Intertemporal Equity and Hartwick's Rule in an Exhaustible Resource Model*

In a standard exhaustible resource model, it is known that if, along a competitive path, investment in the augmentable capital good equals the rents on the exhaustible resource (known as Hartwick's rule), then the path is equitable in the sense that the consumption level is constant over time. In this paper, we show the converse of this result: if a competitive path is equitable, then it must satisfy Hartwick's rule.     

Protection versus Promotion: An Empirical Investigation

Using Turkish industry-level data from 1983 to 1990, we find that politically organized industries receive both higher protection and promotion than unorganized ones. Tariff rates are decreasing (increasing) in the import-penetration ratio and the absolute value of the import-demandelasticity for organized (unorganized) industries. Subsidy rates are decreasing (increasing) in the output-supply elasticity for organized (unorganized) industries. The results are consistent with the predictions of the Grossman–Helpman model and its extension in this paper. The mix of protection and promotion is inversely related to the ratio of their respective marginal deadweight cost measures.     

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Intertemporal Equity and Efficient Allocation of Resources

Competitive paths which are efficient are shown to satisfy a terminal cost minimization condition, thereby providing a continuous-time counterpart to the discrete-time result due to Malinvaud. Using this result, competitive paths which are equitable and efficient are shown to satisfy Hartwick's investment rule, which states that the value of net investment is zero at each date. Our result indicates that Hartwick's rule can help to signal inefficiency of competitive equitable paths. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C61, D90, O41.     

Indefinitely sustained consumption despite exhaustible natural resources

Summary This paper analyzes the feasibility of sustaining uniformly positive consumption forever — even when flows of exhaustible resources are an indispensable input. The main result is a characterization of an economy's capability for sustaining such consumption — under quite general maintained assumptions on technology — in terms of a single, simple capital-resource substitution condition.This is a revised version of CARESS Working Paper #79-27. An even earlier preliminary paper by Mitra [1] contained the seminal idea developed more thoroughly here. Both of our research efforts were supported by the NSF, while much of Cass's participation took place during his tenure as a Sherman Fairchild Distinguished Scholar at Caltech. We thank both institutions for their support and encouragement.     

Quality dualism

We suggest a theory of quality dualism, defined in terms of the gap between the highest quality good produced in the informal sector and the lowest quality produced in the formal sector. We develop a model of vertically differentiated products, in which firms producing in the formal and informal sectors face different factor prices, and have a relative advantage in the manufacture of different qualities. We then use the model to examine the cyclical behavior of the respective sizes of the two sectors. Finally, we point out that factor price changes, which reduce or increase the size of the informal sector, may have the same or opposite effect on the degree of dualism in the economy.     

The Information Content of Dividend Initiations and Firm Size: An Analysis Using Bid-Ask Spreads

The bid-ask spread of stock prices is examined for a sample of dividend initiating firms. The average percentage and dollar bid-ask spreads increase significantly on the day preceding the Wall Street Journal Index announcement date, possibly reflecting, on average, the market maker's anticipatory uncertainty. The day -1 increase in spread is inversely associated with firm size, an information environment proxy, after considering the simultaneous effects of dividend yield, returns variance, dollar trading volume and share price. The average percentage spread declines significantly on day 0 from its day -1 level and remains lower, on average, over a 365 day post-announcement period than 90 day pre-announcement levels. Similar results are obtained for dollar spread averages. The post-announcement percentage spread decline suggests a resolution of uncertainty, and is positively associated with the dividend yield. Dividend initiation announcements appear to reduce informational asymmetry.     

Financial liberalization and remittances: Recent panel evidence

We investigate the impact of financial liberalization on remittances to 84 countries over the period 1986–2005. Explicitly accounting for the multidimensionality of financial reform, we find that the various dimensions impact remittances differently: Increased economic freedom in the financial sector, as captured by absence of direct government control over the allocation of credit, has a positive and immediate impact. However, the improved robustness of financial markets, as captured by the development of security markets, improvement in the quality of banking supervision, and removal of stringent restrictions on interest rates and international capital, has a negative and lagged effect. The net combined effect reveals that financial liberalization may have a modest negative impact on remittances in the long run.     

开放式基金在上升市场与下降市场中选时与选股能力的实证研究

选取我国10只开放式基金作为样本,根据它们的收益情况并联系市场背景,对它们基金管理人的选时与选股能力进行的实证研究表明,不同基金在市场上升和市场下降过程中所表现出来的选时能力指标和选股能力指标与整体指标并不相同.这一结论可用于基金整体性指标研究.