Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.     

Product Cycles, Innovation, and Exports: A Study of Indian Pharmaceuticals

This paper studies the product cycle and neo-technology theories of trade in the context of generic pharmaceuticals. It analyzes the export performance of 131 Indian pharmaceutical firms for the period 1989–2004. The results indicate that technology proxied by foreign patent rights has a positive impact on exports. This suggests that developing countries with innovation skills for process innovations are capable of penetrating international markets in the later stages of the product cycle by using patents, which were the barriers to trade in the early stages of the product cycle.     

Self-consciousness and emotions driving femvertising: A path analysis of women’s attitude towards femvertising,forwarding intention and purchase intention

Femvertising is making huge waves as large numbers of brands are launching campaigns marketing feminism. While promoting products brands are selling empowerment to women through marketing campaigns. As women purchasing power is increasing they provide bigger opportunity to marketers, this is the reason femvertising is the hottest trend used by advertisers to attract women customers. This study investigates the influence of self-consciousness and Need for Emotion on Attitude towards femvertising. It further sheds light on the effect of Attitude towards femvertising on forwarding intention of ad and purchase intention of the advertised brand. ANOVA was conducted to analyze the relationship between demographic profile of women respondents with their attitude towards femvertising, forwarding intention and purchase intention. Results show that individuals Private & Public self-consciousness and need for emotion influence their attitude towards femvertising. Positive attitude towards femvertising influence their forwarding intention of ad but does to lead to purchase intent. The findings revealed that intention to forward and purchase intention varies across different age groups.     

Is health care a luxury? The debate revisited with new evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the long-run relationship between health care expenditure and income using a panel data set of emerging economies over the period 1995–2012. The results show that expenditure on health care and income are non-stationary and cointegrated. After controlling for cross-sectional dependence and unobserved heterogeneity among different countries, we find that the income elasticity of health care is less than 1, indicating that health care is a necessity and not a luxury. Government expenditure and out-of-pocket expenditure turn out to be important determinants of health care expenditure. Among non-monetary factors, results show that old age dependency and female education seem to have significant bearings on health care expenditures. Policy recommendations suggest that government should increase spending on health care in emerging economies since higher incomes may not automatically translate into higher health care spending by the people of these countries.     

Linking Social Entrepreneurship and Social Change: The Mediating Role of Empowerment

Entrepreneurship is increasingly considered to be integral to development; however, social and cultural norms impact on the extent to which women in developing countries engage with, and accrue the benefits of, entrepreneurial activity. Using data collected from 49 members of a rural social enterprise in North India, we examine the relationships between social entrepreneurship, empowerment and social change. Innovative business processes that facilitated women’s economic activity and at the same time complied with local social and cultural norms that constrain their agency contributed to changing the social order itself. We frame emancipatory social entrepreneurship as processes that (1) empower women and (2) contribute to changing the social order in which women are embedded.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES AND STOCK PRICES

Investigations into business cycles have found money supply to be a lead variable to stock prices. However, some would argue that the stock market, being efficient, anticipates money supply changes and therefore, stock prices are lead variables to money supply changes. Recent developments in time series methods have facilitated the testing of these relationships through identifying bivariate and multivariate autoregressive models. However, in many cases, the results using different procedures contradict themselves and are in conflict with theoretical reasonings. In this paper the causal relationship is tested between fiscal and monetary policies and stock prices using Canadian data and bivariate andmultivariate autoregressive models.