Brand competition in CPG industries: Sustaining large local advantages with little product differentiation

In direct competition between national brands of consumer packaged goods (CPG), one brand often has a large local share advantage over the other despite the similarity of the branded products. I present an explanation for these large and persistent advantages in the context of local competition on perceived quality or brand image. The main result of the analysis is a relation between varying degrees of product similarity and equilibrium outcomes of local share advantages. Namely, I find that asymmetric quality positioning and associated local share advantages emerge especially when competing brands are objectively similar. Conversely, local share asymmetries based on brand positioning occur less when brands are dissimilar. This paper provides two reinforcing intuitions for this result. First, if brands are objectively similar, different levels of investment in local quality perceptions co-exist in equilibrium in the same market, because this investment is often borne as fixed cost. Also, early movers will invest in high perceived quality, whereas late movers have less incentive to invest because of demand sharing and increased price competition. Second, if the local advantages are shared by competitors across markets, the persistence of these advantages is reinforced by multimarket contact. Even when local brand building is free, firms may not want to improve perceived quality in their “weak” markets if it initiates retaliation by the competition in their “strong” markets. The increase in multimarket profits from collusion is large when the products are similar, because price competition looms large.

Spatial Models in Marketing

Marketing science models typically assume that responses of one entity (firm or consumer) are unrelated to responses of other entities. In contrast, models constructed using tools from spatial statistics allow for cross-sectional and longitudinal correlations among responses to be explicitly modeled by locating entities on some type of map. By generalizing the notion of a map to include demographic and psychometric representations, spatial models can capture a variety of effects (spatial lags, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial drift) that impact firm or consumer decision behavior. Marketing science applications of spatial models and important research opportunities are discussed. This paper is based upon the discussions of the Spatial Models in Marketing seminar at the Sixth Invitational Choice Symposium, June 2004. Eric T. Bradlow, Bart Bronnenberg and Gary J. Russell served as co-chairs of the session.     

Dutch Economists Top 40

There is a tradition in the Netherlands to publish an annual ranking of economic and business researchers working in Dutch universities. The most recent such ranking, published in 2013, emphasizes research quantity over research quality. We propose an alternative ranking based on quality. Important information about a researcher’s quality and impact is lost when moulding it to fit a template of numbers. Our ranking is no exception. Nevertheless, we argue and demonstrate that our ranking fits international consensus on research prominence and that the 2013 ranking does not.     

Risk Perception in the Short Run and in the Long Run

There is an ongoing controversy in financial economics regarding the role of time horizon in portfolio selection. This problem is relevant in a broader context, wherever consumers or managers make decisions that involve both time and risk. The purpose of this paper is to review recent findings from the decision making literature so as to shed new light on how the short run vs. long run contingency may determine risk taking and perception.     

Structural Applications of the Discrete Choice Model

A growing body of empirical literature uses structurally-derived economic models to study the nature of competition and to measure explicitly the economic impact of strategic policies. While several approaches have been proposed, the discrete choice demand system has experienced wide usage. The heterogeneous, or mixed, logit in particular has been widely applied due to its parsimonious structure and its ability to capture flexibly substitution patterns for a large number of differentiated products.We outline the derivation of the heterogeneous logit demand system. We then present a number of applications of such models to various data sources. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of directions for future research in this area.     

Exploring the implications of the internet for consumer marketing

Past commentaries on the potential impact of the Internet on consumer marketing have typically failed to acknowledge that consumer markets are heterogeneous and complex and that the Internet is but one possible distribution, transaction, and communication channel in a world dominated by conventional retailing channels. This failure has led to excessively broad predictions regarding the effect of the Internet on the structure and performance of product and service markets. The objective of this article is to provide a framework for understanding possible impacts of the Internet on marketing to consumers. This is done by analyzing channel intermediary functions that can be performed on the Internet, suggesting classification schemes that clarify the potential impact of the Internet across different products and services, positioning the Internet against conventional retailing channels, and identifying similarities and differences that exist between them. The article concludes with a series of questions designed to stimulate the development of theory and strategy in the context of Internet-based marketing. Robert A. Peterson holds the John T. Stuart III Centennial Chair in Business Administration and is the Charles E. Hurwitz fellow at the University of Texas at Austin. A former editor of theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science andJournal of Marketing Research, he currently chairs the board of governors of the Academy of Marketing Science. His research interests include the competitive and cooperative interface between electronic and traditional retail channels, customer equity modeling, and the application of options theory in marketing. His research interests are psychological models of economic behavior, consumer choice and choice protocols, and advertising. His work has been published in theJournal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Service, andR&D Management.     

Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions

This paper discusses the role of agents’ beliefs and their implications for the economic modeling of their behavior, in particular, their behavior over time. The paper also discusses the corresponding planning problems facing both firms and consumers in their current decision making. After a general discussion of the consumer and firm problem, we discuss recent examples of some of the emerging empirical literature on dynamic choice behavior in marketing.     

The provision of convenience and variety by the market

Consumers commonly face purchasing costs, for example, travel or wait time, that are fixed to quantity but increase with variety. This article investigates the impact of such costs on the demand and supply of variety. Purchasing costs limit demand for variety like prices limit demand for quantity. When demand for variety is low, manufacturers generally invest substantially in lowering purchasing costs, to attract consumers. In the monopolistic competition free‐entry equilibrium, providing convenience increases the demand for variety, but its costs reduce supply. The desirability of nonprice competition in convenience and its implications for variety and market concentration are discussed.     

A Dutch test with the NewProd-Model

The paper contains a report of a test of Cooper's NewProd model for predicting success and failure of product development projects. Based on Canadian data, the model has been shown to make predictions which are 84% correct. Having reservations on the reliability and validity of the model on theoretical grounds, we set out to test it using data collected in the Netherlands.
Following Cooper's methodology, we selected 19 projects, which had already been marketed and of which 9 were clearcut successes and 10 clearcut failures. We also studied 9 additional projects, which had not yet been commercialised, as the basis for a future a priori test. The projects were given a product score according to Cooper's criteria, and predictions compared with the actual experience. Eightyfour percent were correctly classified, as in Cooper's work. From a practical point of view however the variance was too large to allow the predictions from NewProd to be used with confidence to predict outcomes unless they are clearcut.
We believe that the drawback of the methodology is that the product score is a simple combination of the various factors involved. No allowance is made for the possibility that one factor alone might be responsible for failure. We have therefore introduced the concept of a threshold value for each factor. A project for which any factor falls below this value will be deemed a failure. Based on a very limited sample of 19 cases an improvement of reliability was made to 95% of 18 out of 19 products correctly classified. The NewProd concept so modified is being applied to the sample of 9 as yet uncompleted projects, and its predictions will eventually be compared with actual outcomes.