Immigration: then,now, and in the future

The author examines recent changes in immigration flows to the United States. Consideration is given to the increase in Caribbean, Chinese, Indian, and Muslim immigration, which he attributes to today's lower costs of air travel. The negative impact of the ability to return home easily and cheaply on migrants' desire to fully acculturate into U.S. society is noted. Mention is made of the need for new international migration policies to meet the needs of guest workers and consultants.     

Risks and threats to civilization, humankind, and the earth

This paper is a brief look at a wide range of risks that are said to present great threats to humankind. It was stimulated by several interacting factors. First, too many books and articles about astrophysical catastrophes, in the scientific and semi-scientific press, give relatively little attention to their timeframe or the measures to anticipate and prepare for them. Second, and most important, is that the overblown effects of 9/11 have distorted the United States of America's perspective and agenda on catastrophes. The result is that billions of dollars have been wasted and attention turned away from threats that could be truly catastrophic for the United States and, in many cases, for the rest of the world. Third, are books that have become popular by raising the threat that what will happen to us will be similar to what happened to earlier societies such as the Maya and the Easter Islanders. Most notably among these is Jared Diamond's Collapse [Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, Penguin Group, 2005]. The failure in these doomsday arguments is to overlook the greater sophistication, knowledge, awareness, monitoring and preparation currently in the United States and in other parts of the globe. The institutional structure and scientific knowledge today would either prevent or deal with the kind of socio-economic decline anticipated by the “collapse” arguments. In contrast several geophysical and celestial risks do imply global catastrophe. The value of this paper is as broad background to the specific scenario papers that follow. While it leans heavily on the work of others, it offers three new features for the analysis of any extreme risk. First is a scale of devastation, based on deaths. Second is a comprehensive time frame—now to the end of the Earth. Third is an outline of general questions that must be addressed for any risk, however large or small, if it is to provide insight into policy choices and promote systemic thinking.     

Book notes

International Journal of Technology and Design Education -     

Aspects of innovation: Public policy issues in telecommunications development

The author considers the potential for innovation in various telecommunication technologies. Unfamiliar concepts may be generated by the introduction of a new technology, the uses of technology, abuses and their consequences, and cross-fertilisation with other fields. After discussing possible futures, he analyses the implications of a general model of change associated with the introduction of a major technology, and concludes by stressing the urgent need for research aimed at anticipating desirable and undesirable impacts.     

Creating integrated performance systems: the business of the future

Organized around the concept of integrated performance system, suppliers will not sell physical technologies. They will sell the output of physical technologies. They will sell the output of physical systems. Whether that service is meals or heating and cooling, the supplier will have strong incentives to provide the most efficient and effective technological base in order to optimize performance. Integrated performance systems are envolving under a variety of sponsorships. They offer great business opportunities, stimulate technical innovation, increase efficiency in use of energy and resources, and provide customers and customers with much sought-after, high quality, reliable choices.