人民币继续升值并非出路

最近,美国财政部长约翰·斯诺(John Snow)强烈要求中国进一步放宽人民币的每日交易区间,他强调,人民币升值是调整全球失衡必不可少的一部分.赤字国家的许多评论员也持相同观点,当然,最热切的是全美制造商协会(National Association of US Manufacturers).多数人主张,美国也必须削减财政赤字,但如果削减赤字的同时,亚洲的货币却没升值,那么世界将陷入衰退.言下之意是,亚洲应该先履行自己的义务.从基本上未被重视的亚洲角度看,这种惬意的共识是错误、自私和危险的.     

Redesigning Regulation of Pensions and Other Financial Products

We observe that financial regulation is ever-growing, with thelatest area to experience increased supervisory attention beingpensions. Yet this has not made the financial world or consumerssafer, and for pensions in particular there are unexpected andundesired consequences. We explore the current policy approachto supervision, which is ‘bottom up’, i.e. assessmentand regulation of individual institutions, with the aim ofmakingthe financial system safe by making each institution safe. Weshow that this is both damaging (because it stifles innovation)and does not work (because risk will always be squeezed fromthe regulated institutions to the less regulated and less seen).Instead, we advocate a ‘top-down’ approach, whichfocuses on making the system safe first. We conclude that onceyou have made systems safe, detailed supervision of individualinstitutions is less necessary, thus reducing the burden ofsupervision. We believe that this approach will lead to a moresuitable and diverse treatment of different risks that willincrease both systemic and consumer safety. ‘If you haveten thousand regulations you destroy all respect for the law’,Winston Churchill (1931). ‘The ultimate result of shieldingmen from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools’,Herbert Spencer (1891). Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: n.barr{at}lse.ac.uk; john_nugee{at}ssga.com     

Forecasting the yield curve with linear factor models

In this work we compare the interest rate forecasting performance of a broad class of linear models. The models are estimated through a MCMC procedure with data from the US and Brazilian markets. We show that a simple parametric specification has the best predictive power, but it does not outperform the random walk. We also find that macroeconomic variables and no-arbitrage conditions have little effect to improve the out-of-sample fit, while a financial variable (Stock Index) increases the forecasting accuracy.     

Spatial stochastic frontier models: accounting for unobserved local determinants of inefficiency

This paper analyzes the productivity of farms across 370 municipalities in the Center-West region of Brazil. A stochastic frontier model with a latent spatial structure is proposed to account for possible unknown geographical variation of the outputs. The paper compares versions of the model that include the latent spatial effect in the mean of output or as a variable that conditions the distribution of inefficiency, include or not observed municipal variables, and specify independent normal or conditional autoregressive priors for the spatial effects. The Bayesian paradigm is used to estimate the proposed models. As the resultant posterior distributions do not have a closed form, stochastic simulation techniques are used to obtain samples from them. Two model comparison criteria provide support for including the latent spatial effects, even after considering covariates at the municipal level. Models that ignore the latent spatial effects produce significantly different rankings of inefficiencies across agents.

Enhancing Synergistic Innovative Capability in Multinational Corporations: An Empirical Investigation

A substantial amount of research has focused on determining and classifying the structures of the global research and development (R&D) organization of multinational corporations (MNCs). However, little research has been undertaken to show how the various R&D structures adopted by MNCs affect their abilities to generate and deploy innovations globally. This study initiates analysis and discussion of this latter dimension, providing empirical evidence of the relationship between the coordination structures and innovative capabilities. Specifically, this study investigates how intrafirm collaborative relationships among globally dispersed R&D units of MNCs enhance the synergistic innovative capabilities of the MNC group. The nature of the collaborative relationships among globally dispersed R&D units is evaluated in the context of four well‐established structural constructs: autonomy, formalization, socialization, and communication. Synergistic innovative capability is defined as a higher‐order ability to accumulate and deploy new knowledge or to recombine existing knowledge to create new innovations more effectively and efficiently due to collaboration among globally dispersed R&D units. It is measured using 10 items commonly used in innovation management research to measure the innovativeness of firms. The analysis is based on survey data collected from 79 R&D units belonging to North American, Japanese, and European MNCs in the telecommunications, biotechnology, pharmaceutical, chemical, and automotive industries. In addition to the survey data, seven highly experienced R&D executives who have worked for several companies were interviewed by telephone in order to obtain a richer perspective of issues and a better context from which to interpret the statistical results. Respondents included personnel from the levels of director, managing director, and vice president who were directly responsible for participating R&D units. The data were analyzed using partial least squares, a structural equation modeling technique that works well with small datasets. The results indicate that synergistic innovative capability has four distinct dimensions uniquely related to the structural variables defining the nature of collaborative relationships among globally dispersed R&D units. The four dimensions of synergistic innovative capabilities are labeled strategic R&D synergy, managerial and operational synergy, knowledge management synergy, and innovative proficiency synergy. The research and managerial implications of the findings are discussed in this article.     

Colonial companies and the cost of introducing Indian immigrants into Fiji, 1884–1916

Using Fiji as a case study, I conduct the first cost accounting of government-run Indian indentureship in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. I analyse multiple official data sources and estimate the total cost of bringing Indians to Fiji was £926,851, roughly a fifth of Fiji's reported expenditure. Businesses funded 92.6% of this cost. However, business payments to the government do not appear in official Blue Books. Incorporating business payments shows that both official revenue and expenditure were underestimated by 15%. My results show how one part of colonialism was funded and how colonial fiscal capacity may be underestimated more broadly.