Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

Information and trade sizes: The case of short sales

In this study, we examine short selling of NASDAQ stocks and observe that more information about future returns is contained in small short sales than in medium-sized and large short sales, thus supporting the idea that NASDAQ short sellers stealth trade. These results are robust to different subsamples of stocks with and without tradable options and stocks that are more likely to face binding borrowing constraints. Further, these findings are contrary to the results in Boehmer, Jones, and Zhang (2008) who find that large NYSE short sales contain the most information. Combined, our study supports the idea that NASDAQ's bid test is less restricting than the NYSE's uptick rule and therefore attenuates the likelihood of stealth trading (Diether, Lee, & Werner, 2009a).     

The impact of demographic changes on income distribution in a developing country

"A common hypothesis regarding the distribution of income is that it tends to become more unequal in the initial and middle stages of economic development, in part because of demographic changes. However, previous studies of the effect of demographic changes on income distribution are not based on the underlying micro determinants of the income components." In the present paper, "the micro determinants of the probability of receipt and amount received conditional on receipt of four income components are estimated for three regions defined by the degree of urbanization. Five simulations of hypothetical demographic changes are conducted. The simulated effects on some of the regional income component distributions are fairly considerable in regard both to equalizing the distributions and increasing the shares of the poorest. However, the overall effects are regressive in both urban and rural regions."     

Using a mobile application to test the impact of giving feedback onteam-level conflict

The authors explored using a mobile application called DevelapMe for 278 business undergraduates in 54 teams to give real-time peer-based feedback during a 5-week group project. Two online surveys, Time 1 (T1) and Time 2 (T2), were administered. Results included finding three promising, new give-feedback scales: positive rating with comments, negative rating with comments, and negative/neutral rating without comments. Relationship conflict and task conflict were the outcomes. Relationship conflict significantly increased from T1 to T2. Only positive rating with comments had a significant relationship to T2 relational conflict and task conflict. Research exposing students to real-time feedback apps will prepare them for future work in teams.     

Human Capital Factors Affecting Human Resource (HR) Managers' Commitment to HR and the Mediating Role of Perceived Organizational Value on HR

Human resource (HR) managers’ commitment to their occupation (HR) leads to the proper delivery and implementation of HR practices and, therefore, is deemed as a critical factor for the success of HR practices. Based on sociocognitive, human capital, and signaling theories, this study examines: (a) HR managers’ own and their chief HR officer's (CHRO) HR‐specific human capital as antecedents of their commitment to HR, and (b) the mediating mechanism through which the CHRO’s HR‐specific human capital positively influences HR managers’ commitment to HR. Based on 146 HR managers from 146 organizations in South Korea, the findings of the current study suggest that HR managers with higher levels of HR‐specific human capital and those working with CHROs with higher levels of HR‐specific human capital tend to have higher levels of commitment to HR. In addition, CHROs with higher levels of HR‐specific human capital positively influence HR managers’ commitment to HR by signaling to them that HR and its function are valued and cared about by their organizations. Theoretical and practical implications of this study are discussed along with study limitations and further research directions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Capitalizing on Catastrophe: Short Selling Insurance Stocks Around Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

We develop several hypotheses regarding short‐selling activity around Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We find that abnormal short selling does not increase until 2 trading days after the landfall of Katrina and that short‐selling activity is much more significant around Rita. We find a substantial increase in short‐selling activity in the trading days prior to the landfall of Rita and relatively less short‐selling activity in the trading days after landfall. There is little evidence that suggests that traders short insurance stocks with more potential exposure in the Gulf region than other insurance stocks in the days before landfall.     

The economic and fiscal consequences of immigration: highlights from the National Academies report

Business Economics - The National Academies report The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration (Blau and Mackie 2017) summarizes recent trends in immigration numbers and...