MODELING THE TERM STRUCTURE FROM THE ON‐THE‐RUN TREASURY YIELD CURVE

We propose a new model to estimate the term structure of interest rates using observed on‐the‐run Treasury yields. The new model is an improvement over models that require a priori knowledge of the shape of the yield curve to estimate the term structure. The general form of the model is an exponential function that depends on the estimation of four parameters fit by nonlinear least squares and has straightforward interpretations. In comparing the proposed model with current yield‐curve‐smoothing models, we find that, for the data used, the proposed model does best overall in terms of pricing accuracy both in sample and out of sample. JEL classification: E43, G12     

The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses About the Asian Crisis

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behaviour of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, that portfolio investors and hedge funds played a dominant role in initiating and/or spreading the crisis; that moral hazard kept efficient markets from predicting the crisis; and, finally, the common lender hypothesis of Kaminsky and Reinhart. In the process we also test implications of the Calvo-Mendoza model of rational investor ignorance. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong forms should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is necessary to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.     

Golden Parachutes: Incentive Aligners,Management Entrenchers,or Takeover Bid Signals?

In this paper we investigate the effect of golden parachute (GP) adoptions on shareholder wealth. We control for the potential effect a GP adoption has on the probability that a firm will receive a takeover bid by investigating the wealth effects for firms that are in play when the GP is adopted. We find that announcements are wealth neutral when firms are in play and wealth increasing when firms are not in play when a GP is adopted. The results suggest that GPs have no influence on the success of a tender offer, refuting the hypotheses that they either align manager and shareholder interests or that they entrench inefficient managers. The difference in the results for in-play and not-in-play firms is consistent with the hypothesis that GPs signal an increased likelihood that a firm will receive a takeover bid.     

An empirical investigation of the effectiveness of an integrated service recovery system

Although service recovery has become an increasingly-studied topic in the operations management literature, robust theories and accompanying empirical studies have only begun to emerge. For example, while many authors have identified and measured the specific activities that are perceived by consumers as effective ways to recover from failure, much less attention has been directed at the systematic structuring of recovery efforts to consistently ensure customer satisfaction and achieve improved, long-term organizational outcomes. Building on recent research that identified the principal constructs of service recovery, this study seeks to explore the relative effectiveness of an integrated service recovery system. Data from 158 service organizations are used to explore the relationship between the system and its associated recovery outcomes. Results indicate that a complete recovery system defined by seven distinct dimensions (formalization, decentralization, comprehensiveness, accessibility, influence, human intensity, and system intensity,) significantly impacts internal capability improvements as well as externally-perceived outcomes (i.e., speed, employee empathy, and recovery effectiveness) while both of these outcomes have a significant impact on customer satisfaction and market performance attributed to service recovery     

An investigation into the effect of systematic design methods in craft,design and technology (CDT)

This paper has grown out of a long standing personal concern that the current approaches to design teaching are too narrowly based and that they can distort the very activity that they set out to encourage. A survey of the comments made in Examiner's Reports of pupil's work in public design examinations during 1986 & 1987 provides some insight into the difficulties that pupils experienced in carrying out their design activities.Design activity in schools developed from the beginnings initiated by the curriculum development projects of the late 1960's and early 1970's. These put forward methodical approaches to designing which have become widely used in UK secondary schools and which are now firmly embedded in the publications and project assessment framework of the current national examinations.The present study suggests that, while these methodical approaches clearly work, they imply a logical progression of thought which does not necessarily parallel the pattern of human thinking. It is recognised that pupil's design folios written up at the end of a project can be made to describe a logical, systematic procedure which has more to do with the assessment framework than the actual developments of design ideas during the project. Indeed, teachers and candidates were being actively encouraged to base their work on these structured frameworks:The actual style and quality of the folder presentation is also important. This is particularly so when working to a detailed mark scheme. Certainly it is easier to mark a folder which broadly follows the pattern of the mark scheme than one which is very erratic. Teachers are advised as to the advantages of using the mark scheme as a teaching tool and as a guide for folder presentation. NEA, 1986.Finally, the paper examines some more recent developments in the procedural models of design activity and the way in which professional designers approach their work. These insights provide an indication of the way forward for school design work and its assessment.     

A SAM for Europe: Problems and Perspectives

This paper examines the conceptual and practical problems of constructing a social accounting matrix for Europe. It involves integrating the accounts of member countries within a complete system of regional accounts. The standard matrix framework first proposed by Stone is modified in two respects. First, functional and geographical transactions are distinguished between in order to simplify the accounting structure. Secondly, supraregional accounts are more formally incorporated so as to include accounts for the rest of the world and EC institutions, as well as to accommodate distribution and other transaction costs involved in moving goods, factors and assets between member countries. The general system of regional accounts can then be aggregated, consolidated or apportioned across member states but this has implications for both harmonizing accounts and classifications and considering the extent to which there is truly a ‘single European market’. Finally, the paper considers the availability of data and presents a preliminary compilation of aggregate accounts for three member countries.     

Immigrant earnings: age at immigration matters

A correlation between age at immigration and earnings is observed in Canadian census data. The evidence supports three underlying sources of the effect; first, work experience in the source country yields virtually no return in the host country; second, the return to education varies with age at immigration, and, finally, an 'acculturation' effect is observed for immigrants who are visible minorities or whose mother tongue is not English. Further, it is found that educational attainment, and relatedly earnings, vary systematically across age at immigration with those arriving around age 15 to 18 obtaining fewer years of education. JEL Classification: J61, J31