The Delphi method, impeachment and terrorism: Accuracies of short-range forecasts for volatile world events

Two experiments examined the effects of iterated polling and feedback on prediction accuracy for volatile world events using the Delphi paradigm. In both experiments, participants predicted rapidly changing geopolitical events. The first experiment occurred during the litigation surrounding the Clinton/Lewinsky affair in 1998. Results indicated that feedback improved individual and group accuracy for predictions of whether an event would occur. These types of predictions derived from group consensus were approximately 90% accurate, which was significantly higher than the average individual participant's accuracy. Neither polling nor feedback had much effect on time course predictions. The second experiment occurred during the American military action against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. In Experiment 2, participants were polled three times to determine if increasing the number of iterated polls would improve Delphi accuracy. The results showed that accuracy improved from the first to the second poll but not from the second to the third. The groups predicted whether these scenarios would occur with approximately 75% accuracy, which was significantly higher than the accuracy of any individual participant. Once again, the Delphi procedure did not enhance time course predictions in Experiment 2.     

Culture,Attitudes, and Media Patterns in China,Taiwan, and the U.S.: Balancing Standardization and Localization Decisions

ABSTRACT

A study was undertaken to examine cultural orientations, attitudes toward advertising, and media use patterns across China, Taiwan, and the United States. China and Taiwan share similar cultural backgrounds, yet their economies and advertising industries have evolved quite differently due to different social and political settings. The United States was included to provide a point of comparison. Understanding media patterns, cultural orientations, and attitudes can help better ascertain the potential for using standardized strategies by international advertisers across different markets. Industry and consumer trends in evolving markets can also be monitored. Consumers in China and Taiwan were found to be more similar than different. For example, consumers in both markets were less individualistic and more collectivistic than their counterparts in the U.S. They also exhibited more favorable attitudes toward advertising than American consumers. Furthermore, Chinese and Taiwanese respondents spent significantly more time with print media than American respondents. Implications of the findings for balancing standardization and localization decisions are discussed.     

Examining the relative influence of upper echelons ties on IPO underpricing

Integrating signaling theory with insights derived from the attention based view, this study addresses the question of which types of upper echelons ties initial public offering (IPO) markets value more. Specifically, we argue that the signals conveyed by upper echelons ties with publicly traded firms are perceived by IPO equity markets as more valuable than upper echelons ties with privately held firms. Additionally, we contend that the signals sent by external directorates with publicly traded firms are perceived more favorably by IPO equity markets than managerial ties with publicly traded firms. The theory in this study is tested on a sample of 366 firms than underwent their IPOs during 1997. The results of hypothesis tests provide partial support for our arguments.     

Social capital as a distinctive feature of Social Economy firms

In recent years, the growing importance in developed countries of the Social Economy sector and the contribution of social capital to regional economic development are being studied in depth. Linking these two fields of research, the aim of the present work is to analyse the social capital endowments of Social Economy firms in comparison to those in traditional profit-maximizing firms. To do so, a literature review will be firstly carried out to clarify both the concept of social capital and, more specifically, its relation with entrepreneurship and social enterprises. In the empirical section, the social capital endowments both of social firms (cooperatives and owned-worker enterprises) and traditional firms are compared using data from two surveys conducted in Andalusia, a lagged Spanish region with long tradition in the Social Economy sector. Results show that social capital endowments measured through cooperation agreements and company links with local suppliers and costumers are higher in cooperatives and worker-owned companies. Therefore, Andalusian authorities must continue with its support policy to these enterprises as a mean to reinforce the regional economic development.     

Agricultural Leadership Education: Past History,Present Reality,and Future Directions

The article explores the past, present, and projected future of agricultural leadership education. Beginning with roots in youth leadership development and grounded in land‐grant universities, agricultural leadership education has undergone a shift from working primarily with rural youth to a new focus on also educating undergraduate and graduate students to empower community members and create change. The renewed focus has encouraged recent growth and in the last 10 years, the profession has added three leadership majors, six leadership minors, seven leadership focus areas, seven undergraduate leadership programs, and four graduate leadership programs. Research exploring the student impact of agricultural leadership education revealed that nationwide a total of 7,904 students are exposed to 208 agricultural leadership education courses. As the discipline continues to mature, recommendations are made for continued program development. Discussion highlights prior research examining potential courses to include types of experiences, program objectives, and career connectedness relating to agricultural leadership education. Programs have ample opportunity for future growth and recommendations are made to continue the development of innovative leadership opportunities and consistent pedagogical practices across institutions.     

Convergence across American and Korean young adults: socialisation variables indicate the verdict is still out

A study was undertaken to examine consumer socialisation variables among Korean and American young adults. Many studies have been undertaken that focus on American consumers and the consumer socialisation process, but very few cross-cultural studies exist on this topic. However, efforts are increasing to suggest that consumers are converging on a global scale and research is needed to adequately assess the reality of these claims. Specifically the research explored Korean and American consumers’ media use patterns and the believed importance of different agents (media and interpersonal) for consumption-related information. The study also examined the relative importance of social structural variables on consumers’ perceived influences of key socialisation agents. Results indicate that American and Korean consumers are quite similar in how they allocate their time across media. Both groups spent the most time with television and the internet. However, differences were evident in the perceived importance of information sources, as well as the influence of socialisation agents when making purchase decisions. These differences do call into question the ability of standardised advertising campaigns and the ability to present one strategy to a unified global target market. Implications for advertisers and consumer researchers are provided.     

The Effects of Performance Rating, Leader–Member Exchange, Perceived Utility, and Organizational Justice on Performance Appraisal Satisfaction: Applying a Moral Judgment Perspective

The performance appraisal process is increasingly seen as a key link between employee behaviour and an organization’s strategic objectives. Unfortunately, performance reviews often fail to change how people work, and dissatisfaction with the appraisal process has been associated with general job dissatisfaction, lower organizational commitment, and increased intentions to quit. Recent research has identified a number of factors related to reactions to performance appraisals in general and appraisal satisfaction in particular. Beyond the appraisal outcome itself, researchers have found that appraisal reactions are affected by perceptions of fairness and the relationship between the supervisor and the employee. To explain the relationships among these factors, the present article proposes a moral cognition perspective. We suggest that employees judge a performance appraisal from the perspective of its moral justifiability, and that appraisal reactions will be determined, at least in part, by the perceived moral justifiability of the process. The proposal was supported by results from a survey of government employees using measures of performance ratings, leader–member exchange, perceived utility, and organizational justice.     

The Impact of a New Retail Brand In-Store Boutique and its Perceived Fit with the Parent Retail Brand on Store Performance and Customer Spending

With data from a specialty apparel retailer, we present two studies that investigate the impact of an in-store boutique displaying merchandise of a new retail brand on overall performance of the parent stores in which the boutiques are placed, and on customer spending on merchandise offered by each of the two brands. Findings from the two studies generally support that the in-store boutique enhances three key store-level metrics: average customer transaction value per store visit; comparable sales growth from one year to the next; and customer conversion ratio. At the customer-level both studies show that average customer transaction value on merchandise offered by the new brand is negatively related to average customer transaction value on the parent brand, and vice versa. Furthermore, both studies reveal that the relationship between the perceived fit between the two brands and average customer transaction value on the parent brand increases at an increasing rate (positive main and quadratic effects of perceived fit), but that the impact of perceived fit on average customer transaction value on the in-store boutique brand increases at a deceasing rate (positive main effect, but a negative quadratic effect of perceived fit). Implications for retail practice and theory are offered.