A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

As the Chinese economy becomes more market based and continuesits rapid integration into the global economy, having an independentand effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectiveswill become increasingly important. Employing modern principlesof monetary policy in light of the current state of China'sfinancial institutions, we motivate and present a package ofproposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime.Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflationobjective, operational independence for the People's Bank ofChina (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government,and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinesebanking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). Weargue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflationobjective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tiedown inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policyto make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financialstability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoringof money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to playa useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a moneytarget would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.(JEL codes: E5 and P2)     

Career Concerns and Resource Allocation in Conglomerates

We investigate resource allocation decisions in conglomerateswhen managers are motivated by career concerns. When divisionalcash flows are differentially informative about managerial ability,we show that it is in the managers' interest to overallocateunobservable intangible resources to the more informative divisions.Anticipating this bias, it is optimal for the firm's ownersto also overallocate observable capital to the more informativedivisions. The model provides rationale for corporate socialismand corporate hedging. It also highlights a cost of segmentreporting and tracking stocks, namely, that they allow managersto distort their perceived ability at the expense of investors.     

Do Macroeconomics Channels Matter for Examining Relationship Between Public Debt and Economic Growth in India?

Inter-state disparity has been a perennial feature of Indian agriculture. The study probes if per capita income from agriculture has converged across states and finds evidence in favour of beta convergence. Spatial econometric techniques used indicate significant spatial dependence in agricultural growth. Infrastructure like roads, irrigation, and electricity, diversification in cropping pattern and quality of human capital are found to aid in growth. However, excessive rainfall tends to decrease growth rate in India. The spill-over across states are found to be primarily driven by roads, irrigation and rural literacy and we also find significant impact of spatial income growth providing evidence in favour of agglomeration effects. Hence, investments in human capital, physical infrastructure specially water management and incentives towards growing crops which yield higher returns will aid agriculture growth in India.

     

Book Reviews Recensions de livres

Book reviewed in this article: In Search of Meaning: Managing for the Health of Our Organizations, Our Communities, and the Natural World Thierry C. Pauchant Anshuman Prasad is a Visiting Professor at the University of Calgary. He co-edited Managing the Organizational Melting Pot: Dilemmas of Workplace Diversity, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1997.     

Bargaining and brinkmanship : Capital structure choice by regulated firms

A bargaining model of regulation is developed. It is shown that regulated firms can improve their bargaining positions and induce the regulator to set higher prices for firm output by choosing more debt. Firms, in choosing an optimal level of debt, trade off this bargaining advantage against expected bankruptcy costs. The model predicts that firms would tend to choose higher levels of debt in harsher regulatory environments. This prediction is shown to be consistent with cross-sectional evidence for U.S. electric utilities for the sample period 1972–1983.     

Return generating processes of long-term bonds and measurement of risk: Theory and empirical tests

Using a continuous-time framework, Kazemi (1992) shows that changes in prices of long-term bonds could be perfectly correlated with changes in the representative investor's marginal utility of wealth. Therefore, the equilibrium expected excess return on any security would be proportional to its covariance with changes in prices of long-term bonds. The present paper first extends the above result to a discrete time framework and shows that there are significant differences between the continuous time and discrete time versions of the model. Second, we test an empirical implication of this result; the evidence supports the theoretical model.