When do the stock market returns to new product preannouncements predict product performance? Empirical evidence from the U.S. automotive industry

Substantial research has examined how stock market reactions to marketing actions affect subsequent marketing decisions. However, prior research provides limited insights into whether abnormal stock returns to a marketing action actually predict the future performance resulting from that action. This study focuses on new product preannouncements (NPPAs) and investigates the relationship between short-term stock market returns to an NPPA and the post-launch new product performance under various industry and firm conditions. Findings based on a dynamic panel data analysis of 208 NPPAs in the U.S. automotive industry between 2001 and 2014 reveal that stock returns associated with an NPPA are not an appropriate forward-looking measure of future product performance. However, under specific conditions (i.e., when the preannouncement is specific, the preannounced new product has low innovativeness, the preannouncing firm has a high reputation and invests heavily in advertising, and the preannouncement environment is less competitive), abnormal stock returns to NPPAs actually predict the future performance of new products. Thus, this study extends the marketing–finance and innovation literature with its focus on the conditions that affect the predictive power of immediate stock returns for the future performance of new products.     

The evolution of the monetary transmission channels in Turkey: evidence from a TVP-VAR model

This article investigates the evolution of the monetary transmission mechanisms in Turkey for the period from January 1986 to December 2016. To this aim, the impacts of monetary variables on the prices and economic activity are investigated with a time-varying vector autoregressive model based on. The evidences from the time-varying responses indicate that the adoption of inflation targeting policy has markedly affected the functioning of transmission channels. The results also suggest that local and global financial crises may magnify the impact of monetary policy shocks on the overall economy.     

The effects of crowdsourcing contribution type and temporal consistency on new product development success

Extant literature suggests that individuals contribute to crowdsourcing programs in various ways but offers few insights about whether participants' creative contributions (original new product submissions) or their evaluative contributions (scoring or commenting on others' submissions) have a greater impact on their ability to create commercializable new products. Using a large-scale data set obtained from the crowdsourcing website Threadless.com, our study examines the relative impact of participants' creative and evaluative contributions and the effects of different types of evaluative contributions on submission success (i.e., a participant's ability to generate a commercializable new product). Our findings reveal that submission success is enhanced when participants generate both creative and evaluative contributions. In addition, we find that submission success depends not only on the volume of the creative contributions that a participant makes but also on the temporal consistency with which said contributions are made (i.e., adopting a consistent vs. a sporadic submission pattern). Specifically, our findings show that a participant's creative contribution consistency enhances their submission success, especially when creative contribution volume is high. This research extends the existing crowdsourcing literature by offering new insights about how contribution type and contribution consistency in a crowdsourcing program impact submission success.     

New Product Development Processes and New Product Profitability: Exploring the Mediating Role of Speed to Market and Product Quality

In new product development, faster is not always better. Conceptually, being faster to market should improve financial performance by improving product quality and reducing development expenses. Empirical support is mixed, however, demonstrating that higher speed to market exhibits an inverted U‐shaped relationship with product profitability. Conventional wisdom and empirical research suggest managers make speed to market–product quality–development expense trade‐offs. A particular concern regarding speed to market is that extreme speed may jeopardize product quality. Some researchers suggest that speed to market improves product quality while others suggest firms must balance both speed to market and product quality. Also, shorter lead times may be associated with reduced development expenses, but empirical evidence is conflicting. This research attempts to reconcile conflicting results regarding the speed to market–product quality relationship, their joint impact on product profitability, and their mediation role in the effects of development expenses and cross‐functional integration on product profitability. Partial least squares (PLS) is used to analyze multiplexed archival and survey data collected from NPD managers for 1115 different NPD projects in several firms. The results support the hypothesized equations, explaining 27% of speed to market variance, 35% of product quality variance, and 45% of product profitability variance. This study makes two contributions. First, because speed to market and product quality are related, simultaneous consideration of both factors enhances insight into their joint effect. Second, it provides evidence that speed to market and product quality jointly mediate development expense by NPD phase and cross‐functional integration effects on product profitability. Key results from the large sample data analysis include the following. Speed to market and product quality both enhance product profitability, but the impact of speed to market is larger than that of product quality. Speed to market and product quality partially mediate the impact of fuzzy front end phase expenses on product profitability, while expenses in the latter phases exhibit no impact on the mediators or profitability. Thus, the results suggest that trade‐offs are made not only between time, quality, and expense (i.e., if additional expenses are incurred at all), but also that trade‐offs relate to when (i.e., in which NPD phase) additional development expenses are incurred. Finally, cross‐functional integration (both internal and external) substantially impacts product profitability through a mix of direct and mediated effects.     

