree to which the firm was able to confidently assess the value of the partner firm's resources. We then find that trust is a particularly strong predictor of future alliances, while confidence regarding value more strongly predicts future acquisitions. In this way, we demonstrate more precisely how past corporate choices can affect (consciously or unconsciously) future ones . © 2017 The Authors. Strategic Management Journal Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Spline regression for hazard rate estimation when data are censored and measured with error

In this paper, we study an estimation problem where the variables of interest are subject to both right censoring and measurement error. In this context, we propose a nonparametric estimation strategy of the hazard rate, based on a regression contrast minimized in a finite‐dimensional functional space generated by splines bases. We prove a risk bound of the estimator in terms of integrated mean square error and discuss the rate of convergence when the dimension of the projection space is adequately chosen. Then we define a data‐driven criterion of model selection and prove that the resulting estimator performs an adequate compromise. The method is illustrated via simulation experiments that show that the strategy is successful.     

PILL,PATCH, OR SHOT? SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS AND BIRTH CONTROL CHOICE*

When choosing a contraception method, women base their decisions on their subjective expectations about the realizations of method‐related outcomes. Examples of outcomes include getting pregnant and contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD). I combine innovative data on probabilistic expectations with observed contraceptive choices to estimate a random utility model of birth control choice. The availability of expectations data is essential to identify preferences from beliefs. Effectiveness, protection against STDs, and partner's disapproval are found to be the most important factors in the decision process. The elicited expectations and inferred preference parameters are used to simulate the impact of various policies.     

Between Morals and Markets? An Interdisciplinary Conceptual Framework for Studying Working Conditions at Catholic Social Service Providers in Belgium and Germany

Journal of Business Ethics - The development of commercial revenue streams allows traditional nonprofit organizations to increase financial certainty in response to the reduction of traditional...     

Scope economies and technical efficiency of cocoa agroforesty systems in Ghana

A number of studies have addressed issues relating to the physiological, environmental and economic values of trees in cocoa farming systems. However, to date, little has been done to quantitatively examine the effect of crop diversity on cocoa farming efficiency. This study therefore sets out to first investigate whether and to what extent crop diversity (defined as the mixing of cocoa with other crop species on farmers' plots) affects productivity on cocoa farms. Secondly, it sought to establish whether there are economies of scope (i.e., cost complementarities) from the sharing of farm inputs by crops on the same plots. Our results indicate that diversified (i.e., multi-crop) cocoa farms are more efficient than single (i.e., mono) crop farms. Furthermore, our estimate for the economies of scope parameter indicates possibilities for cost complementarities between production of cocoa and other crops on the same plot. We advocate further investigation on the issue of scope economies to determine which crop combinations offer better cost complementarities and also meet biodiversity conservation objectives.     

Clean development mechanism implementation: External and organizational factors drives expected business benefits

This study aims to deal with the challenge of rationalizing and testing the interrelationships assumptions of external and organizational factors in the case of clean development mechanism implementation. Prior studies are lacking to introduce the expected business benefits as a mediator between external factors and clean development mechanism implementation. The moderating effect of environmental resources was rationalized and evaluated. The data were collected from 130 ISO 14001 certified manufacturing firms and analyzed using the partial least squares technique. The results revealed that expected business benefits mediate the impacts of all considered external factors and cause an insignificant direct association between market pressure and mechanism implementation. Organizational resources moderate positively the impact of competitor pressure on mechanism implementation. The findings extend the literature by illustrating the dependency of external factors and organizational factors and challenging the results of the studies, which have been driven by independence assumption. The findings are enabling policy-makers and managers to effectively modify the strategies for enhancing the extent of mechanism implementation.