Is volatility risk priced in the securities market? Evidence from S&P 500 index options

The authors examine whether volatility risk is a priced risk factor in securities returns. Zero‐beta at‐the‐money straddle returns of the S&P 500 index are used to measure volatility risk. It is demonstrated that volatility risk captures time variation in the stochastic discount factor. The results suggest that straddle returns are important conditioning variables in asset pricing, and investors use straddle returns when forming their expectations about securities returns. One interesting finding is that different classes of firms react differently to volatility risk. For example, small firms and value firms have negative and significant volatility coefficients, whereas big firms and growth firms have positive and significant volatility coefficients during high‐volatility periods, indicating that investors see these latter firms as hedges against volatile states of the economy. Overall, these findings have important implications for portfolio formation, risk management, and hedging strategies. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:617–642, 2007     

The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets

In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total volatility. We document a negative relation to the degree of financial liberalization after controlling for size, liquidity, country, and crisis effects, especially for small and medium-sized markets. Moreover, the degree of financial liberalization transmits its negative impact on aggregated total volatility through aggregated idiosyncratic and local volatilities. Overall, our results provide evidence in favor of the view that the broadening of the investor base due to the increasing degree of financial liberalization causes a reduction in the total volatility of stock returns.     

Effectiveness of Marketing Cues on Consumer Perceptions of Quality: The Moderating Roles of Brand Reputation and Third‐Party Information

Consumers usually infer unobservable product quality by processing multiple‐quality cues in the environment. Prior research considering the simultaneous effects of marketing cues on consumer quality perceptions is sparse. Despite the growing importance of third‐party information, research examining its simultaneous effects with marketing cues on consumers’ decision making is especially absent. This research, drawing on cue‐diagnosticity, cue‐consistency, and negativity bias theories, proposes and tests a conceptual framework to reveal interplays among various marketing‐ and nonmarketing‐controlled product cues. The first study examines how two‐ and three‐way interactions of high‐scope (i.e., brand reputation) and low‐scope marketing cues (i.e., price and warranty) affect consumer perceptions. The second study examines a set of interaction effects between third‐party quality ratings and marketing cues (i.e., price and warranty) on consumers’ perceptions. Overall, the results reveal theoretical and managerial implications for processing multiple‐quality cues in consumers’ inference‐making behaviors and suggest that consumers generally aggregate perceptions in more complex ways than suggested in the prior literature when making global product quality evaluations.     

A longitudinal examination of the impact of quality perception gap on brand performance in the US Automotive Industry

A quality perception gap, defined as the difference between perceived and objective quality, indicates either consumers’ overappreciation or underappreciation of product or brand quality and can have critical effects on performance. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of a quality perception gap on brand performance and its moderating role in the relationship between marketing-mix signals and performance. Analyses based on a longitudinal dataset from the US automotive industry reveal that the relationship between the quality perception gap and brand performance has an inverted U-shape. Findings also demonstrate that, except for advertising, the impact of marketing signals on performance is higher when the quality of a brand is perceived as higher than its actual quality. Finally, over an 18-year period, the average gap between perceived and objective quality demonstrates a decreasing trend, indicating that the nature of demand in the automotive industry has become more utilitarian.